Monthly Archives: May 2015

Number crunching…

30 Saturday May 2015

Posted by in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Virgin West Coast, WCML

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Following on from yesterday’s blog about the anti Hs2 campaigns false claims of ‘falling’ passenger numbers & no business case for Hs2 I’ve been crunching a few numbers.

When Virgin Trains started running trains on the West Coast Main Line (WCML) in 1997 there were 13.6 million passenger journeys. In 2014 that had increased to 34.5million – an increase of 153.6% or an average of 5.6% per year. The Hs2 business case is based on an annual growth of just 2% per year up to 2039..

We are already far, far ahead of Hs2’s conservative projections – and that’s just because of one TOC on the WCML.

According to the anti Hs2 mob, these people don't exist. (or should just get an earlier train)...

According to the anti Hs2 mob, these people don’t exist. (or should just get an earlier train)…

Yet another nail in the anti Hs2 campaigns coffin

29 Friday May 2015

Posted by in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Virgin Trains, WCML

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One of the most laughable aspects of the anti Hs2 campaign is the way antis try & pretend there’s no capacity argument for building Hs2. They do this by focusing exclusively on peak time Virgin trains services out of Euston & ignore everything else such as inter regional & local services, freight, or capacity constraints at other major stations on the routes Hs2 will relieve. These ‘look over there’ tactics fool a few observers but anyone with any knowledge or experience of the railways isn’t fooled.

A few are even stupid enough to try & pretend passenger numbers are falling. Like this one;

Docorb

Such idiotic claims fly in the face of fact – as the latest statistics from ORR (released in March 2015) so clearly show:

ORR

What’s also significant is the even larger rise in long distance passenger kilometres (The number of kilometres travelled by passengers on the network).

ORR 3

This isn’t an isolated rise either. The last ORR release for Quarter 2 noted record numbers then too:

ORR 2

Then long distance passenger Km’s rose by 5.5%

Click to access passenger-rail-usage-quality-report-2014-15-q2.pdf

Of course these are only the long distance figures. There’s sustained growth across all the other sectors too. Hs2 antis deliberately ignore them but it’s obvious they have an impact on mainline capacity as they use all the main stations that long distance services like Virgin West Coast do!

Another nail in their coffin is an interview with Virgin Trains West Coast Executive Director (Ops), Phil Bearpark which has been published in the Railway Gazette.

This mentions that Virgin have enjoyed ‘linear’ growth since the introduction of the 2007 VHF timetable. So much so that passenger journeys reached 34.5m in 2014-15. Bearpark told RG that “if numbers continue to rise at the same rate, then in 2026, when Hs2 starts, it is our intention that we’ll have got to 50 million passengers by then through year-on-year growth” In Bearpark’s words. This “was the business case for hs2”

Of course, this is just the WCML. Hs2 also releases capacity on the East Coast and Midland main lines, which are also experiencing a growth in traffic & capacity constraints.

With the economy picking up & the UK population projected to hit 70 million by 2027 (the year after Hs2 phase 1 opens ) & 73.2 million by 2035 (two years after phase 2) there’s no reason at all to believe Bearpark’s projections are optimistic . Well, not unless you’re an Hs2 anti in denial of course!

Whatever happened to…

29 Friday May 2015

Posted by in Nostalgia, Pubs, Sowerby Bridge

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– those fantastic pub Landlords & Landladies that used to make some alehouses such a pleasure to visit?

I’m old enough to remember the days when a pub was known by the character of the person who ran it – those individual Landlords or Landladies who made a pub their own. In those days the licensees name above the door actually meant something. I can still remember the name of the Landlady of the first pub I drank in as a teenager nearly 40 years ago – Grace Kathleen Taylor. She was replaced by a real character called Monica Brownlee. Anyone who drank in the Old Ship in Southport back in the 1980s couldn’t fail to remember Monica with her cheroots, her leather pants & those snappy one-liners delivered in an Irish brogue! Those were the days…

Nowadays you’d be hard pressed to even know who the licensees of many pubs are. Their territory’s no longer marked with their names above the door & for better or worse, many of them leave the running of the pub to bar staff & rarely grace the customers with their presence. Not that some of them have any presence to be honest…

I mention this because tonight I ventured into a pub that we used to frequent & found it a shadow of its former self. A few years ago this pub in Sowerby Bridge was a vibrant community pub. Owned by the Ossett Brewery, the place was run by landlady Linda who employed a great bunch of bar staff. That said, Linda was behind the bar herself most nights. You knew it was her establishment & she knew her regulars & what they drank – which was always a sign of a good pub.

Sadly, Linda & her partner Rob moved on & were replaced by a chap who only lasted a year or so at most. I hadn’t been in for a while but I’d bumped into some of the old regulars who told me the pub had been taken over by another new manager & it had gone downhill. The prices had gone up & the atmosphere had gone down. Last night I popped in & saw why. One harassed barman was trying to serve several people all on his own. Of the ‘landlady’ there was no sign (apparently, she hadn’t been seen all night). Finally, after the rush had died down, a young lady in slippers & semi-pajamas drifted downstairs. Without a word to anyone (including the barman) or even acknowledging their presence she emptied some bags of change into the till before disappearing back upstairs like a wraith.

Needless to say, I won’t be calling in again. If Ossett wonder why the takings at one of their pubs has taken a dive, perhaps they should look at the quality of their staff training & recruitment.

Parliament’s back to work & the HS2 Bill moves on

27 Wednesday May 2015

Posted by in Anti Hs2 mob, General election, Hs2, Hs2aa, Politics, StopHs2

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Today’s Queen’s speech means Parliament is back at work & progress on the Hs2 Hybrid Bill will pick up where it left off – with a slight amendment. One of the Hybrid Bill members lost his seat at the election so a replacement will need to be found for the former Lib-Dem MP for Eastleigh, Mike Thornton. There’s speculation in some circles that his replacement will come from the SNP as they’ve replaced the Lib-Dems as the 3rd largest. We shall have to wait and see…

Continuity is also the name of the game over at the Department of Transport where Patrick McLaughlin remains in post as Transport Minister. This is good news for the rail industry and Hs2 as there’s no need to get a new Minister up to speed with what needs to be done.

Of course, all this is bad news for the anti Hs2 camp who don’t seem know which way to turn now their ‘great white hope’ (UKIP) has vanished in a cloud of voting papers – taking a huge chunk of the anti Hs2 tweeters with them. The anti Hs2 mobs Twitter campaign has descended into farce since the election. There are still a few blowhards hanging on from the old days who think ranting on the internet changes anything but many of them are isolated individuals with no backing, or what can be charitably called ‘special people’. Here’s a typical example of the isolated Tweeter from that well known hotbed of anti hs2 activism. Err, Lisburn, in Northern Ireland (‘hotbed’? Are you sure this is right? Ed).

Busker

The folks who are noticeable by their absence nowadays are the supposed ‘action group’ network although this is hardly surprising. They’ve been in decline for years & really have nowhere to go anymore. The Hybrid Bill petitioning process has drawn any sting they might have thought they had – and the election results have shown they’ve no political clout (even at a local council level). Their public rallies have been abandoned as an embarrassment as so few folks turn up. So there’s little reason for their existence any more.

I do genuinely feel sorry for the people who are affected by Hs2 & who’ve been gulled into thinking the anti campaign really could stop Hs2. They’ve been given false hope & some of them have thrown away both time & money. The election results have shown that the scales have dropped from quite a few eyes. Sadly it’s too much to hope that the people who cynically exploit them (StopHs2 & Hs2aa) will suffer an outbreak of honesty, realism or contrition. However, the good news is that as their activist base dies a source of funding dries up too. As StopHs2 funds come predominantly from one man – it’s anyone’s guess when he’ll see sense & stops throwing his money away.

As another example of a campaign going nowhere fast I’ve updated the antis ‘scores on the doors’. These show their social media growth (or not!) on Facebook & Twitter.

Hs2

The usual caveats apply. Not all followers are supporters etc…

Looking through social media the anti’s sense of aggrieved bewilderment is obvious. Some of them had bought into their own hype so completely they still can’t admit what had really happened at the election. There’s complete denial over the implications of their general election no-show & risible ‘no votes for you with Hs2’campaign (which influenced no-one at all). What none of them will talk about or deal with is the awkward question of ‘how are we going to Stop Hs2 now’? Because the answer is staring them in the face. They can’t. At the risk of falling in the trap of Godwin’s law – I can only compare them to the last days of the Third Reich & the mentality inside the bunker as the Russians closed in, with UKIP in the role of General Felix Steiner’s Army Detachment.

No doubt there’ll still be media speculation & a fair bit of froth in the next few months as the Hs2 Hybrid Bill continues its course through Parliament but the position is clear. There’s no credible opposition to Hs2 & there’s even less of a credible alternative. Rail passenger growths continues apace as the economy picks up – and look out for some interesting statistics & comments to appear from Virgin Trains on their West Coast business.

SWT Convert their Class 455 fleet to AC traction

21 Thursday May 2015

Posted by in Class 455, Engineering, Rail Investment, South West Trains

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Yesterday I visited South West Trains Wimbledon Park depot to see the second of their Class 455 fleet being converted to AC traction & hear Christian Roth, Engineering Director for South West Trains, who was on hand to talk about the reasons for the programme.

Converting the 91 strong fleet from DC to AC traction will cost £38m. It’s funded jointly by owners Porterbrook and the Department of Transport (with DfT stumping up a 3rd of the cost). The project has a number of aims & advantages, which are;

AC traction motors give the train regenerative braking capability saving £2m a year in electricity bills and lessening wear and tear on the braking equipment compared to pure friction braking.

They’ll have new Wheel Slip Protection (WSP) system which is based on modern, European Algorithms rather than the legacy BR system the 30yr old units have now. This will reduce wheel flats during the leaf fall season & help extend the exam period from 10,000 miles to 15,000 miles. The new A/c motors are also less prone to damage from snow ingress.

Christian explained that the cost of overhauling a Class 455 is around £150,000-£200,000, so extending that period by 1/3 on a 91 strong fleet is a not insignificant saving. It’s not hard to see that there are advantages to carrying out the conversion. But the most significant one isn’t to do with the 455s at all…

Extending the maintenance regime frees up space at Wimbledon Park allowing it to become home to SWTs next fleet – The 30×5 car Class 707 Desiro City trains from Siemens. This £210m investment is vital to tackle growth & overcrowding on the SW network. Without the space at Wimbledon Park a new depot would have been necessary, significantly altering the finances of the Class 707 project. After Christian’s briefing we went to inspect the second unit to be converted (5870) which was sitting inside the Inspection shed on 12 road. Here’s a look at the work.

Fitting the AC traction package to 62778 from 5870

Fitting the AC traction package to 62778 from 5870

AC traction motors installed in 62778s bogies

AC traction motors installed in 62778s bogies

AC traction control pack for 62778

AC traction control pack for 62778

High speed circuit breaker for 62778

High speed circuit breaker for 62778

The first unit to be converted (5732) was also done at Wimbledon Park (in exactly the same place) back in 2014. Here it is;

DG184054. First AC Class 455 conversion. Wimbledon Park depot. 30.6.14.

Right now 5732 is undergoing tests between Bournemouth & Weymouth. Once 5870 is completed (which is expected to be 19th June) it’ll also be sent to Bournemouth & the two trains will carry out further tests such as passing at speed & running as 8-cars.

Christian told us that the testing programme is going well with the equipment performing “better than expected”
Once testing is finished by the end of July the converted trains will enter service & free up others for the programme which will be carried out at the Arriva train depot at Eastleigh, starting at the end of August/ beginning of September. Three trains per week will be converted until the programme is complete in August 2016.
So, if you’re an aficianado of the 1930s designed English Electric EE507 traction motors, you’ve got little more than a year to hear these long serving beasts in action under the 455s…

Here’s another fan with the EE507s taken out of 5870;

Roger Ford & old friends...

Roger Ford & old friends…

A personal view of Railtex

16 Saturday May 2015

Posted by in Hitachi, Rail Investment, Railtex, Railways, Siemens

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Earlier this week I spent a couple of days at the Railtex trade trade fair at the NEC in Birmingham. In truth, I could have done with being there for all three days as the show had a record number of exhibitors and an awful lot to see & do – and people to talk to.

The event was opened by Network Rail Chairman Professor Richard Parry-Jones who delivered a keynote speech in which he talked about way technology is transforming lives (and railways), the cost of providing extra capacity & his worry that the industry is under-providing capacity for future demand. Afterwards he went ‘walk-about’ to visit some of the exhibitors such as Siemens, Hitachi and Derby based Rail Vehicle Engineering Ltd (RVEL).

Network Rail Chairman, Professor Richard Parry Jones chatting to Andy Lynch RVELs Managing Director on their stand at Railtex

Network Rail Chairman, Professor Richard Parry Jones chatting to RVEL Managing Director, Andy Lynch on their stand at Railtex

Meanwhile, the show was getting into full swing. The Chinese had a big presence this year with both CSR and CNR having large stands that must have kept Chinese model makers busy for months as both displayed huge numbers of product models – including CNRs high speed trains. On the CSR stand a signing ceremony was held to seal co-operation between the company & the universities of Birmingham, Southampton & Central London by forming the China-UK joint research & development centre for rail technology. In a statement, CSR said the centre would look at developing new technologies, new materials and new production processes.

DG213298. China - UK rail research co-operation agreement. Railtex 2015. 12.5.15.

Although they had separate stands, the two companies are merging to create the world’s largest railway equipment manufacturer. The merger should be complete by the end of the year.

Elsewhere, Hitachi were demonstrating their 3-D interior images and design theory of their ‘British Bullet train’ – a potential offering for Hs2. The design draws upon key influences from existing and influential rolling stock in the UK. Using these to look forward & address the needs of future passengers by providing a train that has the flexibility to grow and evolve with their needs. Take a look..

Sleek & stylish, the British bullet train from Hitachi.

Sleek & stylish, the British bullet train from Hitachi.

How standard class might look

How standard class might look

Could this be the 1st Class of the future?

Could this be the 1st Class of the future?

The Europeans had been busy too. Siemens had a large stand showcasing their impressive array of products, including Trains, signalling systems & power supplies. In a low key launch the company had slipped out a model of a new 125mph EMU for the UK market – the Desiro Verve. Siemens told me they’ll be doing an expanded launch for this train later in the year.

The new Desiro Verve.

The new Desiro Verve.

Of course Railtex wasn’t all about new trains. One of the strengths of the event is variety of exhibitors from the massive multinationals through to the small UK companies who supply equipment & expertise worldwide. Railtex is the ideal opportunity to check-out what they have to offer. It’s also a fantastic place to touch base with companies you already work with -and meet potential new ones. I ended up working for several at the event itself as well as arranging new business. At the end of day 1 the networking event allowed many of us to meet in an relaxed atmosphere over a drink & some snacks before heading off to more events – or take the weight off tired feet!

Day 2 began with another keynote address, this time by Alstom UK President  Terence Watson (wearing his Rail Supply Group Co-Chair’s hat). Terence spoke about the value of the rail supply chain, how big the world wide market is – and how small UK exports are at the moment compared to the likes of China & Germany.

Wednesday seemed far busier than the first day & I found myself tied up with visiting as many of my contacts, colleagues & friends as I could before I had to leave. This meant that I missed out on many of the interesting seminars that I’d wanted to listen to altough I did make time to get to the Hs2 update. Sadly, Prof McNaughton was double booked, so a change in the programme saw him replaced by Jon Kerby, Director of BIM at High Speed 2 who talked more generally about the strategic implementation of BIM & the development of a digital railway. I’d have loved to have made it to the Thameslink & Great Western route modernisation seminars too, but I ran out of time. Another day – hopefully…

From my personal perspective Railtex was a great success. Many others I talked to thought so too. I’ll certainly be back next time. One theme I was left with was the continued development of rail technology & the growth of high speed rail. What was on offer at Railtex shows just how uninformed & stupid Jeremy Paxman’s Financial Times rant about HS2 & HSR being ’19th century’ really is!

If you want to see more pictures of Railtex,follow this link to the gallery on my picture website;

http://paulbigland.zenfolio.com/p508759096

 

 

Trains, beer and the anti Hs2 mobs latest disaster

14 Thursday May 2015

Posted by in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Hs2aa, rail ale

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I’ve finally got a few minutes spare to blog an update from this special train from St Pancras to the Barrow Hill Rail ale festival, where I’ve been taking PR pictures on board.

To say it’s been another busy week would be somewhat of an understatement. I’ve spent the past few days at the excellent Railtex trade fair at Birmingham,(I’ll be blogging about that over the weekend). Two days really wasn’t enough – I could have done to stay for all three as it was a hectic whirl of networking, photo opportunities and making new contacts.

In the midst of all this, the anti Hs2 mob provided a bit of light relief with Hs2aa’s ridiculous ‘thunderclap’ (an attempt to capitalise on social media that backfired spectacularly). Here’s the final score:

thunderclap

A paltry 1221 members shows just how irrelevant their campaign’s become. To make matters worse they forgot to include a rather important hashtag so its internet impact was zero! How much longer their campaign can survive is a very good question as they’ve nowhere left to turn.

I’ll drink to their demise when I get to Barrow Hill later. In the meantime, if you fancy a visit to the rail ale festival, here are the details;

Railale

Another busy week…

11 Monday May 2015

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After a week at home I’m back on the rails & heading for Birmingham. I’ll be based there for the next couple of days as this years Railtex exhibition is at the NEC. It starts tomorrow & should be a fascinating event. From what I’ve seen so far it promises to be the largest ever. There’s a whole host of presentations on matters such as rail electrification & Hs2, plus train builder Hitachi has something to say on their vision for high speed rail. Railtex is always a good event to catch up with friends, colleagues & keep abreast of developments in a diverse & growing industry.

In the meantime, we await the announcement of the new Tory transport team & who will be appointed Transport Minister. Whoever it is will have a busy time! There are some huge schemes & big ticket items for the department to look after.

Meanwhile,  Labour have to choose their shadow team. I suspect the industry won’t be sad to see the back of Michael Dugher as his grandstanding & attitude made him few friends. It would be good to see Labour match the Tories pledge to get more women into senior roles & give the job to the talented Lilian Greenwood…

Expect some blogging & lots of pictures to appear over the next few days. After B’ham I’m back in London for another event that combines two loves – beer and trains!

Election 2015 – an absolute disaster for the anti Hs2 campaign.

08 Friday May 2015

Posted by in Anti Hs2 mob, General election, Hs2

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Phew – what an election night that was! Those pundits claiming it was going to be boring were proved wrong. Then again, so were the pollsters. So much for a hung Parliament and another coalition…

I’ll ignore my personal disappointment at the overall result to focus on the implications for HS2 and a look at how badly the night went for the anti Hs2 campaign. OK, let’s not beat about the bush here it didn’t go ‘badly’ – it was an outright disaster. Throughout the election campaign I’ve been blogging about how the anti campaign’s been writing cheques it can’t cash. Their laughable ‘no votes for you with Hs2’ being the classic example of hype & hyperbole. Now the results are in and so we can cut through the spin & look at the reality.

First off has to be the supposed anti Hs2 ‘strongholds’ which are the Chilterns & Warwickshire. The results in both are very, very telling. Antis claimed Hs2 was the pivotal event that would decide the election in North Warwickshire (formerly held by Dan Byles MP, who was standing down). The result?

N warks

Well, that went well then! Meanwhile, in the Chilterns, UKIP were making great play of their opposition to Hs2 as they expected it would deliver them Aylesbury. After all – wasn’t this the epicentre of opposition to Hs2 with the whole county up in arms about the project? Obviously not…

Ayesbury

As the article states, Lidlington’s vote was down a mere 1.5% which, when you consider the outrageous claims of the anti Hs2 campaigners is a pretty damning indictment of their supposed influence. Mind you, If I was UKIP I’d be very pissed off with the anti hs2 mob. They promised the party thousands of votes & failed to deliver every time. It’s clear UKIP were fooled into banking their votes, assuming this meant they were a shoo-in at constituencies Hs2 passed through.

It’s not just the general election either. There were council elections too. Here’s the results in another supposed stronghold of the anti Hs2 campaign – Wendover in Bucks, where all 3 seats were won by the Tories.

Wendover

In fact, there’s nowhere the anti Hs2 campaign manifested itself in the popular vote. They failed to wield any influence in their supposed ‘strongholds’ or anywhere else on the route. As for away from the route – forget it! I’ve long said that their campaign’s a chimera, oft talked about but never seen. Sections of the media have given them an easy ride & never scrutinised their claims. That needs to change & I hope this blog will encourage fellow journalists to do that.

Back in the real world it’s clear that Hs2 will continue just as soon as Parliament reconvenes. The election result couldn’t have been worse for the anti Hs2 campaign. The Tories return without coalition partners, UKIP have been emasculated and the one Labour front bencher who was seen as wavering on Hs2 (Ed Balls) has lost his seat.

One can’t help wondering how long it’ll be before those who fund StopHs2 & the other anti organisations wake up, smell the coffee & realise they’re only throwing their money way…

UPDATE:

After grabbing a few hours sleep I’ve woken up to find some of the anti Hs2 mob are still dreaming! A quick look at social media has shown just how utterly deluded members of their campaign are. Here’s a few examples;

Crazy

Talk about being in denial? The PM’s just been re-elected for another 5 years with the Hs2 antis having shown they’ve absolutely no electoral clout – even in the Chilterns.

More delusions that aren’t even worth commenting on..

Bonkers 2

Bonkers 3

Daft

Oh, there’s one result that speaks volumes. The only constituency that had someone standing purely on an anti Hs2 ticket was Westminster North. Here’s the result.

Westminster Nth

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14001036

So, what next for the anti Hs2 mob? The oblivion I predicted earlier in the year. They’ve had the worst possible result. Within hours of the results becoming clear, returning Chancellor George Osborne tweeted this:

Osborne

Of course, Hs2 is a major plank of Osborne’s Northern powerhouse…

I predict it won’t be long before Warks millionaire Joe Elliott (the man who’s bankrolled StopH2) finally puts his chequebook away & that group folds. Will Hs2aa be far behind?

Crunch time for the anti Hs2 mob…

07 Thursday May 2015

Posted by in Anti Hs2 mob, General election, Hs2, Hs2aa

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Today the anti Hs2 campaign finishes its electoral campaign not with a bang but a whimper.

What’s been remarkable is how low key their campaign has been. Admittedly, both StopHs2 and Hs2aa are skint due to a shortage of donors & having blown all their money on futile court cases so a big poster or mainstream media campaign was out of the question. The only way they could try & make a fuss was on social media but even that’s been quiet. If it wasn’t for UKIP supporters desperately trying to keep the issue alive in the vain hope of grabbing some votes there’s be bugger all going on. Remember, there’s meant to be THREE main groups opposing Hs2. The presence of one (AGHAST) has been so off the radar it’s positively subterranean! Their Campaigns Manager, Deanne Dukhan (@DuKhanD)has tweeted a grand total of twice this month & only a handful of times during the entire campaign. No-one else from AGHAST has even bothered. Mind you, up to the start of the election their campaign website was STILL advertising a petition that closed in 2012 so it’s not really a surprise.

Contrast this with the antis fantasy claims of a million people ‘blighted’ by Hs2, or that the majority of the UK opposes the project & you really do have to wonder what planet they’re living on. Whatever it is – it obviously doesn’t have access to Facebook, Twitter or the letters pages of UK newspapers!

Poor Hs2aa have tried to pretend they’re still an influence by recycling the same old lies, like the £138bn ‘cost’ of Hs2 I exposed here

Their latest wheeze is a ‘thunderclap’. Here’s the explanation from their website.

thunderclap

What’s laughable about this is the fact they never learn. Last year the anti Hs2 campaign tried what’s known as a ‘Twitterstorm’. The idea was that if enough people tweet about Hs2 the hashtag would ‘trend’ – showing their influence & how many folks were opposed. The result was nothing short of total embarrassment. Less than 100 folks tweeted. All it demonstrated was how few real people supported them. They’ve never tried it since. Until now…

Here’s their results so far.

hs2aa

Embarrassing, isn’t it? Remember this is a campaign that claims to represent the views of millions of people & that Hs2 is such an important issue it could seriously influence the result of the election. These ridiculous claims will be laid bare on Friday – and I’ll let you know how their ‘thunderclap’ goes as I doubt anyone will hear it otherwise!

In the meantime, I’ll be staying up to watch the election results tonight. I’m looking forward to one or two ‘popcorn moments’ – especially the one from Thanet South. I’ll be taking time to Tweet & run this blog until tiredness or boredom sets in.