Tag Archives: StopHs2

The anti Hs2 campaign has shares in green ink.

16 Tuesday Feb 2016

Posted by in Bigotry, Hs2, Rant, StopHs2, Twitter (and how not to use it)

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Well, if they had any sense they would, but sense is the one thing noticeably absent from the anti Hs2 mobs social media campaign nowadays. It’s become the modern refuge for and version of the old green ink brigade! (here’s an explanation of the term for readers who may be unfamiliar with it).

In fact, it’s the green ink brigade who seem to be keeping the antis social media campaign (and I use that term very loosely) going.

More and more of the old campaigners have left the field nowadays. This is due to a combination of factors. One is that many of them have been bought out by Hs2 Ltd & moved on (metaphorically and literally). Another is that most sensible people have worked out that it’s futile. There was a noticeable drop off in their campaign after the Hs2 Hybrid Bill passed with a massive majority and another after last years general election when it was clear the political battle was lost.

As the pragmatists and rational folks have retired, the – how shall I put this? “eccentric” wing have taken taken centre stage. In a few cases they’ve been bolstered by folks who don’t just write in green but prefer the most vivid shades of the colour! They’re a mix of UKIP members, who bring their own particular brand of xenophobia, paranoia and poor education – and the genuinely bonkers. Folk who believe in any conspiracy theory going but think they’re the only one’s who really know the truth. It’s like an internet version of Bedlam, only without the restraints.

To say this leaves their campaign with a image problem is an understatement. If I was Hs2aa or any of the few intellectual Nimbys left, I’d be tearing my hair out at their behaviour as it’s utterly destroyed any credibility they might have claimed to have. It also makes it very easy for politicians to ignore them. When you see some of their tweets and Facebook comments, it’s not difficult to see why. So, here’s a selection of the anti Hs2 social media car crash. Enjoy!

hs2 nutter 5

Hs2 nutters 3

hs2 nutters 4

Hs2 nutters6

DD bonkers

liar MPs

Honey hs2

Meanwhile, over on the anti Hs2 facebrook groups;

hs2 altofts

Need I say more?

The petitions process ends, not with a bang – but a whimper…

09 Tuesday Feb 2016

Posted by in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Hs2 petitions, Hs2aa, StopHs2

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Last Thursday the House of Commons Hs2 Hybrid Bill Committee heard its last petition. At the close of events, Mr Strachan, one of Hs2 Ltd’s QC’s made this statement, which put the process into context;Strachan 1

Strachan 2

Yet, for all these remarkable numbers, the process ended with a whimper as the last two surviving anti Hs2 groups (Hs2aa and Stophs2) failed to make any impact with their final petitions.

Part of Hs2aa’s final ask was that Hs2 should have a 300kph speed limit imposed upon it. To justify this they used an ‘expert’ witness. Sadly for them this expert managed to make a fundamental error in his argument, asserting that existing high speed trains used in Germany, France & Japan all had top speeds of 300kph. Here’s a slide from his presentation.

hs2aa expert

The reality is very different. The Siemens Velaro E has a top speed of 350kph and the version used by Eurostar (the e320) will run at 320kph – the same as the Velaro D in Germany. Here’s a look at the Velaro family.

Alstom TGVs operate at between 300-320kph whilst the newer AGVs run at speeds up to 360kph.

The Japanese high speed fleets also operate at 320kph with the newer N700 capable of 330kph.

Oh, and that still leaves the Bombardier ETR 500 Frecciarossa (max speed 360kph) and the Spanish Talgo T350 (350kph). So, as you can see, the 300kph claim by Hs2aa’s “expert” is misleading nonsense. You can read about Europe’s top 10 high speed trains here.

Needless to say, Hs2aa’s QC had a hard time trying to sell these claims. You can watch the days proceedings here.

The final days hearings on Thursday weren’t any better. Joe Rukin presented StopHs2’s final comments and asks which were so poor that Hs2 Ltd’s QC didn’t even need to reply, pointing out that everything Rukin raised had been said before, so there was no point in wasting the Committee’s time responding!

Petitions done and dusted, the Committee have retired to compile their final report and recommendations, which may be available before the end of February. Expect the Committee to put the final nail in the coffin for antis claims that Hs2 should terminate at Old Oak Common not Euston as well as the idea that Hs2 should be tunnelled all the way under the Chilterns.

This leaves the anti Hs2 campaign with nothing else to do until the House of Lords petitioning process starts later in the year. This is a big problem for them as they’ve no way to keep their campaign going. It’s been losing momentum ever since the Hybrid Bill passed 2nd reading with such a stonking majority. There’s been nothing but bad news for them ever since and the lack of anything happening outside of social media means that many people have given up on the anti campaign.

To add to their woes the social media campaign’s floundering, badly. There’s hardly any activity from either of the two groups. Hs2aa have only tweeted 4 times in 2016. Their website’s been updated 6 times but most of that is the ‘news’ about their appearance at the Committee! Their Facebook page is equally bereft of real news, most of what appears is their tweets about “empty” trains!

StopHs2 are in just as poor a position. They’ve nothing going on so they’re reduced to recycling old stories. Their Facebook page is a joy to behold. The few people commenting (always the same few names) can’t understand why they’ve failed to stophs2 – although the nature of their remarks makes it obvious to outsiders! Twitter isn’t much better. They’re so bereft of ideas they’re now trying to get the Cubbington pear tree top of an EU vote, so they’ve been posting this in several languages;

tree

Quite how voting for a tree is meant to stop hs2 is a mystery, but I suppose they’ve got to keep the bloke bankrolling them thinking they’re still doing something!

In truth, the whole stophs2 Twitter campaign is becoming an embarrassment. Now that most sensible people have abandoned them the lunatics have taken over the asylum. It’s as mad as a box of frogs! Here’s a few examples from today.

nut 1

Nut 2

Nut 3

Nut 4

Is it any wonder sensible folks have given up on the anti Hs2 campaign when this is what it’s sunk to? How is this vacuous nonsense meant to persuade intelligent folk to support them? All it does is expose the fact their campaign’s a shambles.

I wonder how many more folks will desert it in the next few weeks before the Lords take up the reins & continue the progress of the Hs2 Bill into law?

Here’s a real Hs2 fact.

01 Monday Feb 2016

Posted by in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Rail Investment, StopHs2, Transport

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This week sees the final sessions of the Hs2 Hybrid Bill petitioning in the House of Commons. Despite all the anti Hs2 mobs bluff and bluster they failed to stop the project by bogging it down with petitions. In fact, the Hs2 Committee have sat for less time than the Crossrail Committee!

The Crossrail petitioning process lasted from 13th December 2005 until the 18th October 2007 – over 22 months. In contrast, the Hs2 committee will have sat from the 10th June 2014 until the 3rd February 2016 – less than 19 months.

It’s another abject failure by hs2 antis who are now trying to furiously back-pedal on their claims they ever thought they could Stophs2 with petitions. Here’s a classic example..

Sarbutts petition crap

If anyone else can supply other examples of their ridiculous claims I’ll be happy to add them.

Here’s who is appearing when in the final week.

 

 

The bell tolls for the anti Hs2 campaign…

22 Friday Jan 2016

Posted by in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, StopHs2

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Here’s the first analysis of 2016 that looks at the state of play with the anti Hs2 campaign. To be honest I doubt there will be many more of them as their campaign’s falling apart even faster than I thought. 2015 ended badly for them and the trend has got even worse in 2016. How much longer they can pretend they still have a credible campaign is very much open to question.

They only have two campaign groups left in 2016. Stophs2 and Hs2aa. The latter seems to be a group in name only nowadays. Apart from a couple of desultory tweets showing ‘empty’ West Coast trains they’ve done nothing since December 7th 2015. Hs2aa remain totally silent about their last ditch legal appeal to the UN which was due to be considered in December. This suggests it’s not gone well. Meanwhile, the Hs2aa Directors seem to have adopted the line of “every man for himself” by abandoning any coherent campaign and represent their own self-interests at the Hs2 Petitioning Committee instead. This isn’t really surprising as their campaign has nowhere to go. They’ve exhausted the legal options, they’ve failed to make any political impact and there’s nothing else they can do apart from pray they can somehow influence the Lords when the Hs2 bill reaches them (if they last that long). It’s a forlorn hope.

The news from Stophs2 is equally dire. The question really has to be asked now – what’s the point of Stophs2? They have no campaign programme away from social media and no new strategy. There’s also signs that the people they’ve been cruelly hoodwinking for so long (the folk who are genuinely affected by Hs2 as they live on the route) are abandoning them. Joe Rukin was meant to be representing several such folk at the Hs2 Committee hearings. The latest list shows that instead, these people have decided to represent themselves. This effectively puts Joe out of a job as that was his last real reason to exist other than being a ‘rent a quote’ for the dwindling number of media outlets who still pay Stophs2 any attention. They have nothing going on away from social media, there’s no demonstrations, rallies or events planned. In fact, their calendar is bare.

The lack of anything happening in the real world has left the anti Hs2 mob increasingly reliant on social media to keep any pretence of a campaign going, so let’s have a look at the ‘scores on the doors’. I now have a whole year of data on their Facebook and Twitter campaign’s to compare and the results are appalling, especially when you consider that not all followers are supporters (many are simply there to keep an eye on them) and the fact the UK electorate consists of some 46 million plus souls. How many are the anti Hs2 campaign reaching? A tiny, tiny fraction…

Anti Hs2 scores Jan 2016

So, in 12 months Stophs2 have managed to reach just over 500 more folk on Facebook and less than 500 on Twitter! Hs2aa’s figures are even more dire. 300 odd on Twitter, and an absolutely pathetic 14 on Facebook! I’ve left in 51m (who’ve ceased to exist) and former AGHAST Comms Director Deanne Dukhan as a comparator.The irony here is that Deanne has managed to boost her following by over 68% by NOT Tweeting about Hs2

To pile on more woes, the StopHs2 campaign’s managed to shoot itself in both feet with a blunderbuss by crazily trotting out another petition. One of their campaign’s trademarks is their stubborn refusal to abandon the same tired & failed tactics they’ve been using since the beginning. Personally I believe this is because they genuinely haven’t got a clue what else to do. The “spend Hs2 money on flood protection” petition has been a tactical disaster for them as all it’s done is highlight their lack of countrywide support whilst exposing the fact they really are a bunch of Nimbys! Around 50% of all signatures come from constituencies on the Hs2 route. The only constituency that’s got over a 1000 is (surprise, surprise) in the Chilterns! You can see a full breakdown in this blog. Needless to say, the petition hasn’t got a snowball’s chance in hell of reaching 100,000, it’s not even getting 75 signatures a day, never mind the minimum 549 it needed. It’s another in their long list of failures.

As if that wasn’t bad enough, the parliamentary campaign is going from bad to worse. Back in 2015 Joe Rukin was boasting of how many folks had petitioned against Additional Provision 4 (AP4) of the HS2 bill (a paltry 122). He soon had to eat his works when Locus Standi challenges were upheld against the majority of them. Now the final additional provision (AP5) is in. 22 have petitioned on it but there are Locus challenges against 13 of them! This means that the Petitioning Committee will be winding up very soon, allowing the Hybrid Bill to move on to the next stage. If you want to follow the Hs2 parliamentary process in detail, follow @HS2Parliament on Twitter or visit their website.  Here’s the Hs2 Ctte programme as far as the 3rd February.

Trying to delay the Hs2 bill with petitions was a central plank of the anti Hs2 campaign. Their hope was this would either make the project too expensive or delay in long enough a new Government might have seconds thought and scrap the project. In the early days antis were cock a hoop as they thought the fact the 1100 plus petitions submitted would do the trick. As usual, they miscalculated – badly. The Hybrid Bill Committee have proven to be firm but fair – and no pushover.

The total lack of success on the part of the anti Hs2 campaign has obviously had an effect on its supporters. Sick of being lied to by a few who still crazily insist they can stop Hs2, their sensible supporters are abandoning them. Here’s the sentiment expressed by a recent poster on the StopHs2 Facebook page.

give up

This steady ebbing of support is affecting their campaign in several ways. It’s leaving them increasingly skint and it’s leaving the lunatics in charge of the (social media) asylum. Most of the anti Hs2 Tweeters are what can only be described as “special people”. They’re the Walter Mitty’s who live in a fantasy world. Here’s a classic example from one Nicholas Batty

Batty BS

“strength to strength?” Does anyone genuinely believe this guff? Even arch fantasist Batty himself?

At the risk of falling foul of Godwin’s law, they remind me of the last days in Hitler’s bunker. They’re still pretending they have troops to muster, or that an imaginary cavalry is out there who will ride to their rescue at the 11th hour (that was meant to be UKIP at the general election, but we all know what happened there!). To see how bonkers they’ve become on only has to look at the #hs2 hashtag on Twitter, or peruse the StopHs2 Facebook page . (Don’t bother with Hs2aa’s. Like their website, it hasn’t been updated since December 7th!). Quite how a few rather hysterical and out of touch people ranting on social media is meant to convince anyone to join their campaign is a complete mystery.

All the evidence points to the Stophs2 campaign being on the verge of collapse. In many ways it already has as it’s no credibility or capability left. It wouldn’t be unfair to say that now, it’s all over bar the shouting. All that’s left is for the funder(s) to finally pull the plug on StopHs2 and Hs2aa. Will the last person left please turn out the lights…

The anti Hs2 mob shoot themselves in the foot again!

10 Sunday Jan 2016

Posted by in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Hs2 petitions, StopHs2

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For years the StopHs2 campaign has pretended that it’s not really just a bunch of nimbys who live along the route, it’s really a national campaign of concerned citizens (-honest, guv). We’ve been expected to turn a blind eye to the fact that there’s not a single StopHs2 “action” group anywhere – except for those on the route.

It was never going to wash and now the Stophs2 campaign’s latest attempt at a petition has provided the evidence in cold, hard numbers.

The poll in question wants to see the Hs2 budget diverted to flood defences. Now, you might expect the people who are calling for this to be living in flood affected areas. Not a bit of it. The beauty of the new Government petitions page is that it supplies a map of all the UK parliamentary constituencies with the individual petition scores for each one.

Here’s a copy of the results along the Hs2 route from London to just South of Birmingham.

Chiltern nimby nos 10.1.16.

Isn’t it a remarkable co-incidence that the folks who most want to see Hs2 money spent on flood barriers live on the Hs2 route and away from any flooding?

Here’s another map, this time covering the flood hit areas of Lancashire and Yorkshire.

nw nimbys 10.1.16

The two areas with the highest number of signatories just ‘happen’ to be on the Hs2 route. In contrast, the Calderdale constituency (one of the most badly hit by floods) has flooded the petition with a massive 3 votes…

I predicted that this petition would backfire on Hs2 anti’s as it would expose how little support they had. In fact, it’s done more by exposing that the Chilterns are by far the biggest group in the Stophs2 campaign, dwarfing all others. It’s also revealed that some of the Phase 2 anti Hs2 groups are far, far weaker in comparison. Much of the phase 2 route doesn’t even show up as the number signing the petition are no greater than the surrounding areas!

14th January update.

Here’s an updated map showing the position now their petition has hit 6165 signatures (with their average dropping by the day now).

Nimbys 14 jan 16

Here’s another chart that puts those 6165 votes into perspective. 2888 come from a mere 16 out of 650 constituencies, and guess what – they’re all on the Hs2 route!

Flood poll stats 14 jan

So, 46.85% of the entire votes cast come from those 16 constituencies! If you added all the others that Hs2 touches what’s the bet that the figure will be way over half? There is another interesting tale the petition tells too – which is how weak the Stophs2 campaign is away from the Chilterns & Phase 1. Look at the numbers in areas like Staffordshire or Mid Cheshire, they’re tiny.

This is why the flood defences vs Hs2 petition does nothing but shoot the anti Hs2 campaign in the foot. The numbers don’t lie – even if they do…

UPDATE (24th January)

Now that this petition is clearly failing (the past week has seen signatures down into double figures with the running total standing at 6848) I thought it would be interesting to update the phase 1 map.

Nimby map 24.1.16.

This shows that most of the votes are still centred on the Hs2 route. Only one constituency out of 650 has more than 1000 signatures. It’s that one well known for flooding. err – Amersham & Chesham? The proof that the core of the Stophs2 campaign is Chiltern Nimby based is incontrovertible and it’s been supplied by the Stophs2 campaign itself – as has the evidence of how weak they are on phase 2 of Hs2. Remember these numbers have been reached after the stophs2 campaign (and its individual supporters) have been frantically puffing the petition across all their websites & social media outlets – yet this is the best they can do…

UPDATE 2 (10th February).

I thought it would be interesting to have another quick crunch of the numbers on this petition, so here they are. The total now stands at 7445 votes – a miserable failure. The petition itself is of no interest – but who signed from where is.

48.35% of signatures come from just 16 out of the 650 constituencies. All those 16 are on the Hs2 route! Only one has more than 1000 signatures – the anti Hs2 nimby stronghold of Chesham & Amersham with 1219! (16.37%). Here’s the full 16.

Hs2 floods

This blows apart various anti hs2 claims. One is that they’re a national campaign – it’s clear the vast majority of their support is not only route based but is concentrated on the Phase 1 route in the Chilterns. The other observation is that the anti Hs2 campaign has very little support along the phase 2 routes to Manchester & Leeds. These figures make depressing reading for antis as they show that once Phase 1 goes ahead, the anti Hs2 campaign will collapse as the two campaigning groups (Stophs2 & Hs2aa) are run  by (and mostly funded from) phase 1 residents.

 

2015 ends with a whimper for the stop Hs2 campaign.

31 Thursday Dec 2015

Posted by in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, StopHs2, Uncategorized

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I can’t imagine it’s going to be the sound of party poppers & champagne corks we’ll be hearing from the anti Hs2 campaign offices today, because (let’s face it) they’ve had a bloody awful year and next year will only be worse. 2016 will see the end of their campaign as the phase 1 Hybrid Bill will complete its journey through Parliament and gain Royal Assent. After that, they have nowhere left to turn. All the major political parties remain solidly behind the project and by the time of the next general election in 2020 Hs2 will have been under construction for nearly 3 years.

The signs that the anti Hs2 campaign was collapsing have been evident for some time. They failed to bog down progress of the Hybrid Bill, then were dealt a huge blow by the result of the General Election – which laid bare the fact their political clout was negligible. In the latter part of the year Bucks Country Council Leader Martin Tett made it clear the anti Hs2 51M alliance of local council’s was redundant. Not that 51m will be missed. Their website hadn’t been updated since June 2011 and they only managed 16 Tweets through the whole of 2015!

This left just two main groups opposing Hs2 – Kenilworth based StopHs2 and the Highspeed 2 Action Alliance (Hs2aa) in the Chilterns. Many of the smaller ‘action’ groups that came under the Hs2aa banner had already faded away. Now it seems its HS2aa’s turn. Nothing has been seen or heard from them since December 7th – which suggests their legal case at the UN which was heard just before Xmas hasn’t gone well…

Having retreated to be almost a purely social media based campaign, things aren’t going well there either. Here’s the final “scores on the doors” for 2015. They show a campaign that’s not only stalled but has actually gone into reverse again in some cases.

stats 4

I won’t bore you with the usual caveats as I’m sure you know them off by heart now. The only person who is doing well is AGAHST’s former Comm’s person Deanne Dukhan. The irony is, she’s done it by not tweeting about Hs2!

The only question now seems to be how long the remaining anti hs2 groups can hang on into 2016. Will StopHs2’s financier (Warks businessman Joe Elliott) finally pull the plug? After all, once the Parliamentary process is finished, what’s the point of the StopHs2 campaign?

The anti Hs2 mobs crocodile tears over flooding

27 Sunday Dec 2015

Posted by in Anti Hs2 mob, Flooding, Hs2

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As the North of England & parts of Wales count the costs of the Boxing day floods the anti Hs2 mobs cynicism levels are full to overflowing.

Desperate for any opportunity to try & revive their dying campaign they’re cynically exploiting the floods to call for Hs2 money to be diverted to flood defences – just like they did last time (and the time before that). It seems opposition to Hs2 has a fantastic affect on people’s intellect: Not only does it automatically make you a rail expert – it also makes you  flood experts and a whiz at economics!

My local town (Sowerby Bridge) is one of those that’s been badly affected. It’s flooded for the first time since 1968. What the anti Hs2 geniuses will never understand is expensive flood defences wouldn’t have make the slightest bit of difference as such an unusual event couldn’t have been predicted. What would make a difference is something that would cost very little money – a change of Government land use policy. These interesting articles from George Monbiot explain the issues. It’s not about turning our rivers and streams into sterile storm drains & scarring our landscape – it’s preventing the bloody floodwater from getting to them in such catastrophic quantities!

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/17/farmers-uk-flood-maize-soil-protection

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/13/flooding-public-spending-britain-europe-policies-homes

Of course, none of this suits the anti Hs2 mobs agenda, so it will be ignored. Then again, so will their ridiculous either/or flood defences or Hs2 comparisons. Wiser heads have always prevailed when it comes to building Hs2.

UPDATE;

A couple of days on and the anti Hs2 mob have got worse. This tweet is pretty typical.

Cutler floods

Hs2 would be “underwater” eh? No. It’s complete tosh. The area in question is the Aire Valley flood plain. Hs2 will cross it on a couple of viaducts, the longest of which will be 2335m long! You can find the detailed plans here.

As usual, the anti Hs2 mob never let the facts get in the way…

 

It’s the final countdown…

20 Sunday Dec 2015

Posted by in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2 petitions, Hs2aa, StopHs2

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Well, of 2015 anyway – although I doubt I’ll be crunching the anti Hs2 campaign’s numbers for too much of 2016 as they’re so awful!

So, without further ado, here’s the ‘scores on the doors’ – 11 months data on the antis social media campaign.

anti Hs2 stats Dec 2015

The statistics carry the standard caveat: Not everyone following is a supporter, many are there just to keep an eye on them. Also, the increases have to be seen in the context of coming from a very low base to start with. To put StopHs2’s 4547 Twitter followers in context – In December 2014 there were 45,325,078 registered voters in the UK! The anti Hs2 groups penetration is tiny & their following minute.

Another interesting fact is that, despite StopHs2 trying to bolster their numbers in recent months (this blog has obviously stung them) – their numbers are starting to fall back again & the others are doing just as bad.

Their social media campaign’s doing little other than exposing their weaknesses now more & more people are giving up on it. What it’s highlighting is their campaign is increasingly relying on their fruitcake elements to keep it alive. Here’s some examples from first Twitter, then Facebook:

sensible

jones 1

out of tweet

fb2

Does any of this sound like people who’re going to achieve the one thing they need – political backing? Of course not, which is why their campaign’s dying.

Two of their organisations (AGAHST and 51M) are already history and the  remaining two,  StopHs2 and Hs2aa are looking increasing desperate and rocky. Hs2aa have had a lousy few months. They’re running out of money to fund themselves so, as a consequence they’re reining in their minimal activities even more. Their Twitter campaign is nothing better than a desultory retweeting service that hasn’t seen any activity since December 7th. Neither has their website – other then regularly being taken down by hackers. To make matters worse, positive news on their last legal action that was due to be heard this week seems to be rather thin on the ground…

In truth Hs2aa only seem to have one aim now – and that’s to fight a rearguard action at the petitioning committee to try & secure a full length tunnel under their heartland – the Chilterns. It’s a forlorn hope.

Meanwhile, StopHs2 are doing – nothing! Joe Rukin has had a couple of turns booked at the petitioning Committee in January and that’s it. Talking of the petitioning Committee – they’ve really gone into overdrive with the intent of having everything wound up early in the new year. Just have a look at their programme for January.

There’s a few things of interest here. One is the number of locus standi challenges, the other is the number of petitioners who fail to turn up to the have their petitions heard. Clearly, many of the frivolous ones have  realised the game is up. This is good for two reasons. It’s speeding up the process and it’s freeing time for those who have a genuine grievance.

All of this means the anti Hs2 campaign’s living on borrowed time. There’s no earthly way they can achieve their aim without political support, which they’ve failed to gain. Meanwhile, the Hs2 project continues to gather momentum and support.

The only question now is which will be the next group to collapse. Hs2aa or Stophs2?

Heathrow shows the anti Hs2 campaign’s toothless

11 Friday Dec 2015

Posted by in Anti Hs2 mob, Heathrow 3rd runway, Hs2, Hs2aa, StopHs2

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Today’s announcement that a decision on a 3rd runway at Heathrow has been postponed should leave anti Hs2 campaigners with their heads in their hands. Why? Because it highlights just how inconsequential they are and how ineffective they’ve been.

The Heathrow postponement is widely seen as a political maneuver to avoid the Tories being embarrassed during the London mayoral elections in May as their candidate, Zac Goldsmith, is an implacable opponent of Heathrow expansion.

In contrast, the Tories (and all the other parties for that matter) have shown no real concern that Hs2 would have politically adverse affects. This is a huge blow for the the anti Hs2 mob as for years they’ve  pretended the high speed line is a political hot potato. What’s interesting is that Heathrow is essentially a local London/South-East issue whilst Hs2 affects much more of the UK and far more constituencies.

As Hs2 isn’t seen as a negative political issue one can only wonder how much longer the anti Hs2 campaign can stagger on for. They’ve been on the back-foot ever since the Hybrid Bill passed with such a stonking majority, the general election result compounded their woes and they’ve had no good news for years. There’s none in the offing.

I wonder how much longer their remaining groups (StopHs2 and Hs2aa)  will last into 2016? Joe Rukin’s laughable claim that there were ‘reasons to be cheerful‘ looks increasingly likely to be his epithet.

 

A terrible time for the anti Hs2 campaign.

28 Saturday Nov 2015

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It’s that regular time of month when I take a snapshot of the state of the anti Hs2 campaign and (for them) the news just gets worse. Let’s kick off with the usual analysis of their performance across social media – which they’ve become increasingly reliant upon as their activist base declines.

anti scores

There’s now 9 months of data to analyse and what it shows is that, despite evidence that they’ve been stung into trying to improve the numbers – they’re still getting nowhere fast.

First, remember the usual caveat, not all followers are supporters, many are simply there to keep an eye on what they’re up to. Also, many of their Twitter followers are fake accounts or sock puppets so Twitter is a very poor gauge of real support. Plus, a group of people all ranting to each other don’t really have an impact outside of their own small circle. Facebook is even more insular. It’s good for getting your message out to people who like your pages, but that means you’re only really preaching to the converted. It’s also a double-edged sword as the Stophs2 Facebook page shows. On it you can see a small group of hopelessly confused people who really can’t understand why no-one is actually listening to them, although anyone looking in can easily see why. Here’s a few recent examples;

fb1

fb2

Crunching the numbers shows their Facebook campaign is moribund with only a 5.33% increase for Stophs2 and a mere 0.74% for Hs2aa. What’s even worse is the increases are from a tiny base! As for 51M – they’ve gone backwards, but as their FB page was last updated in June 2011 & they’ve effectively ceased to exist it’s moot.

Over on Twitter things aren’t much better. The two surviving groups (stophs2 & Hs2aa) are still under 5,000 followers apiece so a 10% increase in 9 months means little. Of course, many of these followers will be the same people, which limits their spread even more. The great irony in the figures is the only person with a decent increase is the former Communications Director of another defunct group (AGAHST) who’s achieved her popularity by tweeting about anything other than Hs2! Their Twitter campaign is increasingly farcical. It’s mostly in the hands of isolated individual who try to to keep it going. The ludicrous stuff they tweet is mostly outright bonkers or offensive, it certainly won’t convert the people they need to stop Hs2 – which makes it all the more counterproductive. This is starting to tell as the numbers of retweets their nonsense gets is steadily declining.

Another sign of the anti Hs2 campaign’s decline is that the Hs2aa website is STILL blocked by virus protection software some three and a half weeks after I first blogged about it.

Meanwhile, in the real world,things are even worse. Their campaign’s had a truly awful month…

The stophs2 campaign held a secret gathering of countrywide groups that was nothing short of an embarrassment. You can read about it here. All it achieved was to show how much the strength of their campaign has declined in the past couple of years. Their woes were compounded when the Chancellor, George Osborne presented his budget review. Not only did this expose their claims that hs2 would divert money from improvements to the existing rail network, it also skewered their ridiculous claims for how much Hs2 will cost as the budget was updated to 2015 prices. You can read about that here.

Budget day also exposed a growing schism between the two remaining anti Hs2 groups. Whilst Stophs2 have been trying to spin the costs of Hs2 as “spiralling” Hs2aa members were distinctly off-message at the Hybrid Bill petitions! Hs2aa’s Hilary Wharf was part of a group that was arguing the Chilterns could have a fully bored tunnel as tunnelling costs often turned out to be lower than official estimates!  You can see their evidence to the Committee here.

So, where does this leave their campaign? Up shit creek really…

They’ve utterly failed to make any political breakthrough. Their activist base is steadily declining and their stability of the two remaining groups in looking increasingly rocky. Meanwhile, the Government and Hs2 Ltd are  pressing ahead with the project whilst the Hybrid Bill Committee are steaming ahead with the petitioning process – all of which eats further into the Stophs2 activist base.

Somehow I don’t think there’s going to be much cheer at the Stophs2 Christmas party, which is going to be their last….