Tag Archives: Politics

Monday miscellany…

20 Monday Jan 2020

Posted by in Hs2, Journalism, Musings, Photography, Politics, Travel

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Today’s been yet another mixed bag where I’ve been keeping a wary eye on the world whilst keeping occupied scanning a selection of old slides – both rail and travel. I was up early in order to get another selection of travel shots from Brazil under my belt. That particular album’s coming along quite nicely now as I’m 2/3 of the way through the first folio and I’ll soon be starting on the selection from the island of Fernando do Noronha. Meanwhile, here’s a sample of one of today’s images from Olinda in Pernambuco state. It’s an incredibly colourful old town with some fine old buildings. You can find the rest of the Brazilian pictures here.

In order to add variety I’m simultaneously scanning some old rail shots from 1990. The idea will be to swap between rail and travel so there’s always something of interest to someone. of course, the railways looked very different in 1990 as privatisation wasn’t even on the agenda at that time.

In those days Euston was still dominated by electric locomotives – as this picture shows.

From front to back are 86205, 86406, 86414, 86228 and 87014. 6th May 1990.

I was passing through Euston to head on up to an open day at Bescot locomotive depot just outside Birmingham. The depot put on a good show with a large variety of locomotives on display, including some withdrawn examples like 47901 here in the foreground. The weather was ideal for such an event and I certainly chewed through some film that day!

I’m still scanning the Bescot shots which you’ll be able to find in this gallery when they’re all done.

Whilst I was busy scanning the media was full of the latest leak about HS2 and a supposed ‘draft’ of the Oakervee report. Initially reported in the Financial Times the story was soon picked up by other outlets including the BBC. The leak was an odd one as it seems to have come from within government. It was soon clear that it was more spin than fact, as Andrew Sentance (one of the Oakervee Committee members made clear to the BBC. here’s how it was covered on Twitter by the BBC’s Rory Cellan-Jones..

Sentence also had this to say (via the BBC).

Yet again HS2 gets caught up in political games in Downing St. Mind you, HS2 isn’t the only mixed message coming out of No 10. There’s also the whole farce around Brexit the economy and promises made by Johnson to car makers before the election that have already fallen by the wayside. Let’s face it, when you have a Prime Minister who’s been sacked twice for lying you can hardly trust them, can you? Johnson may have an 80 seat majority but it’s becoming clear that his government isn’t coherent or clear in purpose. Improving the UKs infrastructure post Brexit is meant to be one of their big ideas, but the message is already riven by briefings and counter briefings, such as on HS2, which suggests a Government that’s less than united. It would be very interesting to know who in Government is briefing against HS2. Cummings?

Northern and Midlands leaders and several MPs have reacted with fury to these games by Downing St, demanding the the Oakervee review’s published so that there can’t be any more spin about its contents. We will have to see if they get their wish anytime soon…

Away from the shenanigans in Downing St it’s clear that the Harvil Rd protest has fizzled out again. Despite a few dozen Extinction Rebellion supporters and StopHs2’s Joe Rukin pitching up to make a few self-congratulatory videos claiming they’d ‘retaken’ Harvil Rd (they hadn’t) most of them had already drifted off by Sunday. It’s now business as usual as a visit to the ‘Protect the Colne Valley’ Facebook page will show. The flow of Facebook videos has dried up and work to clear the site continues pretty much unhindered.

Thursday thoughts…

09 Thursday Jan 2020

Posted by in Harvil Rd Hs2 protest, Hs2, Musings, Politics, Railways

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Today’s been yet another day that’s seen me ensconced in the office at home trying to sort out the archives and get together a complete picture library of a clients entire train fleet. To say it’s time consuming is rather an understatement as they’ve rather a large portfolio! Still, it’s given me chance to search through the archive and spot potential gaps that will need filling in the future.

I’ve not been missing much by being stuck indoors as the weather here in the Pennines has hardly been conducive to photography. We’ve been suffering from the tail end of the gales that have been a feature of Northern and Scottish weather these past few days, but at least they’ve kept the rain away – even if the clouds have been the colour of thunder! As I normally escape to sunnier climes this time of year I’m starting to miss the warmth and sunshine. I don’t mind the odd dull day, but this is getting monotonous.

I’m hoping to make a bid for freedom for at least a few hours tomorrow as I need to get some shots that will fill a hole in the library. The railways are changing at an accelerated rate at the moment. What was current just six months ago is rapidly becoming dated and that process is likely to quicken through the year. Who knows what the railways will look like by this time next year with so many franchises in financial difficulties, despite (or even because of) the introduction of new trains.

Whilst I’ve been slogging through the archives I’ve also been keeping one eye on the debacle of the anti HS2 protest camp at Harvil Rd. It’s all over bar the moaning now as despite the histrionics and squeals of outrage about ‘illegal evictions’ from the tiny band there, it’s obvious it’s all ended with a whimper, which has set me thinking.

I’m no stranger to these events myself, having attended various demonstrations and protests since the late 1970s right up to the present day and the rallies against the Brexitshambles. I’ve a large archive of pictures on social issues that have never seen the light of day, from miners demonstrations with the likes of Arthur Scargill, the infamous poll tax riot in London in 1990 to the Iraq war demonstrations of 2003. I’ve been ‘kettled’ with demonstrators in central London and dodged missiles in Trafalgar Sq, as well as experienced curfews and general strikes in Kathmandu and India and protests for reform in Indonesia. Oh, and that’s without mentioning the ‘free festival’ circuit in the UK back in the 70s-80s, all of which make Harvil Rd look so ridiculous and so pathetic.

Which brings me back to my point. What a shambles that protest camp was. Compared to the protests about road building in the 70s-90s it was nothing more than a joke. They had 2 years to dig in and prepare for an eviction and at least put up some sort of a struggle. Instead, they gave up meek as lambs as it was clear they were woefully unprepared. It was more playing at being ‘eco-warriors’ rather than being serious about it. They spent more time swanning off to poorly attended PR stunts than actually organise a credible camp. Their reliance on and belief in social media was also part of their undoing. During the eviction Keir was busy filming it all to stick on Facebook and constantly appealing for all those armchair activists who were watching (which in truth was sod all) to ride to their rescue like the cavalry. They never turned up. Why? Because much of social media is little more than voyeurism. I’ve documented many StopHs2 events over the years and there’s one common denominator, how few bodies there are at them! It’s something they’ve never understood. Keyboard warriors and Twitter trolls and bots never turn up – because most of them don’t exist in the real world.

When I’ve had chance to do some research and scan some old pictures I’ll write a blog devoted to examining the difference between environmental protests 40 year ago and today. There’s a rich irony. 40 years ago the internet didn’t exist. The best protestors had was Xeroxed newsletters and telephone trees, yet they managed to organise on a far more impressive scale and attract national attention at some real stand-offs with the authorities. At Harvil Rd they were too busy thinking their endless tedious videos on their cosy Facebook groups or on Twitter, Instagram and suchlike actually meant something. They played to an audience of imaginary friends and basked in the fact they had so many hits or likes, as if all those voyeurs were actually contributing anything worthwhile. If they’d spent half the time they had on social media onanism they might have actually achieved something, but that’s always been a weakness of the anti HS2 campaign. Some of them genuinely think that MPs are going to be swayed by a few anonymous Twitter trolls spouting inane rubbish.

I can imagine someone getting a really interesting thesis out of this…

Anyway, enough of this for now. Hopefully tomorrow will see me back on the rails for the first time in 2020. If it does, expect a rolling blog documenting my travels and travails…

Another stopHs2 failure as the Harvil Rd 'protest' camp is evicted.

07 Tuesday Jan 2020

Posted by in Harvil Rd Hs2 protest, Hs2, Politics, Railways, StopHs2

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Earlier this morning the Court Bailiffs and police moved in to evict the oldest and largest of the StopH2 protest camps at Harvil Rd near Uxbridge. You can view the farce via a video posted on the StopHs2 website here.

It’s interesting for several reasons. Firstly, it shows how few people are actually there. Whilst there’s a rag-bag of 20 odd tents very few of them seem to be occupied. It’s like they’ve been left there by ‘weekend warriors’ just to make the camp look bigger and busier than it really is. In fact, very few protestors can be seen on camera, just the same old faces such as Mark Keir, the serially failed Green Party candidate, plus Sarah Green, the ‘star’ of various PR stunts the antis have tried to pull. One of the things I found fascinating about these videos was just how poorly prepared these camps were for the arrival of the Bailiffs. They knew they would come one day, so what the hell have they been doing these past two years? Remember the old days when protesters dug tunnels to hide in and had aerial ropeways between treehouses so they could resist for as long as possible and make life as difficult as they could for the police and bailiffs? This camp was a shambles in comparison, a few scattered tents and pallets used as walkways across the mud. It looked more like the place where people went to hang out, drink beers and smoke dope whilst recording endless boring social media video’s where they’d bluster about how they were going to stop Hs2.

In the background to the videos you can hear what the protesters have utterly failed to stop – HS2 contractors continuing to build access roads for construction of HS2.

As usual, you have people like Green trying to argue black is white with the Court Bailiff, claiming that the eviction is ‘illegal’. Unsurprisingly, the Bailiff refuses to get drawn into a pointless argument. As it’s now almost afternoon and no more videos have appeared – much less a victorious one from the protesters) it’s probably safe to assume that they’re too busy packing their bags! I’ll update this blog when I have more news.

There’s an even more telling video which stophs2 haven’t put up on their website but you can view it on their Facebook page. It’s a 22 minute long cameraphone video filmed by Mark Keir. You can find it here. In it, you can hear him describing the police and bailiffs as ‘scum’, whilst (hypocritically) being nice as pie to people’s faces. In contrast, the Court Officers are unfailingly polite and helpful, offering the maximum co-operation and concern for the protesters whilst executing their duties and the court order. There’s an even more ridiculous video from Sarah Green here where Green rants on and on about the eviction being ‘illegal’ like a broken record as a protestor is restrained and removed with police observing. I can’t help but think of the old expression “Barrack-room Lawyer” every time I hear Green spout. Meanwhile the man being removed calls everyone “scum” and “criminals” in between his theatrical screams. What Green and the others completely failed to understand (despite the Bailiff explaining it to then very patiently) was that he was enforcing the eviction under the terms of a Compulsory Purchase Order warrant and this confers the legal right to evict them and no notice or ‘eviction order’ is necessary. A good clear explanation of the law regarding CPO evictions in exactly these circumstance is here.

In his video Keir constantly calls for assistance from imaginary Facebook/social media friends, bemoaning the fact that there are so few people at the camp as Twyford Down this ain’t! One of the great weaknesses of these protests is they’ve always been tiny in comparison to the efforts of the anti road building protests of the 1980s-90s. Partly because the protesters have fallen for their own social media hype. They’ve confused Twitter trolls and keyboard warriors with genuine support, then are incredulous when these ‘people’ fail to materialise in real life! There’s something else that’s telling. I’ve always said that social media is a double-edged sword. It can expose your weaknesses or highlight your strengths. As always with the anti HS2 campaign, it’s the former, not the latter. Look how few views or comments any of these videos posted to social media have!

Is this the end for the Harvil Rd protest? Probably. I doubt there’s anywhere else left for them to set up camp nearby without them rapidly being evicted. No doubt some of them may drift off to another of the handful of poorly supported camps on the route, but the end result will be the same. What have they stopped? Nothing.

Meanwhile, the Government has announced that infrastructure will be one of the main planks of its policies over the next Parliamentary term. Chancellor Savid Javid has promised an ‘infrastructure revolution’ in his March budget. Now, does that sound like a Government that’s about to cancel HS2 to you? Can you seriously imagine Javid standing up in a packed House of Commons to say “I would like to talk to you about my infrastructure revolution, but first I’d like to announce that I’m cancelling the biggest infrastructure project in Western Europe!”

UPDATE (17:13).

The protesters friend in the media have now picked up on the story with The Guardian carrying it on their website. According to the Graun’, three protesters were arrested during the eviction. I’m assuming these will be for obstruction, so unless they’ve done something really stupid they’ll probably be released without charge as there’s little point in wasting the police and courts time prosecuting them – which is no bad thing. Misguided they may be, but they have a right to protest as long as they stay within the law and it’s important that right is upheld in a democracy.

Harvil Rd camp was the biggest and oldest of all five anti HS2 protest camps. It was set up in October 2017 but it’s achieved nothing. It’s never stopped work on the site, merely delayed it a few times. It certainly hasn’t stopped HS2. All it’s really achieved is keep a tiny corner of social media alive with pointless videos, polemics, conspiracy theories and fake news.

The irony of the Guardian covering this is that the newspaper has a very good gallery of the Twyford Down protests in 1992-93. These were against the building of the new M3 motorway and they really put today’s tiny StopHs2 ‘direct action’ protests into perspective. You can find the gallery here.

I suspect this setback is going to be quite an important one for the anti HS2 campaign. ‘Direct action’ was their last resort, but it’s clear that the number have never amount to anything more than a minor nuisance. With the forthcoming announcement on HS2 going ahead expected very soon this could well break the back of what’s left of their campaign. Whilst a few stragglers may remain around the camp it’s clear that their days are numbered as they’ve completely failed in their objectives. It seems some of the locals will be glad to see the back of them too, as this comment on the StopHs2 Facebook page to todays news shows!

Looks like StopHs2’s Joe Rukin better stop playing at being ‘Swampy’ and redouble his efforts to look for a real job!

More ado about nothing. The Berkeley HS2 'report' that wasn't.

05 Sunday Jan 2020

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Today the social and mainstream media are full of a man and his supposed ‘report’ on HS2. Lord Tony Berkeley, a long-time opponent of HS2 has appeared on TV to push his ‘alternative’ to the Oakervee review on HS2 – the one he was the Deputy Chairman of but who was never going to agree with because he was very much in a minority. In fact, the report should be subtitled “Me, myself, I”…

His interview on Sky’s ‘Sophy Ridge on Sunday’ show was a classic example of saying nothing of substance whilst pretending you have. His claims were so heavily caveated they were worthless. Here’s a couple of examples. “My report suggests that the project is completely out of control” Well, no equivocation there then! He then goes on to say that HS2 “doesn’t benefit the North and Midlands in the way that upgrading existing lines could”. Wait, what?

Perhaps being appointed to the Lords means that you instantly start suffering from senility and memory loss, as Berkeley (despite all his years as Chair of the Railfreight Group) has mysteriously forgotten that we spent £9bn upgrading the West Coast Main Line just 15 years ago! Because, whichever way you look at Berkeley’s claim, it’s brass-necked, weapons-grade bollocks and Berkeley knows it, as do all the people who’ve worked on HS2 and the alternatives to providing the capacity the railways need to get modal shift from road to rail from air and road and tackle climate change. So why is he peddling such untruths? What’s his (new) agenda, other than that as a man scorned for coming up with his own daft versions of HS2 stations in London (the ridiculous claim that you could build an underground HS2 station at Euston).

There’s more. Later in the interview, after accusing everyone of “fiddling the figures” on HS2. Berkeley says that “I believe Parliament’s been misled” Then goes on to say “I believe the figure that’s right is about £107bn”. He then admits under questioning that “everything’s an estimate” but pulls another rabbit out of the hat by saying “this project is probably 2-3 times overbudget before the construction’s even started”.

Listening to Berkely is like going to a ‘happy clappy’ Evangelical church, only the amount of times you here “I believe” is probably less in the Church!

Where’s the evidence for any of these claims? It’s never been published, it’s certainly never been peer-reviewed. This is very much a one-man and his dog ‘report’ (the dog being Michael Byng, who Berkeley follows like the proverbial).

In short, we have lots of suggestions, and beliefs, but sod-all verifiable facts. Perhaps I can get Sky news to interview me because I ‘believe’ the moon’s made of green cheese and that the earth’s actually flat – as both claims have as much validity as Berkeley’s, because – at the end of the day – what’s Berkeley said that’s new, or ‘news’? Nothing. This is simply a rehash of claims he’s been making for months.

In a few days time all the froth around this supposed ‘report’ will die down. Already a Government Minister (OK, it’s Dominic Raab, but you can’t have everything) has poured cold-water on the idea the Government are taking this seriously in this interview.

Once the fog has cleared, all that will be left is the smoke and smell from Berkeley’s burning bridges…

UPDATE (16.55).

It seems Berkeley has published his report, which can be found here. I’ve not had chance to read it all yet, merely his summary, which is (quite frankly) bonkers and makes some classic errors. According to Berkeley, we don’t need phase 2b of HS2. All we have to do is re-instate old sections of four -track railway and Bob’s your Uncle!

This completely ignores several important issues.

1. In many cases that’s impossible as the formations have been built on since the lines were reduced to two tracks. To do so would be horrendously expensive and it wouldn’t raise line speeds one bit. We return the network to ‘pre-Beeching’ – as if that’s the answer to future needs! No speed increases, no curing bottlenecks, no grade separated junctions – just put it back like it was in the early 1960s. It’s sort of classic nostalgia, lack of ambition and backward thinking that’s bedevilling this country.

2. All it would do is replicate the problem we have now – mixed traffic, mixed speed railways that are funnelled through the same old chokepoints! How would it make the railways more attractive to passengers and get the sort of modal shift we need? He’s no answer.

3. How much extra capacity would this add? Berkeley has no answer.

4. It completely ignores why we’re building HS2 in the first place, to free up capacity on the existing network by running high-speed, intercity services on their own lines, this removing the problem of them eating up capacity on the existing network and freeing up the space for more regional, local and freight services. Berkeley has decided we don’t need HS2 then tried to cobble together a series of spurious justifications for that conclusion.

I’ll go through his full report later in the week when I have time. Right now it’s painfully obvious that it’s just the same opinionated, fact-free nonsense as his interviews, full of “I believe”, “I consider”, “I conclude”, “I think” – it’s all about him and no-one else. He’s right and everybody else is wrong, from top to bottom. It’s a solo work of real egotism. What does Berkeley actually *know*, or even prove? As his report shows, very little – at all. It’s one man’s supposition. Actually, belay that – it’s two, because there’s two strings to this report that can be summed up thus, what ‘Berkeley believes’ and what ‘Michael Byng sez’…

HS2 antis get their numbers in a twist!

23 Monday Dec 2019

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Yesterday, the Sunday Telegraph carried their latest anti HS2 nonsense when they reported that “Dozens of MPs” had signed a letter opposing HS2. There was only one problem, it was complete nonsense and a classic of the Sub-Editor’s art where the headline bears no relation to what’s in the article. Why? Because the letter was actually signed by less than two dozen MPs. In fact, only 21 had signed it.

Even the increasingly down – market Telegraph realised that this fiction was a bridge to far for many of its readers to swallow and soon dropped the ‘dozens’ claim from its website, but not before the tiny bunch of people still opposing HS2 has worked themselves up into a frenzy, sharing the original tweet. Here’s an example.

Here’s part of the Tel’s article, which reveals that things are not exactly as was claimed.

“New” group? No. it’s an old one resurrected, as the actual letter from the 21 makes clear.

Unsurprisingly, the letter also reveals that the majority of these MPs are from constituencies on the route of HS2. It also reveals they’re nearly all of a particular dogmatic wing of the Tory party, the Brexity section that’s allied with the political lobbyists ensconced in 55 Tufton St, in other words, the ‘Taxpayers Alliance’ (who never reveal who funds them, or how much UK tax they actually pay – if any) and their fellow travellers the IEA.

The idea that they’re somehow growing political force that threatens HS2 is what they’d like you to believe. The truth is rather different, for several reasons. Firstly, the newly MPs who oppose HS2 don’t make up for the numbers of anti HS2 MPs who’ve left Parliament such a Kate Hoey, Kelvin Hopkins, Dennis Skinner, Frank Field or Madeline Moon. They (mostly) just represent a different party. Let’s crunch some numbers. A total of 41 MPs voted against Phase 1 of HS2 back in 2014. Only 20 of them are still MPs. Several of the 20 that are left from the original 41 such as Hollobone, Fabricant and Davis, have signed this letter.

Of the 20 remaining opposers of Phase 1, seven did a volte-face to back building Phase 2a. leaving a grand total of just 15 MPs objecting, showing that they’re hardly a united or coherent front. We can expect this to happen again when the Phase 2b bill passes through Parliament.

The letter also exposes the fact these MPs really don’t have a clue what to do about HS2, hence the mixed messages about it. No doubt some would like to see it stopped, others are aware that campaigning against it would leave them with a battle on their hands as they’d face stiff opposition form local business groups like LEPs, Chambers of Commerce, transport groups and elected Mayors.

Whichever way you cut the numbers it’s clear that the opposition to HS2 in Parliament hasn’t grown, it’s mostly just changed party. This leaves Labour in an interesting position. Keeping their strong support for HS2 could well help them win votes back in the North as the limited real opposition to HS2 remains concentrated in the Tory shires and the Chilterns which they’ll never win anyway. It also leaves Johnson in a position that if he wants to hold onto the North he has to deliver on his promises to ‘rebalance’ the economy and invest in infrastructure and cancelling HS2 would send entirely the wrong message. Also, Phase 1 is a done deal as it has Royal Assent, there’s nothing the Chiltern/phase 1 Tory MPs can do other than posture as there’s no more votes in Parliament in regard to that phase, which leaves them in a bit of a bind. Voting against Phase 2b won’t stop Phase 1, but it could lead to some interesting conversations for ‘newbie’ MPs with the whips office, conversations ambitious new MPs may not want to have. Why provoke the ire of your party bosses over something you can’t win?

Whatever happens, don’t expect a resurrected “HS2 Review Group” have any more success in stopping HS2 than its previous incarnation.

Election result. What does it mean for HS2?

14 Saturday Dec 2019

Posted by in Hs2, Politics, StopHs2

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With the last result declared, Johnson’s Government now has a clear majority of 80. He no longer needs the backing of parties like the DUP and it waters down the influence of special interest groups or rebels.

As I predicted, the StopHs2 campaign had a lousy election. Long on bluster, they’ve always been short of any serious political influence and this is obvious in the results. They were never a genuine threat to any MPs on the route. A good example is on the phase 2b route at Erewash where Maggie Throup, the local Tory MP has always made her support for HS2 plain. Despite the fact their was a vociferous anti Hs2 candidate standing against her for the Green Party (Brent Poland) and there’s a local Stophs2 ‘action’ group she increased her majority by 4.4%!

Meanwhile, over in Bolsover, the prominent anti-HS2 MP and Labour veteran, Dennis Skinner lost his seat! What’s been crystal clear is that the big issue has been Brexit, not Hs2.

Here’s a bit of number crunching. Of the 41 MPs who voted against Hs2 Phase 1 back In 2014, just 20 of them are still MPs. Plus, 7 of those 20 actually voted FOR Hs2 phase 2a! Whilst a few new MPs have stated their opposition it doesn’t affect the numbers. For example. Labour’s John Barron in Rother Valley who was opposed to HS2 has been replaced by a Tory MP with the same stance. Some of the new Tory MPs in the Chilterns are making noises about HS2, but it’s nothing more than posturing to keep some of the locals happy. Phase 1 is a done deal, there are no more votes in Parliament to be had.

Where does this leave HS2? Johnson’s Conservatives made big inroads into the Labour heartland of the North and Midlands. He now has to deliver on his promises to the people who’ve lent him their votes. He’s promised to ‘level the field’ between North and South and invest in infrastructure. Cancelling HS2 would send entirely the wrong message to people who have bought into his promises. He can’t ‘get Brexit done’ and he needs their votes again in five years time. With Hs2 (and NPR) he can at least offer them something tangible.

During the election campaign Johnson made it clear that he’d go along with the recommendations of the Oakervee review of HS2. As the leaked report shows Oakervee recommends building HS2 in its entirety. Does anyone seriously expect Johnson to cancel it? There might be some tweaks to the Phase 2b route, but it’s worth remembering that another scheme Johnson backs (Northern Powerhouse Rail) will share 50% of Hs2 Phase 2’s tracks. You won’t get one without the other.

Of course, Johnson’s government could cut the cost of HS2 by renegotiating some of the construction contracts which have loaded on costs due to the transfer of risk from Hs2 to the contractors, which would make a lot of sense and save billions, making him popular all round and pull the rug from under the remaining HS2 objectors.

My prediction is that we’ll see Hs2 phase 1 get the go-ahead very quickly to end the uncertainty and Phase 2a resume its course through the Lords. What’s left of the StopHs2 campaign has no serious political influence and Johnson has a lot on his plate. The last thing he needs now is to fight a needless battle with Northern and Midlands leaders by scrapping any of HS2.

Watch this space…

Went the day well? Election thoughts…

13 Friday Dec 2019

Posted by in General election 2019, Musings, Politics

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Well that’s settled then. Presented with a choice between a slow, lingering death and a lingering, slow death, the country chose. Instead of ‘Magic Grandad’ Jeremy Corbyn the country opted for the blond buffoon and serial liar Boris Johnson – and gave him a working majority. The tactical voting many of us hoped for failed to change anything. The only ‘Portillo moment’ was when Lib-Dem leader Jo Swinson lost her seat in Scotland by 149 votes. The SNP now hold 48 of the 59 Scottish seats.

Now we know where we stand and Johnson is expected to deliver on his promises, which is where where the trouble starts. Get Brexit ‘done’? How? This is going to drag on for years. The only thing that’s getting done is the poor saps who fell for it.

Meanwhile, the hard-left in charge in Labour are already forming their wagons into a circle and defending Corbyn in their usual fashion. It’s everybody’s fault but theirs. They’ve been ‘betrayed’ by the voters – again. Don’t expect any humility or introspection here, it’s not what they do. Labour are looking increasingly irrelevent in a post-industrial UK. Like the Tories, they hark back to the past rather than have an eye on the future. Can they change with the hard-left in control, or will they wither on the vine?

What now for the Lib-Dems and the centerist voters made homeless by the Tories and Labour moving to the political extremes?

At least the stock markets have bounced back (the FTSE is currently up 1.84%) and sterling has strengthened, it’s up 1.9% against the US Dollar, so some of us have made some money for now. The poor? You’re on your own now. Many of you fell for the idea that a bunch of entitled old Etonians, ‘Spivs’ with Belizean Diplomatic passports and multi-billionaire media moguls had your best interests at heart, Good luck with that…

As we now know where we stand for the next few years, many people will be making plans, including international companies with operations in the UK but markets abroad. EU citizens will be too.

I wonder how long the euphoria in Tory ranks will last before the magnitude of the situation begins to sink in? Will Johnson dial down the rhetoric now he’s not held hostage by the likes of the ERG, or will he hold fast to the anti EU sentiments and keep up the lies and claims he can do the impossible and get Brexit ‘done’? We’re about to find out. He has a lie to make reality and it’s only going to end one way.

One other observation. Our electoral system is broken. First Past The Post has led us to this. Look at the numbers of people voting for particular parties, then look at the number of MPs they have. Until that changes democracy in the UK’s a joke.

This election has settled everything, and nothing. But it has got rid of a lot of uncertainty and set parameters for the next few years, and many people will be planning accordingly. Expect the United Kingdom to look a very different country (or countries) in a few years time…

Rolling blog: the election unfolds…

12 Thursday Dec 2019

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22:50.

I’ll keep this up for a while but hardly all the way through the night. An exit poll, carried out by Ipsos MORI for the BBC, ITV News and Sky News, suggests the Tories may win 368 seats and Labour 191. If this translates into reality, it will be a disaster for Labour and allow the Tories free reign, which means we’re stuffed.

Will this prediction come true? Right now there’s no way to know, but exit polls have proved to be accurate in the past. If they are, it’s a disaster for the Labour party and those of us who want to see the UK stay in the EU. Typically, the hard left in charge of the Labour party are already crawling all over social media, blaming everyone else and accepting no responsibility whatsoever. It’s others fault for not being as ideologically pure as them.

Let’s see how things pan out as the first results start coming in, which won’t be for a few hours yet, but here’s a good example of how Twitter (and many of us) feel.

23:20.

The first result has come in and it’s from Newcastle (central). Labour have held it with a reduced majority. Sunderland South declared a few minutes later. It’s also a Labour hold. Here’s the change in votes.

It gets worse. Labour have lost Blyth Valley with a 10% swing. It’s the first time a Tory has ever won there.

00:01

It’s looking pretty crap for Labour. But none of them are taking responsibility. It’s the voters fault, not theirs.

We now move to Newcastle East, where Labour hold the seat with a reduced majority.

00:05.

Sunderland Central. Labour Hold, but the Brexit party and Lib-Dem votes are interesting.

00:20.

Despite the exit poll, it’s far too early to tell what’s going on as the only results we have are from the North-East.

00:29.

The first result from the South. Swindon North:

Conservatives hold it, and add to their majority.

00:42.

Hmm, I’m watching the Channel 4 news election news and it’s fascinating to see who’s part of this. Former Speaker of the House John Bercow’s really good. He has the insight you really need as he understands the political tribes and I love his precision in the English language.

01:06.

Nuneaton; Conservative hold with a much bigger majority.

01:24.

The Tories take Workington from Labour with a swing of 10%…

01:48.

The Tories again Peterborough from Labour (again). Things are not looking good and the exit poll is looking pretty accurate.

02:00

I can’t watch and blog at the same time. Plus, I’m now reaching for the wine- so goodnight!

Election day.

12 Thursday Dec 2019

Posted by in General election 2019, Musings, Politics

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It’s finally here. The general election that few people, other than the zealots on either side, are enthused about. One where many people see the choice being that between two lacklustre candidates, neither of whom are Prime Ministerial material, a choice between ‘Magic Grandad’ Jeremy Corbyn and the blond buffoon and serial liar Boris Johnson. It’s like being offered the ‘choice’ of a slow, lingering death, or a lingering, slow death in an awful campaign that’s been dominated by lies, deceit and efforts to mislead. The truth is out there, but it’s hidden by a fog of misinformation and hidden manipulation on social media.

Who’s going to win? I’ll be honest – I haven’t got a clue.

What I do know, though talking to friends and colleagues over the past year is that this election is different. The old tribal loyalties have been split asunder. This applies to both parties. I’ve talked to life-long Tory voters who won’t touch the present party as well as Labour voters who’re in exactly the same position. These people feel that both parties have been taken over by the dogmatists and fundamentalists who’ve dragged them both ends of the political extremes. Which was these politically homeless people will vote could have a huge impact.

So could tactical voting.

Whilst the pollsters are predicting a small Tory majority, I do wonder if their models can cope with the present uncertainties as some people are so torn they still don’t know which way they’re going to vote, even though the polls have already opened. Another factor is loyalty to individual MPs, which I’ve also heard people talk of.

Others have certainly made their mind up and decided to vote not for – but against a party and anyone who has the best chance of keeping them out, thus voting tactically as a damage-limitation exercise, because if one thing is dominating this election it’s Brexit, with the NHS close behind.

This swirl of uncertainties means we going to be in for a very interesting election night. One thing I will predict is that there will be at least one ‘Portillo moment’ – when the then Tory Minister unexpectedly lost his seat in the 1997, leading to enormous bouts of schadenfreude from his opponents.

If you’re still undecided and are reading this, the only thing I would urge you to do is vote for the good of the country, not for the good of any political party. There’s far too much at stake for that. Johnson isn’t going to ‘get Brexit done’. It’s a lie. He’s just going to drag us into another cycle of uncertainty that will drag on for years, because we never ‘took back control’, we gave it away. Now we do have a chance to take back control – from the charlatans and liars who got us into this mess in the first place.

Go. Vote…

13:25.

The day’s turned in to a wet and miserable one here in the Calder and Colne valleys. I wonder what effect that might have on turning out the vote, and which party may benefit from it?

Whoever wins on Friday, the losers are StopHs2.

11 Wednesday Dec 2019

Posted by in Hs2, Politics, Railways, StopHs2

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Despite all their bluster it’s clear that one group are having a lousy election and that’s what’s left of the StopHs2 ‘campaign’. For years they’ve tried to pretend they have the support of the majority of the public and that HS2 is an election issue. Their problem is that every election since 2010 has proved that’s nothing but hot air. This election’s no different.

There’s been no daft #NoVotesForYouWithHS2 hashtag on Twitter this year, nor any StopHs2 adverts in newspapers or magazines as the ‘campaign’ is skint. What there has been has been reduced to some ludicrous bluster on Twitter. Here’s a couple of examples.

“Hundreds of thousands” eh? Well that should give the Greens and Brexit party a bounce in the polls, eh?

Meanwhile, there’s this rubbish from one Stephen Leary who lives in Measham, NW Leics and fancies himself as a political pundit!

Leary’s bored Twitter to death by telling people in constituencies miles away from the Hs2 route who they can vote for to oppose HS2 – as if they haven’t got more important things on their minds this election! I’m sure they’ve been talking about nothing else in Worcester, Woolwich or Wood Green! I mean, forget Brexit, or the NHS. Well, in Leary’s febrile imagination that’s what they’re doing anyway! Meanwhile, in the real world, the ‘Britain Elects’ website has been monitoring the standing of the parties in the many polls. Here’s their summary from yesterday.

So much for Deeley’s “hundreds of thousands” of HS2 antis and Leary’s desperate digging up of political no-hopers like the SDP (who? Ed). The two national parties who oppose HS2, the Greens and Brexit party are languishing at the bottom of the chart. How many seats are they projected to win? None at all. The Greens will hang on to their one existing South Coast seat whilst the Brexit party won’t win anything anywhere.

So much for all the bluster! Hs2 antis have supplied all the bounce of a dead cat to the parties that oppose HS2! Whichever party or parties form the next Government support building the new railway.

Something else HS2 anti have been reticent to mention is this interview Boris Johnson gave to the Metro newspaper. It says.

“BORIS JOHNSON has said he will back HS2 — as long as the Oakervee Review does so too.“

As the leaked draft of the Oakervee report does exactly that, I think we can see which way the wind’s blowing – the direction that’s going to take the wind out of Stophs2’s sails completely…