Monthly Archives: January 2020

Rolling blog: The Railway Children charity sleep-outs tonight.

30 Thursday Jan 2020

Posted by in Railways, Rolling blogs, The Railway Children

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I’m helping the Railway Children charity this evening by volunteering to with their sleep-out at Leeds station tonight. 30 people are dossing down on the station from 21:30 until 07:00 tomorrow to draw attention to the work the charity does, and also help raise much needed funds. You can find the details here. Tonight, teams will also be sleeping out at London Bridge Station, London Waterloo, Liverpool Lime Street, Manchester Piccadilly, Milton Keynes Central, Birmingham New Street, Glasgow Central and Derby Railway Station.

I’ll be making my way over to Leeds later, so stay with me to see how the day/night unfolds as I’ll be updating the blog on a regular basis…

16:52.

I’m on my way, complete with camera bag, mat and sleeping bag. Even though we’ll be bedded down inside the station I’m glad the weather’s mild tonight. The walk to the station was actually quite pleasant! I’m now on a Northern (but not for much longer) service to Leeds via Bradford which is worked by a CAF class 195 running its traditonal few minutes late. I’m not going to get into the ins and outs of the Northern franchise, I’ll save that for anither blog. But passengers won’t be seeing any changes for a while…

After a swift reversal at Bradford we’re already on our way ul the bank en-route to New Pudsey. It’s early enough for the train to be busy but not packed. I’ll bet the return working will be tho!

18:10.

I’m waiting for the others to arrive as I got here early to have chance to get a few photos beforehand, but I hadn’t expected to find this!

A former LNER power car being moved from storage at Ely to Leeds Neville Hill depot where it’ll find a new life with East Midlands Railway. 57301 is on the front.

21:50.

I’ve been so busy I’ve not had time to blog until now. 30 of us are bedding down on the North concourse at Leeds, opposite the Wetherspoons. Network Rail have sent a huge group of people that includes their Route Director, Rob Mackintosh and several other senior staff. Although most of us are railway, there is one young lady from ‘First Direct’ who’s turned up. There’s several people I know, like former Angel Trains Director Malcolm Brown, plus folk who’ve taken part in previous fundraising events like the 3 Peaks. The atmosphere’s excellent as everyone knows they’re doing something worthwhile.

The sleepers hearing from one of the Railway Children staff about the valuable work they’re doing.

22:34.

The station’s quietened down over the past hour but now numbers are ramping up again as folks arrive to catch their last trains. There’s a few racous souls but most are good natured. We had our own bit of theatre earlier when a well dressed chap wobbled out of the Wetherspoons to sit on the plastic seats nearby and take a phone call. Gravity abd drink were too much for him and he slid off the seat and wbded up supine on the floor whilst he remained on his phone. A couple of our kind souls went to his assistance!

Folks have found a variety of ways to pass the time. Some have already bedded down with a book or phone, whilst half a dozen people are passing the time playing cards invthe centre of the concourse where there’s a collection of plastic seats. The only thing that’s making life uncomfortable is the gale blowing in through the open doors to the car park opposite where we’re bedded down.

00:26.

The station’s winding down and so are we. Most of our group are curled up in their sleeping bags now although not all are sleeping. Some will stay awake most of the night as this is too alien an environment to feel relaxed in. There’s too much noise and too many lights as far as they’re concerned. But they’re still doing it – because they care about the work the Railway Children does, and I really admire them for that.

This isn’t the first time I’ve slept on a railway station. Or slept rough. There’s far too many stories for me to tell in this blog. But I will tell one.

Back in 1986 I remember bedding down on a railway station in Tamil Nadu in India. The train I was catching was at 3am. I was travelling on a very tight budget, so what was the point of paying for a hotel room? Instead, I joined the throng of people you always find sleeping on stations as Indian railways run all hours of the day and night due to the vastness of the country. We had our heads against the building so that if anyone walked past it was only your feet they’d stand on. The mats we were sleeping on we laid down over the metal grilles that covered the rainwater drain next to the building, then we fell asleep. After a while I was woken by this odd skittering noise I didn’t recognise. It took a couple of minutes before I realised it was made by rats running up and down the drain just inches beneath my head.

In comparison, tonight is luxury…

00:56.

I’m amazed none of our group have yet tried to kill the bloke going up and down the concourse with the tile cleaning machine. It’s not him, or the machine – it’s the bloody siren attached to it…

00:59.

I take back everything I said about the tile cleaner. A MEWP’s just been driven into the concourse so guys can attend to some elevated work. The sounds of its poorly silenced diesel engine are so bad it’s almost drowned out the sounds of snoring from an adjacent sleeper! This is the sort of thing rough sleepers out up with day after day…

Oblivious to (or because of) us the bloke in the basket relates every minor detail of what he’s doing to his oppo on the ground. I now now more than I ever wanted to about worm drives on adverts.

04:00.

The MEWP and men have changed their advert and disappered, leaving us a few hours peace to get fitful sleep, thanking our lucky stars that this is a one off, not our everyday exustence.

05:00.

I’m awake and decided to explore the station, which is still a ghost town apart from a few passengers who’re on their way home from clubs and earky shift rail staff booking on or who’re already at work. Northern have started the day badly with the first train to Manchester cancelled and others delayed.

05:50.

Most of our sleepers are awake and packing their bags ready to face the day, off to hunt for coffee and warm food.

It’s been an experience I’ve not had for years and it’s an event I’m really happy I could help the Railway Children with. I’ll upload some pictures later today once I’ve got home and edited them. I’ll also let you know how much the event has raised.

In the meantime, thanks for following the adventure. Now it’s my turn to head iff in search of coffee!

The MEWP

StopHs2. The fat lady’s about to sing…

30 Thursday Jan 2020

Posted by in Hs2, Politics, Railways, StopHs2

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– but not today, despite the earlier claims of the BBC. Right now, she’s sucking throat lozenges, preparing for the final act which (if I’m right) will be next week.

The stage has been set by leaks to the media that the Chancellor and Midlands MP, Sajid Javid has thrown his weight behind building HS2 as the economics stack up for, not against the project. As Javid is a very Senior member of the Government and the man in charge of the money, this is hugely important. We’ve also seen a chorus of ‘get on with it’ from many of the new intake of Tory MPs in the North, much to the chagrin of Northern antis, who tried to pretend the ‘newbies’ were all against the project.

Whilst the announcement may not dot every ‘i’ and cross every ‘t’ in relation to Phase 2b of HS2, it will certainly mean there are no more questions over phase 1. Not only that, but from what I’ve been hearing, the phase 1 contractors are expected to hit the ground running. Whilst the project’s been delayed awaiting the political go-ahead, they’ve not been kicking their heels. They’ve refined their work plans and are keen to crack-on with them.

This will be the death knell of StopHs2 which has always been a phase 1 based campaign. It renders them completely irrelevant. Oh, there might be a few isolated protests due to local Nimbys and ‘Extinction Rebellion’ but they’ve already shown they’ve neither the numbers or the muscle to actually stop the work continuing. The idea they’re puffing that ‘Middle England’ will turn out to ‘protect’ the countryside and stop HS2 is pure bluster. They’ve fallen for their own social media spin and the numbers of voyeurs who watch their futile antics via Facebook – but who’ll never do anthing more than send ‘thoughts and prayers’.

Also, the law on these protests has tightened up since the heady days of “Swampy” and the road protests of the 1980s-90s. How many of these middle-class, middle-aged (and over) protesters are prepared to collect a criminal record other than ones by Max Bygraves or Des O’ Connor? They may protest while it’s felt the project hasn’t got a formal ‘green light’, but how many will still bother when it has and the full weight of the construction companies with thousands of men and hundreds of machines move in?

In the meantime, the froth will continue for a few more days, but I think even most antis have worked out how this is going to end. A few die-hards are still blustering on Twitter and Facebook from their armchairs, whilst the reprogrammed pro-brexit trolls spout absolute garbage, sometimes in incomprehensible ways like this.

“Beachams”? I think it was trying to refer to Beeching, but it got lost in translation!

I wonder how Joe Rukin’s job hunt is going? Not very well by the look of it. he’s reduced to recording this incoherent and rambling video from his bunker! The hilarious part is he’s asked his supporters to forward this car-crash to the PM! Bless…

A guest blog on the Berkeley evidence to the Lords EAC from William Barter.

29 Wednesday Jan 2020

Posted by in House of Lords, Hs2, Railways

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Here’s the first of what may well become a new feature. Guest writing from friends and readers of this blog. The expression “rail expert” is terribly overused. Most of the time it’s used to refer to journalists like myself who may know about the railways. We wouldn’t dream of using it of ourselves, because the more we know, the more we realise how little we know. However, I think that if anyone can be classed as an expert in his subject it’s William, so I commend this blog to the house! William sent this to the Lords Economic Committee in response to Lord Tony Berkeley’s recent evidence to said committee.

Yesterday, you took evidence from Lord Berkeley to the effect that the business case for HS2 should be based only on 14 trains per hour (tph), as the nominal capacity of 18 tph on the HS2 trunk route is impracticable. He is wrong.

First, consider the theory, because if the theory doesn’t work there is no further argument. Taking into account realistic braking rates, the minimum time separation of trains at 360 kph can be calculated to be less than 120 seconds. For this calculation, please refer to my article in the Institution of Railway Signal Engineers journal ‘IRSE News’ for May 2019. More detailed modelling reflecting local features and constraints shows that this can increase to around 130 seconds. But it is clear that a flow of well above 18 trains per hour is possible on this basis.

Counter intuitively, though, the plain line headway at full speed in open air is not the binding constraint on capacity of the route. The highest headways arise in slow speed areas around stations particularly where approached through tunnels. The first implication of this is that the top speed of trains is irrelevant to capacity in practice, as raising it further would not create a new binding constraint, nor would reducing it ease a binding constraint.

The second implication is that it is these slow speed areas that need to be considered when assessing feasibility of the proposed capacity. HS2 has a technical standard that headways should be generally 120 seconds but not above 150 seconds. Modelling shows that even in the slow speed areas, 150 seconds technical headway is achievable. This is significant, as the International Union of Railways (UIC) guideline on practical exploitation of theoretical capacity is 75% for a dedicated high speed railway at peak periods. 150 seconds multiplied by 18 trains per hour gives precisely that figure. So using real data for the worst headways and the guidance of an international body, 18 trains per hour is feasible.

At this point, please note that, contrary to the evidence of Lord Berkeley, the HS2 business case is based on only 17 tph, with one further path pencilled in for possible future use. So the business case is even more robust in this respect.

That’s the theory. The issue then becomes whether the planned HS2 service can be operated reliably in practice, particularly in view of the risk of late handovers from the conventional railway. Frankly we can’t know until we try it, and that is no more or less the case for HS2 than for any other railway, but in accepting that one must also recognise that there is always management action possible to influence reliability, and that identifying a risk effectively means identifying where management action needs to be focused. One must also consider how robust HS2 can be expected to be in the face of such imposed delays, and the answer is – more robust than a classic railway.

The two big risks to service performance in the face of imposed delays are a) fast trains ending up following stopping trains once trains are running out of order, and b) conflicting moves at termini as the planned pattern of arriving and departing trains degrades. In the case of HS2, a) can be dismissed instantly, as there are no fast and stopping trains on the trunk route – all trains are running at the same speed, and all stopping only at the one station at Old Oak Common. If a later running train has to squeeze in to the flow, the consequent delay will decay over the next few trains. Moreover, the train that finds itself following a gap left by a late train can speed up in open air into that gap, thus allowing the delay to be eroded both before and after the late train. Then, b) is mitigated by the Euston track layout, which incorporates features that preserve robustness. Prime amongst these is a grade-separation in the station throat that makes the layout effectively two half stations handling half the service each, and so removes most of the scope for conflicts between out of course trains. Moreover, within each half-station, a platforming pattern that steps across from arrival side to departure side means that a later-running arrival will not normally create a conflict, as it will be in parallel with any later departure. For trains presenting seriously late, the option of turning back from Old Oak Common exists and has no parallel on the existing railway.

Lord Berkeley’s suggestion that 14 tph should be the maximum is based on two things:

  1. The UIC calculation outlined above, except that he has wrongly and inexplicably applied the 75% factor twice, first to reduce the theoretical 24 tph at 150 seconds separation to 18 tph, then again to reduce that 18 tph to 13.5 which he approximates to 14 tph;
  2. Evidence given many years ago, primarily to the Commons Transport Select Committee, by representatives of the French railways that they consider 14 tph or thereabouts to be their practicable maximum. Astonishingly, no-one ever asked them why! What feature of their railway sets this limit? From my argument above, I think it is unlikely to be the technical headway at full speed, unless a considerably less-than-state-of-the-current-art signalling system was in question. Where HS2 is constrained to 18 tph, as above in the slow speed areas, it is in effect like any other railway, many of which operate 18 tph now

I contend that the view expressed to you by Lord Berkeley yesterday is unfounded both theoretically and in practice. Please do not hesitate to contact me to discuss these issues further if this is helpful to you in reaching valid conclusions.

Regards,

William

Confusion continues over the HS2 go-ahead announcement.

29 Wednesday Jan 2020

Posted by in Hs2, Politics, Railways, StopHs2

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The sorry saga around the HS2 go-ahead announcement continues, with the BBC now claiming the Government will make the call tomorrow (Thursday). This rather contradicts the majority view from various informed sources that the announcement won’t be made until AFTER the UK formally leaves the EU, which is 11pm this Friday. The latest informed source I’ve spoken to reckons that the announcement will either be made Tuesday or Thursday next week, or at the end of February, due to the Parliamentary timetable. Personally, I suspect the latter date will be sailing close to the wind as March is the month construction needs to start without penalty payments bumping up the construction price – as confirmed in the latest NAO report into HS2.

Whatever the truth of the matter it’s clear that the announcement is imminent. Not a single source I’ve talked to considers there’s any real chance the project will be cancelled. Politically and economically, cancellation is a non-starter. The sooner this decision is taken the better.

Meanwhile, the froth around HS2 continues in the media, with column inch after column inch of speculation, spin and outright fiction. It’s certainly keeping the pundits busy anyway!

But what of the StopHs2 campaign? It goes from farce to worse. Poor Joe Rukin has made a fool of himself yet again in this overwrought post on the Stop Hs2 Facebook page. A wildlife expert he clearly isn’t. Look at the reply to his Badger sett claim!

Meanwhile, the Harvil Rd protest appears to have collapsed. In contrast to the previous barrage of tedious Facebook posts and self-indulgent videos on the Colne Valley Facebook page there’s been nothing for days. No-one seems to be doing anything that even merits a boring video, much less actually stopping any work on the ground – and this is their oldest and biggest protest camp! Instead, we’ve been treated to more over-long and tedious ‘livestream’ videos from the latest ‘camp’ which is on Welsh Road just outside Offchurch, Warwickshire. Here’s a link.

What it shows is a handful of mostly middle-class protesters completely failing to stop the cutting down of trees and hedgerows alongside a road. It’s all a bit of an expensive pantomime as contractors erect Heras fencing to protect protesters from themselves as they stupidly (and pointlessly) try and place themselves in harms way and then film it – as if it’s HS2’s fault they’re daft enough to get where they are! The contractors and police display the patience of saints as the protesters wind themselves up, spouting more and more nonsense about the project, the law – and the countryside. And what have they stopped? Nothing.

The irony is the guy who’s filming this and who constantly boasts about all the ‘hearts’ being posted on his feed are worse than useless. It’s nothing more than voyeurism. Those armchair warriors won’t do anything other than massage a few protesters egos by telling them how they’re ‘with them in spirit’ and other suchlike tosh. It’s about as useful as sending “thoughts and prayers” but this is the nature of protest in the smartphone age it seems! The protesters video drags on interminably, with the same ridiculous statements including all the old favourites about “HS2 only saves 20 mins”, “no-one will use it”, “it’ll be obsolete in 10yrs” – wibble, froth wibble. After a while, the police beef up their presence at the site (adding yet more expense) whilst the protesters try to argue everything that’s being done is ‘illegal’. It’s like arguing about angels on heads of pins. Opinions don’t trump legality so the protesters are on to a loser from the very start. What’s actually depressing is just how ignorant and misinformed they are, but then the likes of StopHs2’s Joe Rukin has been filling people’s heads with nonsense for years…

Eventually, after 2 hours filming, the video ends and we’re saved from more middle-class angst, pointless arguments and misinformation.

Did it stop the tree felling and hedgerow clearance? Did it heck as like! The protesters own video admits they’ve failed to stop 3/4 mile of tree felling and hedgerow clearance! A tiny delay is not stopping anything. The irony, this pointless exercise will have cost a pretty penny in security and (probably) police overtime. Yet one of the things the protesters are complaining about is the cost of building HS2. The very costs they’re adding to with their futile protests. Here’s the later video which shows how the protesters wasted their time.

Away from pointless protests there’s been action on the political front which has ramifications for HS2. Today Transport Minister Grant Shapps announced that the Northern rail franchise is going to be taken back of Arriva and run by the DfT’s operator of last resort (OLR). Well, I say ‘action’ but this move had been widely trailed and has hardly come as a surprise. You can find a copy of Shapps Statement here.

The implications for HS2 comes in this, the admission that the issue is as much about infrastructure as anything else.

“The vast majority of Northern’s trains pass though Leeds or Manchester”? The two Northern cities that HS2 does so much to relieve rail capacity in! I’ve no doubt Northern leaders will be pointing this out to Shapps. With such an admission, does anyone seriously think the Minister is about to announce the cancellation of HS2 when doing so will just add to the problems?

We’ll soon find out…

Rolling blog: doing the TALGO tango once more…

28 Tuesday Jan 2020

Posted by in Railways, Rolling blogs, Talgo, Travel

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06:15.

I’m preparing to head off to Halifax station for a journey to Barrow Hill for today’s TALGO press event. Let’s see how the day progresses…

07:05.

I timed my walk to the station impeccably. As I crested the top of the hill above our house I arrived at the same time as a snowstorm! The weather often changes here as Spring Edge is the high point of the valley summit. After here it’s a long, gradual descent sll the way to Halifax town centre and the railway station. The snow was whipped by the wind and lasted for several minutes, leaving me (in my long black coat) looking like a Dalmation!

I arrived at the station with a few minutes to soare before the 07:07 to York arrived. This is being worked by a 3-car Class 195, so there’s been no struggle to get a seat. I’m now defrosting slowly in the warmth of the front coach.

Whilst I was waiting one of the new Hull – Halifax services arrived. In a sign of the times this was worked hy a 3-car Class 158, the type of units that were the backbone of Northern’s ‘express’ services before the CAF units arrived. The fact they can be spared and cascaded to secondary duties says a lot about the way the Northern fleet’s expanded. The train was almost empty when it terminated at Halifax, although I’ve no doubt its return trip will be profitable…

Journeys end for one of the new Hull to Halifax services

07:45.

I’ve arrived at Leeds via the usual game of sitting outside waiting for a platform to become free…

08:30.

I’m now rammed into the luggage area (formerly the shop) on a 4-car Voyager that’s running 9 mins late due to congestion between York-Leeds. The train’s packed with a mixture of long and short distance passengers. Folk heading down South of Birmingham as far as Plymouth whilst others are taking the short hop from Leeds to Wakefield. It’s one of my dislikes about the Cross-Country network. It’s neither fish nor fowl.

Having left Wakefield 10 mins late I’ve 25 mins to enjoy staring at this bulkhead..

At least my time in Leeds was profitable. The station was awash with new trains operated by Northern, LNER and TPE and passengers scurrying through the place, heads down or buried in scarves as they head to work on this cold winter’s day.

11:51.

Phew! A busy few hours af Barrow Hill where Talgo handed over one of their former sleeper cars which were used on Madrid/Barcelona- Paris services. Fitted with the company’s unique Rodal independent wheel system they’ve never been seen in the UK before. I’ll blog about this event separately as it justifies it.

20:10.

Well, that was an interesting day! Not only was it a chance to catch up with a lot of old friends, it was also a great opportunity to learn more about the exciting plans Talgo have for the UK as they’ve developed.

After the event a few of us congregated to talk about the world before heading off in different directions. I’d plans to make the most of the sunny weather. Sadly neither lasted. Snow flurries followed me South and by the time the last two of us started the trek Northwards the weather was positively Arctic! I left Jon at Sheffield to leg it from an EMR 158 tl one of its Northern cousins. By the time I transferred to yet another of the Class at Leeds to get to Halifax I felt I should’ve been wearing thermals!

Another day of anti HS2 social media froth can’t hide the reality…

27 Monday Jan 2020

Posted by in Harvil Rd Hs2 protest, Hs2, Politics, Railways, StopHs2

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I’ve had another busy day at home scanning yet more old slides, whilst also preparing to move on to other activities this week. Tomorrow will see me back on the rails as I head to a press event at Barrow Hill near Chesterfield. All will be revealed in tomorrow’s rolling blog. In the meantime, if you want to have a look at the latest batch of Brazilian travel pictures, visit this gallery. If you want to see more of the vintage railway pictures from 1990, click on this link.

In between scanning pictures I’ve been keeping abreast of the world news and antics of social media. The health scare in China’s certainly having an impact on the world’s financial markets. The UK FTSE Index lost 2.29% of its value today, which is wiping out most of January’s gains. Not much fun if you’re an investor…

Still, social media provided some unintentional light hearted moments thanks to the latest shenanigan’s by the tiny bunch of StopHs2 protesters. They’ve been very quiet recently since their main protest camp at Harvil Rd was broken up as most of it’s been evicted, leaving them with nothing to film to bore social media with. But today they staged a comeback – of sorts, only not at Harvil Rd. A new camp has been started to ‘protect’ some trees and hedgerows that are being removed from along a road on the route at Offchurch, Warwickshire, but it’s all been a bit of a farce. Their ‘camp’ is a handful of tents but most of the land is already occupied and fenced off by contractors, so the work is continuing unhindered. StopHs2 have tried to make a meal of it on their website as their grandly titled ‘campaign manager’ Joe Rukin turned up to film earlier today. You can find the videos here on the StopHs2 website, but I can assure you you’re not missing much if you don’t bother!

As you can see from this screengrab, the handful of protestors are kept away by fencing which is looked after by security and police officers. Try and get in and you’re nicked – which three protesters were! The worksite continues for quite some way, which means the protesters are totally overstretched as there’s so few of them. Quite how any of this is meant to stop Hs2 is a mystery. If they can’t even stop minor work like hedgerows being removed they’re really going to struggle when the heavy equipment arrives!

No doubt farces like this will continue for a while yet, but they’ll achieve nothing. The protesters problem is that they’ve relied on social media for so long they’ve forgotten one simple thing. Twitter trolls and their fake accounts don’t exist in real life. They won’t turn up to protests, and neither will the ‘keyboard warriors’ on Facebook! The hastily reprogrammed pro Brexit bots that are keeping the #hs2 hashtag busy on Twitter are worse then useless when it comes to the real world…

Right, it’s time to say goodnight. I’ve got to be on a train at 07:20 in the morning, so watch out for tomorrow’s rolling blog, which will feature a rail vehicle of a type never seen in the UK before…

Sunday’s mishmash of thoughts…

26 Sunday Jan 2020

Posted by in Musings, Photography, Railways, Travel

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Considering that January is the month I’m normally trotting the globe I seem to have spent an awful lot of this year’s opening month sat at home staring at computer screens. I shouldn’t complain. The British weather has been pretty typical. It’s reminded me why I normally flee the UK now. It’s been predictably dull, but it has allowed me to make big inroads into scanning my old rail and travel pictures as I’ve scanned over 600 so for this month, which has freed up a not inconsiderable amount of space in my office! I’ll add a few samples later In this blog.

Whilst the weekend’s seen me busy at home I have been keeping an eye on the media and the continuing saga of HS2 as it’s played out in the press. The Fourth Estate have done themselves no favours in the way they’ve reported events. What’s sad (but predictable nowadays) is the way most of them (print or TV) can’t be arsed to do the slightest bit of independent research, so we’re into “send three and fourpence” territory (aka ‘Chinese whispers’) where the message gets distorted down the line. The FT originally reported an anonymous Government briefer who claimed the cost of HS2 was now £106bn. This was picked up and amplified by a cohort of lazy journalists who turned it into an official figure in a ‘secret’ report, when in fact it was total bollocks. The fact the National Audit Office then published an official report into HS2 and £106bn was never even mentioned (as it’s bollocks) matters not. Joe Public’s seen the figure mentioned and swallowed it, hook, line and sinker. Are these journalists apologetic? Are they hell as like. This is the ‘post truth’ world after all.

On the bright side, this whole furore does seem to have registered in Downing St where some people do seem to have realised they just might need to do something about this rubbish as it looks bad on them. The logical thing to do would be to release the Oakervee review which would show up that fact £106bn is bollocks, we’ll have to wait and see it that’s not just to sensible. In the meantime, it’s looking increasingly likely that the Government will be announcing HS2 will go ahead within the next couple of weeks – hence a lot of the froth we’re seeing in the general and social media as this really is the last chance saloon for the stophs2 campaign. Once phase 1 is given the go-ahead, they’re toast.

OK, enough of this. This theatre will play out over the next few weeks until the fat lady sings.

In the meantime, next week will be interesting for other reasons. I’ll be out and about at a couple of events next week – including volunteering for the Railway Children charity at this event, their sleepout on the 30th. Whilst this will be a fully supported fundraiser and I’m volunteering to help out, it’s a cause close to my heart. Plus, when I was a lot younger back in the 1970s-80s I’ve known just what it’s like to sleep rough on railway stations when you’ve nowhere else to go.

Now, it’s time for a change of tempo. I mentioned earlier about the pictures I’ve been scanning. I’ve been swapping between two albums. One’s old railway pictures from the 1980s whilst the other is travel shots from Brazil back in 2002. Here’s a couple of examples.

It’s a long time since Manchester Victoria looked like this! This particular picture was taken in May 1990. The area you’re seeing now has all disappeared under the arena. The platform I was stood on to take the picture still exists (it’s now platform 3) but everything else is long gone. The two locomotives were stabled in the roads that were used by engines that would push heavy freight trains up Miles Platting bank.

Now for a travel shot. Here’s the stunning island of Fernando de Noronha and the ‘Bay of Pigs’.

Today’s National Audit Office report on HS2 – let the frothing begin!

24 Friday Jan 2020

Posted by in Economics, Hs2, Railways

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This morning the NAO released their latest report into the HS2 building programme. Like most NAO reports, it’s a solid piece of work that details dispassionately the project successes, failures and the challenges it faces as the UK cracks on with the biggest civil engineering project in Europe that’s going to be under construction for (potentially) the next 20 years. You can find the full report here.

Needlesss to say, the media and social media is already full of froth from people who’ve never even read the report, or at best, have skim-read its conclusions. No doubt some journo’s will trot out their usual trite appelation to claim the it’s a “damning” report (it isn’t. The NAO don’t do ‘damning’, they do sober assessments). You’ll also see ridiculous numbers North of £100bn bandied around, numbers that never appear in the NAO report at all and that have no official recognition. It says a lot about the febrile state of UK journalism that many (including the BBC) will regurgitate this spin. Nowadays it seems even supposedly respected organs like the BBC are merely parasites who lazily feed off other sections of the media to report what they say, rather than do some real research to report the actual facts.

So, what DOES the report say? Nothing that new, or earth-shattering. It’s simply an update on previous NAO reports that have highlighted the complexities and challenges of the HS2 project from its inception.

The report notes that the expected savings HS2 Ltd hoped to make haven’t materialised. Instead, there’s been an increase in costs for almost everything (bar the new trains themselves) – for multiple reasons.

These increases include mundane stuff like greater costs in moving utilities (cables, pipes etc) away from the route – which is hardly surprising as I don’t think any major project hasn’t suffered from this. The report also notes that significant costs have been added in the petitioning process by the Hybrid Bill Committee placating NIMBYs. Here’s what the report says, in their own words.

The irony? The NIMBYS who insisted that HS2 must be buried in tunnels or deep cuttings so they didn’t have to gaze upon it will be the same people who’ll now be screaming about the cost of HS2 rising! The rising costs and the reasons for them are summed up rather neatly in this table.

The report also details that costs have risen because the contractors recruited to deliver the construction of the project were expected to bear more of the financial risks than is usual – but that this is now being addressed.

What does the report say about the actual cost of HS2? Not unreasonably, it reports that this is still a figure liable to change, as is the timescale for opening. Here’s the details.

Note the final costs for the whole of HS2 are in the range of £65-88bn (including contingency). NOT £106bn! Of course you can guarantee much of the media will only use the higher of those two figures, whilst others will still insist on using the fictitious figures of £106-108bn which have no validity whatsoever. They’re certainly aren’t official figures.

What does all this do to the expected benefits of HS2 which are crudely calculated on a Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR). Here’s what the NAO say.

Until the figures are updated in the revised business case, HS2 is now regarded as poor value for money, but not so poor as StopHs2 claim, as they’ve invented a 60p in the pound figure, whilst the NAO say it’s 1:1.4! No surprise there then! Of course, as this is an NAO report, there’s a lot of things it doesn’t cover. What these bare figures don’t do is look at what would happen if we don’t build HS2. What would be the costs of the rail gridlock that would lead to, and how would we meet our targets to cut carbon emissions when we’d no loner have the means to get modal shift from road/air to rail? These are crucial matters, but not within the purview of the report. Neither will it mention that the OECD recommends that baseline infra investment is 5.5% of GDP annually for an economy with aspirations to growth. We have only spent this amount twice since WW2 leaving us woefully behind other developed (and developing) countries when it comes to infrastructure.

It doesn’t talk of the wider political aspects of building HS2 or the merits of doing so, such as the Governments aims of rebalancing the economy. That’s not the NAO’s job either – although that won’t stop some of the more bizarre claims and speculation from the pundits.

What we can see from the report is a sober assessment of where the HS2 project has got to so far and the challenges it faces over the next few years as it goes from design to (finally) construction. A decision to go-ahead will be made next month. The report assumes construction will begin in March 2020.

This won’t be the last report the NAO do on HS2. They’ll be keeping an eye of the project right through to completion when they’ll then look at the question of value for money. Their reports always make interesting reading as they’re authorititive and free of hyperbole or politicking. Now, watch how the media spins it…

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Strange days…

22 Wednesday Jan 2020

Posted by in History, Hs2, Musings, Photography, Politics, Railways, Travel

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Today’s been another one where I’ve been tied to the office as I’ve continued to make inroads into scanning my old slide library in order to get them onto my Zenfolio website. Mind you, it does free up an awful lot of physical space too – and now they can be seen by anyone and I can access them anywhere!

Yesterday I added another batch of old rail pictures from 1990. This morning I was up at Sparrowfart to start scanning more travel pictures from Brazil, this time from the Island of Fernando de Noronha which I was lucky enough to visit in 2002. I have to say it’s been one of my favourite Islands. It’s pretty unique and (at least in those day) unspoilt. It’s now a world Heritage and conservation site and the main reasons to go there are to enjoy the wild coastlines, beautiful beaches and the flora and fauna. I must admit, scanning these pictures is really giving me itchy feet! Anyway, here’s a link to the gallery. I’ve still plenty more pictures to add and I’ll alternate them with the railway shots.

Here’s a selection of both as a sample.

In 1990 this scene was nothing out of the ordinary. Now… On the 12th May 1990 one of the two shunting engines that acted as Euston station pilots trundles around the entrance to platforms 15-18. These were used to shunt mail trains – one of which can be seen through the arch, stabled in the Downside Carriage shed. These engines would also be used to swap coaches in/out of rakes used on the main-line expresses in the days before we had fixed formation trains like the Pendolinos, although most of the day they sat idle. Now, this whole area is being swept aside to build the new HS2 station. The pilots are long-gone as mail trains disappeared from Euston back in the late 1990s. The carriage shed was demolished last year and the site is where the new HS2 lines will emerge from the tunnel from Old Oak Common to enter the new HS2 station which will be built here and to the left of the picture.

This is the stunning island of Fernando de Noronha off the North-East Coast of Brazil. It’s a fascinating plce with a rich history, beautiful beaches and abundant wildlife. This is a view of Moro do Pico, at 323 metres tall it’s the highest point of the island.

Whilst scanning archive pictures I’ve also been keeping abreast of various news. Originally I thought I might need to take a trip down to London today to visit the latest national StopHs2 protest, but as I predicted the other day – it’s turned into a damp squib that wasn’t worth bothering with. If it had happened it would have been the first national StopHs2 demonstration since 2004. As it is, the Stop Hs2 website lowered expectations yesterday when they published this excuse.

“On Wednesday, Elizabeth Cairns and Matt Bishop invite you to join them in Parliament. This event will NOT be happening in Portcullis House, no matter what Facebook says, and there is no rally in outside Parliament either. Stop HS2 will also be launching our latest briefing for MPs that day, but that is a separate thing, so sorry for any confusion as the two things got a bit mixed up!”

Really? So what WILL be happening? Not a lot it seems. This is a classic example of someone writing cheques they can’t cash. I don’t think Ms Cairns actually understood what this entailed. Hence this…

“I’m asking people to come as individuals, to use your democratic right to visit parliament, lobby your MP and make your voice heard. I will be there with my family from 11am and plan to stay in the public spaces (st Stephens hall) peacefully as long as I am able to be there and welcome anyone who wishes to join me.“

OK, so no-one’s actually made an appointment to see their MP then? By the way, here’s today’s Order paper. Somehow, I think many MPs may have better tings to do…

Later, this video appeared on Facebook. Apparently, all of 6 MPs were lobbied and that was a ‘success’. Excuse me if I’m underwhelmed! Meanwhile, back in the wider world, Grant Shapps, the Transport Minister has yet again confirmed that an announcement on Hs2 will be made next month.

Daft anti HS2 stuff aside I was saddened to hear that today, yet another of the Monty Python team has passed away. We lost Neil Innes at the end of last year. Today, Terry Jones joined the choir invisible after battling a rare form of dementia since 2017. There’s so much that I could write about this subject, but this isn’t the blog to do it in. Suffice to say I feel so much for Terry’s family. It’s an awful thing to happen. Dementia and mental illness rob you of the person you loved. It takes their essence and leaves a husk. Personally (having experienced lost a for few loved ones in my time) I think it’s one of the worst things to have to cope with. My heart goes out to them, but I’m also grateful that Terry (and Neil) have left us all with so many happy memories – and a huge amount of laughs!

Monday miscellany…

20 Monday Jan 2020

Posted by in Hs2, Journalism, Musings, Photography, Politics, Travel

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Today’s been yet another mixed bag where I’ve been keeping a wary eye on the world whilst keeping occupied scanning a selection of old slides – both rail and travel. I was up early in order to get another selection of travel shots from Brazil under my belt. That particular album’s coming along quite nicely now as I’m 2/3 of the way through the first folio and I’ll soon be starting on the selection from the island of Fernando do Noronha. Meanwhile, here’s a sample of one of today’s images from Olinda in Pernambuco state. It’s an incredibly colourful old town with some fine old buildings. You can find the rest of the Brazilian pictures here.

In order to add variety I’m simultaneously scanning some old rail shots from 1990. The idea will be to swap between rail and travel so there’s always something of interest to someone. of course, the railways looked very different in 1990 as privatisation wasn’t even on the agenda at that time.

In those days Euston was still dominated by electric locomotives – as this picture shows.

From front to back are 86205, 86406, 86414, 86228 and 87014. 6th May 1990.

I was passing through Euston to head on up to an open day at Bescot locomotive depot just outside Birmingham. The depot put on a good show with a large variety of locomotives on display, including some withdrawn examples like 47901 here in the foreground. The weather was ideal for such an event and I certainly chewed through some film that day!

I’m still scanning the Bescot shots which you’ll be able to find in this gallery when they’re all done.

Whilst I was busy scanning the media was full of the latest leak about HS2 and a supposed ‘draft’ of the Oakervee report. Initially reported in the Financial Times the story was soon picked up by other outlets including the BBC. The leak was an odd one as it seems to have come from within government. It was soon clear that it was more spin than fact, as Andrew Sentance (one of the Oakervee Committee members made clear to the BBC. here’s how it was covered on Twitter by the BBC’s Rory Cellan-Jones..

Sentence also had this to say (via the BBC).

Yet again HS2 gets caught up in political games in Downing St. Mind you, HS2 isn’t the only mixed message coming out of No 10. There’s also the whole farce around Brexit the economy and promises made by Johnson to car makers before the election that have already fallen by the wayside. Let’s face it, when you have a Prime Minister who’s been sacked twice for lying you can hardly trust them, can you? Johnson may have an 80 seat majority but it’s becoming clear that his government isn’t coherent or clear in purpose. Improving the UKs infrastructure post Brexit is meant to be one of their big ideas, but the message is already riven by briefings and counter briefings, such as on HS2, which suggests a Government that’s less than united. It would be very interesting to know who in Government is briefing against HS2. Cummings?

Northern and Midlands leaders and several MPs have reacted with fury to these games by Downing St, demanding the the Oakervee review’s published so that there can’t be any more spin about its contents. We will have to see if they get their wish anytime soon…

Away from the shenanigans in Downing St it’s clear that the Harvil Rd protest has fizzled out again. Despite a few dozen Extinction Rebellion supporters and StopHs2’s Joe Rukin pitching up to make a few self-congratulatory videos claiming they’d ‘retaken’ Harvil Rd (they hadn’t) most of them had already drifted off by Sunday. It’s now business as usual as a visit to the ‘Protect the Colne Valley’ Facebook page will show. The flow of Facebook videos has dried up and work to clear the site continues pretty much unhindered.