Category Archives: Local elections

A post-election political blog

04 Friday May 2018

Posted by in Brexit, Jeremy Corbyn, Local elections, Local elections 2018, Politics

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I woke up this morning to find that nothing I hadn’t expected had occurred in the local elections. To the surprise of no-one (except perhaps, party die-hards), UKIP voters had drifted back to where most of them came from in the first place – the Tory party. meanwhile Labour, the worst opposition in living memory facing the worst Government in living memory, had managed to gain 50 seats. As I type this, the Tories have actually managed to GAIN 11! In fact, all parties bar UKIP (who’ve lost 110) have gained seats! The Lib-Dems have managed to win 33 so far and the Greens just 4. The final numbers will make interesting reading, but not, I think for Labour.

That said, Corbyn supporters are busy on social media, trying to claim this is (somehow) a ‘victory’. Quite how they work that one out is a mystery. It’s like kicking at an open goal, missing, then saying “Yeah, but the ball only missed by a bit”.

Contrast these results with the final ones of the 2014 local elections (before Corbyn became Labour leader), when the Tories lost 236 and Labour gained 324.

2014 election

This was the last year that Labour gained seats. In 2015 they lost 203, a further 18 in 2016 and another 382 in 2017. A grand total of 603 seats.

Here’s another result Corbynistas won’t want to hear. In May 1995, under Tony Blair, Labour won 1,802 seats whilst John Major’s Tories lost 2,018. Paddy Ashdown’s Lib-Dems picked up 487. Yes, it was all downhill from there until 2010 when Gordon Brown picked up 417 seats, but even Ed Miliband  as Labour Leader managed to pick up 857 seats in 2011 and a further 823 in 2012. He then added another 291 in 2013 and 324 in 2014 before losing 203 in 2015, a fact overshadowed by his General election loss.

Here’s all the Labour’s local election results since 2010, showing the percentage of the vote and any swing.

results since 2010

This puts Corbyn’s results into perspective. I, like many others have no enthusiasm for him or his party now. He’s betrayed Labour supporters over Brexit and there’s no sign of that changing. The hard left seem to be in full denial of reality mode, so the charade will continue.

God help us…

UPDATE.

The final results are in and they make interesting reading.

final election results

Despite former UKIP voters heading back to the Tories they still lost 33 seats, but that’s hardly a disaster. In the light of political events that’s not a bad result. Labour are crowing about having won 77 seats, but when you consider they’re up against such a disastrous and shambolic Government, this is underachieving on a grand scale, especially when you consider that the Lib-Dems are only behind them by 2 seats. The Greens will probably be happy gaining 8 as their recent showing in the polls and performance at local elections has been poor.

From these results I’d suggest it’s pretty clear Brexit has played an important part in who people chose to vote for. The Lib-Dems did very well in some places that were heavy Leave areas, again, I’d suggest that this is an obvious sign of ‘Bregret’. Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB on Twitter) has compiled this rather useful chart which demonstrates how opinion has changed recently. Does anyone seriously think this isn’t feeding into who people choose to vote for?

bregret

No bregrets?

02 Friday Feb 2018

Posted by in Brexit, Local elections, Politics, UKIP

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As the shambles that is Brexit stumbles on from one train crash to another, more and more evidence is emerging that the British people are starting to wake up to the fact that the promised Brexit unicorns don’t actually exist – and never will.

The latest evidence may come from the result of a local council election in Sunderland’s Pallion ward yesterday, where the Liberal Democrats took the seat from Labour with a very sizeable swing.

bregret

Pallion is on the South bank of the River Wear and used to be known for its shipbuilding but the last yard closed in 1988. There’s still one yard which carries out ship repairs, but that’s all. Nowadays the Pallion’s a mixture of industrial estates and residential, bounded by a road ironically named European Way. It’s known as a very deprived ward with high unemployment. You can learn more about the ward from the ‘Britain Elects’ website.

Of course nowaday’s Sunderland’s known for its Nissan car plant rather than shipbuilding.

In the Brexit referendum Sunderland voted to leave the EU by 61% to 39% remain. UKIP had a strong presence in the area, even if they had no Councillors. In the 2014 local elections UKIP made their first appearance, putting up candidates in almost every ward. The election results left them in 2nd place in the vote after the Labour party  – including in Pallion. UKIP played on Sunderland’s shipbuilding past, pretending that they could somehow recreate those days.

pallion

UKIP also came second in 2015 and 2016. But that was then. This is now…

The fact that the ‘will of the people’ was swinging against Brexit was picked up by the local paper as long ago as December 2016 when they ran a poll that demonstrated people had changed their minds (link). Of course, newspaper polls are notorious for their inaccuracy, most are little better than clickbait. But that’s what makes the Pallion ward vote so interesting as it’s a genuine expression of the democratic vote.  Pallion had the same Labour member since 1997, so for the Lib-Dems to go from last in 2014 , leapfrogging UKIP to snatch the seat is amazing. That UKIP are a car-crash nowadays doesn’t account for the massive swing to the Lib-Dems, as Labour and the Tories have lost vote share too. Could a factor be Brexit? Why did both former UKIP and Tory voters switch to the Lib-Dems?

Is anyone in Conservative Central Office or Labour headquarters listening? Both parties are seemingly hell-bent on pursuing Brexit, whatever the cost, but they would be foolish in the extreme to ignore results like this. This is the Brexit heartlands remember, so where’s their support gone? To the one party that’s made it absolutely clear it opposes Brexit!

I wonder how many more results like this we’ll be seeing as the Brexit shambles continues and the consequences can no longer be ignored or denied?