• About

Paul Bigland

~ Blogging on transport, travel & whatever takes my fancy.

Paul Bigland

Tag Archives: Economics

Today’s National Audit Office report on HS2 – let the frothing begin!

24 Friday Jan 2020

Posted by Paul Bigland in Economics, Hs2, Railways

≈ 4 Comments

Tags

Economics, Hs2, National Audit Office, Railways

This morning the NAO released their latest report into the HS2 building programme. Like most NAO reports, it’s a solid piece of work that details dispassionately the project successes, failures and the challenges it faces as the UK cracks on with the biggest civil engineering project in Europe that’s going to be under construction for (potentially) the next 20 years. You can find the full report here.

Needlesss to say, the media and social media is already full of froth from people who’ve never even read the report, or at best, have skim-read its conclusions. No doubt some journo’s will trot out their usual trite appelation to claim the it’s a “damning” report (it isn’t. The NAO don’t do ‘damning’, they do sober assessments). You’ll also see ridiculous numbers North of £100bn bandied around, numbers that never appear in the NAO report at all and that have no official recognition. It says a lot about the febrile state of UK journalism that many (including the BBC) will regurgitate this spin. Nowadays it seems even supposedly respected organs like the BBC are merely parasites who lazily feed off other sections of the media to report what they say, rather than do some real research to report the actual facts.

So, what DOES the report say? Nothing that new, or earth-shattering. It’s simply an update on previous NAO reports that have highlighted the complexities and challenges of the HS2 project from its inception.

The report notes that the expected savings HS2 Ltd hoped to make haven’t materialised. Instead, there’s been an increase in costs for almost everything (bar the new trains themselves) – for multiple reasons.

These increases include mundane stuff like greater costs in moving utilities (cables, pipes etc) away from the route – which is hardly surprising as I don’t think any major project hasn’t suffered from this. The report also notes that significant costs have been added in the petitioning process by the Hybrid Bill Committee placating NIMBYs. Here’s what the report says, in their own words.

The irony? The NIMBYS who insisted that HS2 must be buried in tunnels or deep cuttings so they didn’t have to gaze upon it will be the same people who’ll now be screaming about the cost of HS2 rising! The rising costs and the reasons for them are summed up rather neatly in this table.

The report also details that costs have risen because the contractors recruited to deliver the construction of the project were expected to bear more of the financial risks than is usual – but that this is now being addressed.

What does the report say about the actual cost of HS2? Not unreasonably, it reports that this is still a figure liable to change, as is the timescale for opening. Here’s the details.

Note the final costs for the whole of HS2 are in the range of £65-88bn (including contingency). NOT £106bn! Of course you can guarantee much of the media will only use the higher of those two figures, whilst others will still insist on using the fictitious figures of £106-108bn which have no validity whatsoever. They’re certainly aren’t official figures.

What does all this do to the expected benefits of HS2 which are crudely calculated on a Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR). Here’s what the NAO say.

Until the figures are updated in the revised business case, HS2 is now regarded as poor value for money, but not so poor as StopHs2 claim, as they’ve invented a 60p in the pound figure, whilst the NAO say it’s 1:1.4! No surprise there then! Of course, as this is an NAO report, there’s a lot of things it doesn’t cover. What these bare figures don’t do is look at what would happen if we don’t build HS2. What would be the costs of the rail gridlock that would lead to, and how would we meet our targets to cut carbon emissions when we’d no loner have the means to get modal shift from road/air to rail? These are crucial matters, but not within the purview of the report. Neither will it mention that the OECD recommends that baseline infra investment is 5.5% of GDP annually for an economy with aspirations to growth. We have only spent this amount twice since WW2 leaving us woefully behind other developed (and developing) countries when it comes to infrastructure.

It doesn’t talk of the wider political aspects of building HS2 or the merits of doing so, such as the Governments aims of rebalancing the economy. That’s not the NAO’s job either – although that won’t stop some of the more bizarre claims and speculation from the pundits.

What we can see from the report is a sober assessment of where the HS2 project has got to so far and the challenges it faces over the next few years as it goes from design to (finally) construction. A decision to go-ahead will be made next month. The report assumes construction will begin in March 2020.

This won’t be the last report the NAO do on HS2. They’ll be keeping an eye of the project right through to completion when they’ll then look at the question of value for money. Their reports always make interesting reading as they’re authorititive and free of hyperbole or politicking. Now, watch how the media spins it…

A FAVOUR.
I have a small favour to ask. If you enjoy visiting this blog, please click on one (or two!) of the adverts that are displayed. The income from them helps me to cover some of the cost of running this blog. Thank you!

More Brexit bullshit

18 Sunday Mar 2018

Posted by Paul Bigland in Brexit, Economics, Jeremy Corbyn MP, Politics

≈ Leave a comment

Tags

Brexit, Economics, Jeremy Corbyn

Forget the furore over the “was is, wasn’t it doctored ?” picture of Jeremy Corbyn used on a Newsnight set, this one is real and it speaks volumes about the way both sides of the political spectrum are lying the public over the British public over Brexit.

This photo of Corbyn has been circulated on social media by his supporters today.

Corbyn

His ‘say’ on Brexit, really? So, how exactly is Corbyn (who supports the UK leaving the customs union and the single market) going to stop job losses in the North-East due to Brexit?

The plain truth is he can’t – and he knows it. He’s lying to people just as much as those arch Brexiteers, Rees-Mogg and David Davis, who still pretend there’s a ‘Brexit Bonus’ and that Unicorns really do exist. This slogan is just as hollow as Corbyn’s a “Brexit for Jobs” claim.

Let’s get away from the lies and look at some cold, hard truths. According to the Governments own analysis North East England will suffer a 16% hit to GDP in the event of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit. 16%! That makes the North-East the hardest hit of any UK region! You can find a report on the figures here from Sky news (I’m using Sky as no-one can use the excuse the news is ‘biased’ as it’s from a ‘lefty’ source).

It’s not as if Corbyn isn’t aware of this, just as he’s aware that the North-East relies heavily on Japanese companies like Nissan and Hitachi to provide jobs. The Japanese have been uncharacteristically blunt about Brexit, pointing out that leaving the Customs Union and Single market poses a serious risk to their companies profitability and thus the likelihood that they will up-sticks and move into mainland Europe. The Japanese have been warning of the consequences of Brexit for years. Here’s what they were saying back in 2016.

In February 2018, the Japanese Ambassador to Britain issued this new, clear warning.

Yet Corbyn still maintains the fiction of a “Brexit for Jobs” and poses with that totally dishonest frame to con people into thinking he’s some alternative to the Tory Brexit head-bangers when (in truth), he’s cut from the same cloth. It’s just dyed a different colour…

In May, people have a choice who to vote for and what message they want to send our politicians. Don’t be fooled into thinking that Corbyn’s Labour party will save us from Brexit. They won’t, so be careful who you vote for.

Crazy anti Hs2 campaigner of the week. No 16

01 Tuesday Dec 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Anti Hs2 mob, Crazy anti Hs2 campaigner of the week, Hs2, Uncategorized

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Anti Hs2 mob, Crazy anti Hs2 campaigner of the week, Economics, Hs2

Although the week has only just begun I think it’s going to be hard to beat this lunacy from the Twitter account of the Mid Cheshire anti Hs2 group.

Admittedly, they have a lot of form for spouting complete nonsense. After all, it was one of their members who claimed that the anti Hs2 campaign was bigger than the 1990s poll tax demonstrations (stop sniggering at the back!). I doubted they’d be able to top that but I have to say the anti Hs2 mob always seem to be able to exceed my expectations. Take a look at this..

Mid ches

So, there you have it. Don’t cure rail gridlock, don’t build a catalyst for massive regeneration in our major cities. Don’t create tens of thousands of jobs that will up-skill the workforce (who will then pay tax back to the government) – simply bung every ‘poor’ person in the UK £20,000 of taxpayers money, gratis – job done.

Quite what they’d been ingesting when they came up with this stunning idea is open to conjecture….

For some reason only a couple of other antis latched on to the idea, presumably because anyone with half a brain stopped and thought – “what the actual f***!”

With this level of intellect, grasp of economics and understanding of politics powering the anti Hs2 campaign, what could possibly go wrong?

Recent Posts

  • Asian adventure day 25. Kanchanaburi day 2.
  • Asian adventure day 24. Kanchanaburi day 1.
  • Asian adventure day 23. Bangkok day 6.
  • Asian adventure day 22. Bangkok day 5.
  • Asian adventure day 21. Bangkok day 4.

Recent Comments

Helen on Asian adventure day 24. Kancha…
Paul Bigland on Whatever happened to the anti…
James K on Whatever happened to the anti…
Paul Bigland on Whatever happened to the anti…
James K on Whatever happened to the anti…

Archives

  • February 2023
  • January 2023
  • December 2022
  • November 2022
  • October 2022
  • September 2022
  • August 2022
  • July 2022
  • June 2022
  • May 2022
  • April 2022
  • March 2022
  • February 2022
  • January 2022
  • December 2021
  • November 2021
  • October 2021
  • September 2021
  • August 2021
  • July 2021
  • June 2021
  • May 2021
  • April 2021
  • March 2021
  • February 2021
  • January 2021
  • December 2020
  • November 2020
  • October 2020
  • September 2020
  • August 2020
  • July 2020
  • June 2020
  • May 2020
  • April 2020
  • March 2020
  • February 2020
  • January 2020
  • December 2019
  • November 2019
  • October 2019
  • September 2019
  • August 2019
  • July 2019
  • June 2019
  • May 2019
  • April 2019
  • March 2019
  • February 2019
  • January 2019
  • December 2018
  • November 2018
  • October 2018
  • September 2018
  • August 2018
  • July 2018
  • June 2018
  • May 2018
  • April 2018
  • March 2018
  • February 2018
  • January 2018
  • December 2017
  • October 2017
  • September 2017
  • August 2017
  • July 2017
  • June 2017
  • April 2017
  • March 2017
  • February 2017
  • January 2017
  • December 2016
  • November 2016
  • October 2016
  • September 2016
  • July 2016
  • June 2016
  • May 2016
  • April 2016
  • March 2016
  • February 2016
  • January 2016
  • December 2015
  • November 2015
  • October 2015
  • September 2015
  • August 2015
  • July 2015
  • June 2015
  • May 2015
  • April 2015
  • March 2015
  • February 2015
  • January 2015
  • June 2013

Categories

  • 'Green' madness
  • 'Think Tanks'
  • 144e
  • 2005 London bombing
  • 2017 General election
  • 3 peaks by rail
  • 3 Peaks by ral
  • 51M
  • 7/7
  • Abandoned railways
  • Abu Dhabi
  • ACoRP
  • Adam Smith Institute
  • Adrian Quine
  • Advertising
  • Air Travel
  • Aircraft
  • Airports
  • Airshows
  • Allan Cook
  • Amsterdam
  • Andrea Leadsom MP
  • Andrew Gilligan
  • Andrew Haylen
  • Andy Burnham MP
  • Anti Hs2 mob
  • AONBs
  • Arambol
  • Architecture
  • Art
  • Australia
  • Bali
  • Bangkok
  • Bank holidays
  • Barrow Hill
  • Belgium
  • Bereavement
  • Berlin
  • Bigotry
  • Birmingham
  • Blists Hill
  • Blue passports
  • Boris Johnson MP
  • Brexit
  • Brighouse
  • Brighton
  • British Railways
  • British Railways (BR)
  • Byline media
  • Calder Valley
  • Canals
  • Carillion
  • Carolyne Culver
  • Censorship
  • Charities
  • Cheryl Gillan MP
  • Cheshire
  • China
  • Chris Packham
  • Claire Perry MP
  • Class 155
  • Class 313
  • Class 314s
  • Class 317
  • Class 320
  • Class 321
  • Class 365
  • Class 455
  • Class 456
  • Class 507
  • Class 508
  • Class 60s
  • Class 91
  • Climate Change
  • Communications
  • Community
  • Community rail
  • Community Rail Network
  • COP26
  • Corbynwatch
  • Coronavirus
  • Covid 19
  • CP5
  • Crap journalism
  • Crazy anti Hs2 campaigner of the week
  • Crazy kippers
  • Crewe Hub
  • Crossrail
  • Cuba
  • Cumbria
  • Customs
  • Cyberattacks
  • Cycle India
  • Cycling
  • Dawn
  • Democracy
  • Denmark
  • Derbyshire
  • Desiro City
  • Diary
  • Dispatches
  • Doha
  • Donald Trump
  • Doomed
  • Down memory lane
  • East Midlands Railway franchise
  • East Midlands Trains
  • Easter fairy stories
  • ECML
  • Economic illiteracy
  • Economics
  • election2015
  • Engineering
  • Environment
  • Essex
  • Eurostar
  • Euston
  • Extinction Rebellion
  • Fake News
  • Festivals
  • Film and TV
  • Flooding
  • Flora and Fauna
  • Food
  • Food and drink
  • Foot in mouth
  • Gardening
  • GBRf
  • General election
  • General election 2019
  • Georgetown
  • Germany
  • Glasgow
  • Glossop
  • GNGE
  • GNRP
  • Goa
  • Grand Central trains
  • Grant Shapps MP
  • Great Western Railway
  • Greater Anglia franchise
  • Greece
  • Green issues
  • Green madness
  • Green Party
  • Gt Missenden
  • GTR
  • Guido Fawkes
  • GWML
  • GWR franchise
  • Gwyll Jones
  • Halifax
  • Harvil Rd Hs2 protest
  • Harz railway
  • Heathrow 3rd runway
  • High Speed 1
  • High Speed UK
  • History
  • Hitachi
  • Hong Kong
  • House of Lords
  • HS North
  • Hs2
  • Hs2 Bow Group
  • Hs2 petitions
  • Hs2 Phase 2B
  • Hs2 to Crewe
  • Hs2aa
  • HS2Rebellion
  • HSUK
  • Huddersfield
  • Humberside
  • Humour
  • Hurricane Ophelia
  • Hypocrisy
  • I love my job
  • Imperial College London
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Infrarail
  • Innotrans
  • Internet
  • Iolo Williams
  • Ireland
  • Islamophobia
  • Jacob Rees Mogg
  • Jeremy Corbyn
  • Jeremy Corbyn MP
  • Jo Johnson MP
  • Joe Rukin
  • John McDonnell MP
  • John Poyntz
  • Johnathan Bartley
  • Journalism
  • Kanchanaburi
  • Kent
  • Kuala Lumpur
  • Labour election
  • Lancashire
  • Laos
  • Law and order
  • Lazy journalism
  • Leicestershire
  • Liam Halligan
  • libel
  • Lilian Greenwood MP
  • Liverpool
  • LNER
  • Local elections
  • Local elections 2018
  • Lockdown
  • London
  • Lord Berkeley
  • LRT
  • M62 motorway
  • Major Projects Authority
  • Malaysia
  • Manchester
  • Manchester Airport
  • Manchester Victoria
  • MAPA
  • Mark Keir
  • Marketing
  • Martin Tett
  • Melton Mowbray
  • Memory Lane
  • Merseyside
  • Michael Dugher MP
  • Michael Fabricant MP
  • Mid Cheshire against Hs2
  • Miscellany
  • Modern Railways
  • Monorails
  • Music
  • Musings
  • Mytholmroyd
  • Natalie Bennett
  • National Rail Awards
  • National Trust
  • Nepal
  • Network Rail
  • Never a dull life
  • New Economics Foundation
  • New trains
  • New Year
  • New York
  • New Zealand
  • NHS
  • Nigel Farage
  • Norfolk
  • Norland scarecrow festival
  • Northern Powerhouse
  • Northern Rail
  • Nostalgia
  • Nottingham
  • Obituaries
  • Old Oak Common
  • ORR
  • Ossett
  • Our cat, Jet
  • Oxfordshire
  • Pacers
  • Paris terror attack
  • Parliament
  • Pasenger Growth
  • Patrick McLouglin MP
  • Penny Gaines
  • Peter Jones
  • Peterborough
  • Photography
  • Photojournalism
  • Picture of the day
  • Poetry
  • Politics
  • Porterbrook
  • PR nightmares
  • Protest
  • Public Accounts Ctte
  • Pubs
  • rail ale
  • Rail electrification
  • Rail fares
  • Rail Investment
  • Rail Live 2021
  • Rail Live 2022
  • RAIL magazine
  • Rail Moderinsation
  • Rail PR
  • Railfreight
  • Railstaff awards
  • Railtex
  • Railway Benefit Fund (RBF)
  • Railways
  • Rant
  • Religion
  • RFEM
  • Richard Wellings
  • Ride India
  • Road accidents
  • Rolling blogs
  • ROSCOs
  • Royal Mail
  • Royal Wedding 2018
  • RSPB
  • Rugby Observer
  • Rushbearing
  • SAIP
  • Scores on the doors
  • Scotland
  • Scotrail
  • Sheffield
  • Shrewsbury
  • Shropshire
  • Siemens
  • Signalling
  • Silly season
  • Simon Heffer
  • Simon Jenkins
  • Singapore
  • Sleeper trains
  • Snail mail
  • Social media
  • South West Trains
  • Southport
  • Sowerby Bridge
  • Spectator magazine
  • Sri Lanka
  • St Pancras station
  • Stafford
  • Stamford
  • Station buffets
  • StopHs2
  • Surrey
  • Talgo
  • Teresa May
  • Terrorism
  • Tesla
  • Thailand
  • Thameslink
  • The 'Beast from the East'
  • The BBC
  • The Big 6
  • The Daily Express
  • The end of the line
  • The fog
  • The Grauniad
  • The Great Central railway
  • The Green Party
  • The Independent
  • The Moorcock Inn
  • The Piece Hall
  • The Railway Children
  • The Rodelblitz
  • The USA
  • The Woodland Trust
  • Tilford
  • Tony Allen
  • Torquay
  • Tourism
  • TPE
  • Traffic congestion
  • Trams
  • Trans-Pennine electrification
  • Transport
  • Transport for Wales (TfW)
  • Travel
  • Twilight years
  • Twitter
  • Twitter (and how not to use it)
  • UK
  • UK steel industry
  • UKIP
  • Uncategorized
  • Vandalism
  • Victoria Prentis MP
  • Virgin Trains
  • Virgin West Coast
  • Vivarail
  • Wales
  • Walking
  • Warwickshire
  • WCML
  • Weather
  • West Yorkshire
  • Wigan
  • Wildlife Trusts
  • Worcester
  • Work
  • World War 1
  • World War Two
  • Yorkshire
  • YorkshireStopHs2

Meta

  • Register
  • Log in
  • Entries feed
  • Comments feed
  • WordPress.com

Blog at WordPress.com.

  • Follow Following
    • Paul Bigland
    • Join 400 other followers
    • Already have a WordPress.com account? Log in now.
    • Paul Bigland
    • Customize
    • Follow Following
    • Sign up
    • Log in
    • Report this content
    • View site in Reader
    • Manage subscriptions
    • Collapse this bar
 

Loading Comments...