Monthly Archives: December 2016

Farewell 2016.

31 Saturday Dec 2016

Posted by in Brexit

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It’s been an odd year for all sorts of reasons, both personal and in a wider context. If you believe the media commentary it’s been defined by dead celebrities but clearly, there’s far more to it than that. Despite the laws of averages I can’t think of another year that’s seen the demise of so many talented people – many of whom provided the soundtrack to my life. That’s not to mention the people who’ve entertained me in films or who made a real difference in the political or social arena.

Offset against these tragedies are the undoubted advances we’ve made in the fields of medicine, education, poverty and green energy. In many ways, humanity has progressed in the past year.

The problem has been politics.

Many of us are deeply worried about the rise of fascism in a post-truth political world. Both the Brexit vote and Donald Trump becoming US president have been major upsets that share one thing in common. Neither were a majority choice. Trump lost the popular vote by several million. Brexit was also the choice of a minority of the electorate – although it’s been presented otherwise.

Both these events have heralded a rise in intolerance and hatred, and both have the potential to hurt most the people who fell for the lies. The question is – what will happen when people realise they were lied to, that there is no land of milk and honey – and that their lives will be made worse, not better?

2017 is going to present us with some major challenges. It’s important that those of us who hold liberal, tolerant values aren’t browbeaten into shutting up about all this the way the Brexit camp want. Their leaders know the Brexit project is ‘mission impossible’ so they want to impose it before people wake up to the reality (after all, they’ve enough bread that they don’t have to eat the shit sandwich they’re serving). It’s incumbent on us to stop that happening.

 

 

 

All’s quiet on the Hs2 front…

30 Friday Dec 2016

Posted by in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Hs2aa, StopHs2, Yorkshire

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As it’s the penultimate day of 2016 I thought I’d take one last look at Hs2 and the campaign set up to stop it. To say antis have had a terrible 2016 is somewhat of an understatement. The Lords Hs2 Committee published their final report on December 15th which brought to an end the petitioning process that has lasted since 2014. The report served thin gruel to anti Hs2 campaigners but it did offer support for those on the route who will face genuine hardships. The reports suggested amendments will be debated early in 2017 with Royal Assent being granted soon after. After that, it’s all over bar the moaning as Phase 1 construction will begin.

Meanwhile, back on November 15th, the Government published details of the final phase of Hs2 – 2b, moving the debate on from phase 1 completely.

So, where does that leave the Stop Hs2 campaign? Dead in the water to be honest. Just like UKIP voters, their campaign’s been dying off for years (both figuratively and literally). The only ‘national’ group left by November was phase 1 based StopHs2. If they were to have any chance of survival they would need to be re-invigorated by a massive upsurge in the opposition to Hs2 due to the announcement of phases 2a and 2b. The problem is – this never happened. Let’s crunch some social media numbers. Here’s a look at the StopHs2 and Hs2aa following on Twitter and Facebook, comparing the day after the Phase 2 announcement with today.

scores-30-dec

The usual caveat applies. Not all followers are supporters. Some are there simply to keep an eye on them. The numbers can’t lie. They show that interest in Stophs2 has barely moved. When you consider the amount of people living on the recently announced routes a gain of 149 Facebook ‘likes’ and 69 Twitter followers is appalling. Campaign Manager Joe Rukin and StopHs2 Chair Penny Gaines have done even worse. As for Hs2aa – don’t even go there! For the first time since StopHs2 was established, nothing’s been heard from Gaines, Rukin or any of the StopHs2 accounts in the week since Xmas eve. This doesn’t bode well…

I suggest that these figures and the fact the number of regular stopHs2 tweeters is now below two dozen shows just how badly their campaign has done. There’s been no Phase 2 bounce at all. It can only be a matter of time now before StopHs2 folds, leaving no ‘national’ group to co-ordinate any sort of ‘fight’ on Phase 2.

However, there’s more.

I’ve always pointed out that social media is a double-edged sword for pressure groups and campaigns. It exposes their weaknesses as much as any strengths – especially on Phase 2, where their Facebook groups are pretty revealing. If you track the different new phases you find there’s no discernible organised ‘action’ groups on phase 2a to Crewe and only a handful of moribund groups on the Western branch to Manchester. Here’s an example. This is from the CADRAG (Culcheth and District Rail Action Group) page.

cadrag

No doubt this inertia and lack of interest is shared by other groups which is why you never hear anything about them anymore (eg, Mid Cheshire and Warrington StopHs2). It’s only the route change on the branch to Leeds via Sheffield that’s generated some new groups, but what they’re saying on social media is hardly a defiant or united message. Here’s some to watch; Erewash Crofton Mexborough and here’s the optimistically named Yorkshire against Hs2 which features appeals for people to attend two national demonstrations,  neither of which ever happened!

demos-that-never-happened

All told, the stophs2 campaign in Yorkshire is a mess. It’s riven by opposing views as many people want Hs2, whilst some just want to move the route back to Meadowhall. They don’t have the same political support as Hs2 opponents did on Phase 1. For a start, there’s no 51M group of councils, nor do they have any MPs who’ve come out to directly oppose Hs2. In fact, of the 51 MPs in Yorkshire only 2 voted to oppose Hs2 – and they were away from the route in Huddersfield and Shipley! Despite some trying to replay the phase 1 campaign, they can’t use two of the main arguments as phase 2 doesn’t pass through an AONB and it’s clear that people living near the route benefit from a station in Sheffield, the training college in Doncaster and a potential parkway station elsewhere in Yorkshire.

I predict that 2017 will see a very different situation surrounding Hs2. Once Phase 1 construction starts and thousands of people take up jobs building the route I expect public opinion towards Hs2 begin to change – especially as the anti campaign will have faded away. Phase 2 will still remain an issue but the level of opposition is very different in type and scale. Don’t expect it to receive the same media attention either.

I’ll still be keeping an occaisional eye on Hs2 matters, but for the first part of 2017 expect to see a lot more blogs appearing. I’m off out to SE Asia for a couple of months, so I’ll have plenty of time to write. In the meantime, Happy New Year!

Has Copeland spoiled Labour’s Xmas spirit?

21 Wednesday Dec 2016

Posted by in Politics, Uncategorized

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The news that Labour MP Jamie Reed is to stand down in Copeland, his Lake District constituency in February 2017 has probably soured the mood at some Labour Xmas gatherings. Thrice elected Reed had a thin majority of just 2,564 over his Conservative challenger since the 2015 general election. UKIP came 3rd in the seat which encompasses the towns of Whitehaven and Keswick whilst extending down the Cumbrian coast as far as Millom. Although overwhelmingly rural nowadays, it used to be a big coal mining and industrial area. Unemployment is low at 4% but it has a large retired population at 19% which helps to explain the popularity of UKIP and why the area voted to leave the EU by 62%

Here’s a breakdown of the constituencies demographic from UK Polling report.

Reed has gone to join one of the areas main employers, British Nuclear Fuels Ltd (BNFL). Why has he gone now? It could well be because he knows his seat is at risk to the Tories under Jeremy Corbyn, who he’s always opposed as Labour leader. And there’s the rub for his party. Corbyn opposes both nuclear power and Trident. Who are the two biggest employers in the area? BNFL and BAE systems shipyard in nearby Barrow in Furness! You get the picture…

This could get to be a very interesting contest as all traditional bets are off after Brexit. But how will Brexit influence the result. No-one knows. The resurgent Lib-Dems have never done well in the area so have nothing to lose by standing on a Strong pro EU platform. They won’t win the seat but no-one else is offering anything to the folks who feel disenfranchised by Labour’s volte face to support Brexit. They’re looking for a home and a voice. And what about Bregetters? There’s growing evidence that this phenomenon exists now there’s no good economic news coming out of the result to leave the EU – nor is there likely to be, and the region did very well out of EU farming subsidies and other grants.

On the other side we have UKIP. If they haven’t gone bankrupt by then (they were due to pay 172,000 euros back to the EU today) will this week’s leader, Paul Nuttall throw his hat into the ring as their candidate?

In truth, I suspect the more likely result is that the Tories could wrest control, which would be a disaster for Corbyn as the constituency has been Labour since 1935. Copeland is a long way from Westminster and a world away from Corbyn’s North London constituency. If the Tories put up a strong local candidate things could get very interesting…

Wakefield reflections…

12 Monday Dec 2016

Posted by in Brexit, Transport, Travel

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My job and my wanderlust take me all over the place, which can be both good and bad. I get to see some truly inspiring or stunning places, but then there’s the flip side of the coin and today was it..

After spending the morning taking portraits of the new (and old) staff members of ACoRP in Huddersfield I had to head to London. I was too late to catch the last of Grand Central’s morning services to the capital and the weather was too grey and grim for decent photography so I came up  with the idea of heading over to Wakefield to have a look at the revamped Kirkgate station, then have a mooch around town. I once crowned Kirkgate as the UKs worst station but the place has come on in leaps and bounds since then. Millions has been spent refurbishing it, bringing it back to life as a business centre as well as a station. It also boasts a café, which seems to be thriving. It was certainly busy when I popped in for a coffee. Whilst I was there I bumped into Andy Savage from the Railway Heritage Trust. He and his colleagues were visiting to weigh up the stations suitability as a home for a L&Y Rly war memorial that’s been stored at the East Lancs railway ever since Horwich works closed in the 1980s.

Having had my mood lifted by the company and the coffee I made the mistake of wandering into the town. Now you have to remember that Wakefield voted by 66.4% to 33.6% to leave the EU, yet, when you stroll through the place it’s pretty obvious that without the Poles and other immigrants the town centre would be devoid of a huge number of shops (and jobs). I bought 4 lovely samosas for £2 at a kebab shop run by Turkish Cypriots. Walking on up to the cathedral I passed numerous other shops which were either foreign owned or staffed by foreign nationals. So, where were the Brits? Well, I was accosted by a few who were begging, and the Wetherspoons appeared to be full of them – as did one or two of the other pubs I passed. Here’s the problem. Many of the Brits I saw were obviously economically inactive – and a fair few looked like they’d be incapable of holding down any job for very long. The contrast was stark – and uncomfortable. I wonder how many of Brits begging or spending their time getting pissed were the ones who voted to Leave the EU so they could kick out the foreigners? Will they be setting up businesses in the empty shops if the Poles and others have to leave? Perhaps some of the British pensioners who may be forced to leave Spain or Portugal settle could take on a kebab shop or two? This is the madness of Brexit. The politics of resentment (stoked by millionaires like Arron Banks) has fuelled a looming economic disaster that will impoverish the towns like Wakefield that voted for it – and it’s not going to be a pretty sight…

Wakefield is a classic example of the fact that you can spend millions of pounds on new buildings and tarting up the town centre, but then what do you do about the people? I struggle to understand what Wakefield thought they would gain by voting leave (other then the ones who genuinely wanted to kick out foreigners, obviously). Brexit hasn’t let them ‘take back control’. It hasn’t left them any better off – exactly the opposite. It won’t reopen the coal mines or the other traditional industries the area used to rely on for jobs, like glass and textiles. It won’t magically turn the economically inactive into Captains of industry. So what will it give them? I wonder if, when the Government ever come clean on what Brexit really does mean – and looks like, will the citizens of Wakefield still think it was a good idea?