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Paul Bigland

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What image is the UK projecting to the world?

17 Tuesday Apr 2018

Posted by Paul Bigland in Bigotry, Brexit, Politics

≈ 5 Comments

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Bigotry, Brexit, Politics

The more I read about the way the Government and Home Office are handling the ‘Windrush scandal’ surrounding the children of Commonwealth citizens that came to Britain In the 1960s, the more I despair of this country’s reputation.  Channel 4 news have been highlighting the problem since January. This report is (quite frankly) disgusting.

People who’ve lived here for decades and thought they had the absolute right to do so are being treated appallingly. Some may even have been deported illegally, the Home Office doesn’t know and can’t be bothered to find out as it would cost too much money!

This is only part of the problem. The other part is the plight of the EU citizens caught in limbo following the Brexit referendum. There’s about 3.5 million of them. They’ve no idea what the future holds for them as no-one has a clue what the outcome of negotiations will be. Many are already leaving due to the uncertainty and the increasing hostility towards them, not just from ordinary people but authorities like the Home Office, which by any reasonable take seems at best incompetent and at worst, to be pursuing a deliberate policy of intimidation.

We shouldn’t be surprised really, who was the Home Secretary at the time policy was changed and the poisonous atmosphere towards people from other shores began to manifest itself? Step forward our current Prime Minister, Teresa May. Her culpability is explained in this very good comment piece in the London Evening Standard, where former Chancellor George Osborne is enjoying the opportunity to settle a few old scores!

Of course, all of these problems aren’t just reported in the UK media, they’re reported around the world. Teresa May’s stupid refusal to meet Caribbean heads of state to discuss the matter has been reported too – as was her climb down and apology. But it’s too late, the damage to the UK’s reputation’s been done. It’s not just the media that’s spreading the word either. Every person who’s returned to their country of origin after suffering bigotry and hostility will be telling people too. Our reputation as a decent, tolerant, welcoming country is being trashed. What was our national broadcasters response to all this? On Saturday it broadcast (in full, for the first time) Enoch Powell’s infamous ‘Rivers of blood’ speech (despite widespread criticism) making matters worse, not better. Bigotry and intolerance is fashionable again.

It makes me so, so angry.

The situation’s not going to get any better. The bigots are in charge now, both on the streets and in Government. Brexit will continue to make things worse as the shambles will continue – with the added attraction of the scandal of Cambridge Analytica, UKIP and the Leave campaign ‘buying’ the referendum result.

Later, after writing this, came the latest revelation. That the Home Office (under Teresa May) destroyed the landing cards of 1000s of Windrush arrivals that had been kept safe for decades. Then, when people enquired, told them that no official records of their arrival existed! No, they wouldn’t – you went and bloody destroyed them!

I fear for the future of my country. What on earth have we become?

Sunday thoughts

25 Sunday Mar 2018

Posted by Paul Bigland in Brexit, Politics

≈ 1 Comment

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Brexit, Politics

Looking on the bright side, the clocks have changed, the days are getting longer and warmer and the there’s a distinct feeling of spring in the air. I’m looking forward to being able to get out and about more and there’s some great assignments to look forward to over the course of the year.

On the less than bright side, there’s still the long-running Brexitshambles, which seems to get even more desperately stupid by the day. Despite the claims in some newspapers about how negotiations with the EU are ‘progressing’ it’s clear to anyone who pays any attention to the details that all the Government’s done is kick the can further down the road. There’s absolutely no agreement on the issues that really matter (like the Northern Ireland border) and we’re running out of time as the can goes flying again.

Meanwhile, just when we need an opposition party worthy of the name, Corbyn and Co manage to screw things up yet again. His sacking of Owen Smith for speaking out on a new Brexit referendum) was incredibly inept – and duplicitous. Of course, Corbynistas have formed their wagons into a circle around their ‘Golden Boy’ but from the comments I’m seeing across social media it’s obvious that many people who oppose Brexit but reluctantly supported Corbyn are exasperated and the scales are dropping from their eyes. Corbyn’s not part of the solution, he’s part of the problem. The scale of that problem has been made clearer by an interview that Labour’s Sir Keir Starmer gave to the Guardian. In it he sees the future of the party as more important than the country under the headline “We cannot allow Labour to break apart over Brexit”. Actually Keir, if it’s a choice between stopping Brexit or the Labour party, then it’s a no-brainer. Your party has proved to be utterly inept when it comes to providing leadership on the most important political and economic crisis to face this country since the second world war. Instead, you’ve been busy playing party politics and deceiving people. I thought Teresa May’s ‘Brexit means Brexit’ was the most vapid political slogan of recent decades, but Corbyn’s ‘jobs first Brexit’ is in the same class. It’s just another lie. There can be no ‘jobs first’ Brexit. No political party has a God-given right to exist (as UKIP has found out!). You are the servants, not the masters and you’d do well to remember that. Sadly, both main parties have put their good ahead of the nation’s. The Tories are equally culpable here.

Meanwhile, whilst Labour have dug themselves another hole and Corbyn is on the rack about anti-Semitism (again). Her majesty’s opposition are leaving the Government and the Brexit campaigners to escape scrutiny over the latest allegations surrounding Cambridge Analytica, the vote Leave campaign and the accusations that the whole campaign was void due to dirty money being channelled to fund it (link).

If we had a decent opposition worth it’s name they should be flaying the Government alive over this, but as team Corbyn actually want Brexit, they’re taking their foot off the gas as it could all be a little bit awkward.

What makes me laugh is the way Brexit supporters, many of whom used the excuse that we needed to leave the EU because it was ‘undemocratic’ are either completely silent about the allegations that the Brexit referendum was bought and subverted, or even attack those who’re exposing the story. After all, what could be more undemocratic than someone buying the result of the referendum? Talk about double-standards…

Thank God for the Guardian and Channel 4 news, as much of the rest of the media seems more intent on keeping quiet about some of these things. The BBC especially so. I’ve never bought into the argument of BBC bias before now but there’s been too much evidence emerging over the past few years that suggests not all is what it should be. The ‘walls of gammon’ (angry, elderly Brexit supporting white men) who always get to appear on Question Time, the fact Nigel Farage seemed almost a permanent fixture on the show. The revelations that the programmes ‘audience producer’ was anything but impartial and was found to be sharing Britain First posts on Facebook (links here and here) did nothing but re-inforce that feeling.

Now we find the BBC making a poor job of reporting on the Anti Brexit marches around the country yesterday. It’s not surprising that people are getting worried that the country seems to be in thrall to a small but hugely influential bunch of right-wingers at the moment. I hate to draw parallels with 1930’s Germany, but the way some sections of the media are acting, throwing around accusations of ‘betrayal’ and labelling people ‘traitors’ I can’t help but wonder…

Is the country going to sleepwalk into the looming brexitshambles? I’m beginning to think it might. Many people are still woefully ignorant of what’s around the corner and we have large sections of the media devoted to keeping them that way.

Depressing times…

But, it’s not too late. There’s no giving up and the local elections in May are an ideal opportunity for those of us who’re fighting the Brexitshambles to send a loud message by refusing to vote for the party’s that support Brexit. If Labour gets a bloody nose at the polls because people switch their votes to parties who oppose Brexit (such as the Lib-Dems and Greens) we may yet find that a few more Labour MPs rediscover their backbones. Never say never…

More Brexit bullshit

18 Sunday Mar 2018

Posted by Paul Bigland in Brexit, Economics, Jeremy Corbyn MP, Politics

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Brexit, Economics, Jeremy Corbyn

Forget the furore over the “was is, wasn’t it doctored ?” picture of Jeremy Corbyn used on a Newsnight set, this one is real and it speaks volumes about the way both sides of the political spectrum are lying the public over the British public over Brexit.

This photo of Corbyn has been circulated on social media by his supporters today.

Corbyn

His ‘say’ on Brexit, really? So, how exactly is Corbyn (who supports the UK leaving the customs union and the single market) going to stop job losses in the North-East due to Brexit?

The plain truth is he can’t – and he knows it. He’s lying to people just as much as those arch Brexiteers, Rees-Mogg and David Davis, who still pretend there’s a ‘Brexit Bonus’ and that Unicorns really do exist. This slogan is just as hollow as Corbyn’s a “Brexit for Jobs” claim.

Let’s get away from the lies and look at some cold, hard truths. According to the Governments own analysis North East England will suffer a 16% hit to GDP in the event of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit. 16%! That makes the North-East the hardest hit of any UK region! You can find a report on the figures here from Sky news (I’m using Sky as no-one can use the excuse the news is ‘biased’ as it’s from a ‘lefty’ source).

It’s not as if Corbyn isn’t aware of this, just as he’s aware that the North-East relies heavily on Japanese companies like Nissan and Hitachi to provide jobs. The Japanese have been uncharacteristically blunt about Brexit, pointing out that leaving the Customs Union and Single market poses a serious risk to their companies profitability and thus the likelihood that they will up-sticks and move into mainland Europe. The Japanese have been warning of the consequences of Brexit for years. Here’s what they were saying back in 2016.

In February 2018, the Japanese Ambassador to Britain issued this new, clear warning.

Yet Corbyn still maintains the fiction of a “Brexit for Jobs” and poses with that totally dishonest frame to con people into thinking he’s some alternative to the Tory Brexit head-bangers when (in truth), he’s cut from the same cloth. It’s just dyed a different colour…

In May, people have a choice who to vote for and what message they want to send our politicians. Don’t be fooled into thinking that Corbyn’s Labour party will save us from Brexit. They won’t, so be careful who you vote for.

Brexitshambles…

17 Saturday Feb 2018

Posted by Paul Bigland in Brexit, Politics

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Brexit, Politics

Sorry for the break in blogging these past few days, I’ve been caught up with family stuff, work and cycle-training (more on which in the blog to follow)…

Today’s already been busy as we’ve picked up the ‘new’ car. Well, it’s new to us anyway!It’s an 11 month old Honda Civic that we’ve exchanged for our older 2014 model. Those three years have seen several refinements in the design of these Swindon made cars, the results of which mean it’s more economical and comfortable. Dawn loves driving it, which is just as well as I can’t: I don’t drive!

Being a passenger on the way home gave me time to think about what the future may hold for Honda’s Swindon plant because of the shambles that is Brexit. As things stand at the minute it’s looking increasingly likely that the price of new cars will rise by 10% and car plants like Swindon could face a very uncertain future. The Japanese have made it very clear that if the UK does leave the Customs Union and Single Market, leaving businesses unprofitable, they’ll be taking their businesses elsewhere. (link).

The problem is, our politicians aren’t listening. This week we’ve had a typically shambolic speech from Boris Johnson. It was lightweight, full of platitudes but absolutely devoid of any real content. We need answers about the Irish border, instead we got organic carrots. We needed to know what’s happening with the customs union, instead we got a sniggering reference to British sex-tourism in Thailand (link). It was cringe-making. The full text of the speech can be found here. Our politicians have become clowns, the problem is, the joke’s on us…

Now we have Teresa May visiting Germany, where the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel had to point out that she’s still none the wiser as to what it is the UK Government actually expects from Brexit (link). She’s not alone. It’s clear our Government has no idea either! Yet the clock is ticking ever louder. Businesses can hear it, many of us can hear it – but May’s government appears deaf. Mind you, Labour need new batteries in Corbyn’s hearing aid too!

I try to laugh, but in truth I’m angry – very angry, at the way the UK’s reputation’s being trashed on the world stage by the actions of both political parties and their spineless reluctance to be honest with people over the economic and social consequences of Brexit- not to mention their unpreparedness for what’s to come as a result of that inertia. Meanwhile, our EU neighbours aren’t. The Ducth have announced plans to recruit 750 extra customs staff to deal with the consequences of the UK leaving the Customs Union and single market (link). What are we doing? Nothing…

The end is nigh for diesel trains? Don’t you believe it…

12 Monday Feb 2018

Posted by Paul Bigland in Jo Johnson MP, Politics, Rail electrification, Rail Investment, Railfreight

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Jo Johnson MP, Politics, Rail Investment, Railfreight, Railways

Today Transport Minister Jo Johnson MP made a policy announcement on the future of the UKs diesel train fleets – sort of, ish…

Because the policy is more of an aspiration, not a firm commitment. Johnson told the BBC that “I would like to see us take all diesel-only trains off the track by 2040. If that seems like an ambitious goal, it should be and I make no apology for that. After all we’re committed to ending the sales of petrol and diesel cars by 2040. If we can achieve that, then why can’t the railway aspire to a similar objective?” Once doesn’t have to be a Professor of English to spot the caveats in that.

The inherent irony here is that his Government has recently scaled back electrification of routes like the Midland Mail Line (MML) and has ordered many more diesel-electric bi-mode trains like the Hitachi Class 802s for GWR. Bi-modes are the worst of all worlds as they’re hardly energy efficient, OK, they may run on electric power for most of the trip, but then they’re carting around a lot of dead-weight in diesel engines and fuel.

This also begs questions about the 55 new CAF built Civity DMUs which are on order for Northern. Can these be converted to EMUs and (even if they can be) what does this do for the economics of the Northern franchise? Elsewhere, Porterbrook leasing are converting all-electric Class 319 trains to bi-mode by fitting them with diesel engines. The rolling stock leasing companies must be scratching their heads right now. They’ve got 1000s of older EMU vehicles coming off-lease in the next few years but without an extension of electrification, there’s nowhere to run them! Instead, we’re going to the halfway-house of bi-mode.

DG288445. 800023. Reading. 16.1.18

GWR are currently taking delivery of these Hitachi Class 800 bi-modes to replace their HST fleet. Does the Government seriously expect the MTU diesel engines to be redundant in 22 yrs time, and if so – how?

Whilst the announcement (or should that be ‘thinking aloud’) will be welcome news for companies like Alstom who have developed a Hydrogen powered train, it leaves more questions than it answers.

There’s one very noticeable omission in the ‘plan’: Freight.

The majority of the UKs railfreight is moved by powerful ‘go anywhere’ diesel locomotives. How will they be replaced by 2040 without electrifying the main freight routes? As many depots and sidings aren’t electrified train builders have fitted ‘last mile’ diesel powerpacks to electric locos. Realistically, can these be replaced by hydrogen or battery power by 2040? And what about the miles of freight lines where diesel operation’s the only viable option? Freight operators exist on very small margins as it is. How would this proposal affect the economics of their operations?

DG246897. Siemens Vectron production line. Munich. Germany. 27.6.16

Siemens Vectron locomotives under construction in Vienna in 2016. These modular locos are can be built as diesel or electric. The version in VR livery is an electric fitted with a ‘last mile’ diesel power-pack.

The current workhorse of UK freight operators is the Class 66. Without widespread electrification, what else could deliver the power at rail needed to move heavy freight trains hundreds of miles at up to 75mph? A Canadian plan for a hydrogen powered locomotive shows that it would be two units, with the second carrying the hydrogen. Doubling the size of the locomotive increases maintenance costs and potentially leads to shorter trains due to the capacity of sidings and loops (also increasing costs).

DG279645. 66206. Golant. 21.8.17

A DB Cargo Class 66 hauls empty china clay wagons away form the harbour at Fowey, Cornwall.

So, I remain sceptical about the ‘plan’ as I don’t see a firm policy or long-term strategy from DfT or Ministers that will allow this to happen, which is a shame as Johnson’s aim is laudable. Recently, I blogged about the change to air quality at Paddington station which was evident now the HSTs and DMU’s were being replaced by electric traction. Sadly, with diesel bi-modes and back-tracking on electrification we seem to be going in the wrong direction.

 

No bregrets?

02 Friday Feb 2018

Posted by Paul Bigland in Brexit, Local elections, Politics, UKIP

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Brexit, Local elections, Politics, UKIP

As the shambles that is Brexit stumbles on from one train crash to another, more and more evidence is emerging that the British people are starting to wake up to the fact that the promised Brexit unicorns don’t actually exist – and never will.

The latest evidence may come from the result of a local council election in Sunderland’s Pallion ward yesterday, where the Liberal Democrats took the seat from Labour with a very sizeable swing.

bregret

Pallion is on the South bank of the River Wear and used to be known for its shipbuilding but the last yard closed in 1988. There’s still one yard which carries out ship repairs, but that’s all. Nowadays the Pallion’s a mixture of industrial estates and residential, bounded by a road ironically named European Way. It’s known as a very deprived ward with high unemployment. You can learn more about the ward from the ‘Britain Elects’ website.

Of course nowaday’s Sunderland’s known for its Nissan car plant rather than shipbuilding.

In the Brexit referendum Sunderland voted to leave the EU by 61% to 39% remain. UKIP had a strong presence in the area, even if they had no Councillors. In the 2014 local elections UKIP made their first appearance, putting up candidates in almost every ward. The election results left them in 2nd place in the vote after the Labour party  – including in Pallion. UKIP played on Sunderland’s shipbuilding past, pretending that they could somehow recreate those days.

pallion

UKIP also came second in 2015 and 2016. But that was then. This is now…

The fact that the ‘will of the people’ was swinging against Brexit was picked up by the local paper as long ago as December 2016 when they ran a poll that demonstrated people had changed their minds (link). Of course, newspaper polls are notorious for their inaccuracy, most are little better than clickbait. But that’s what makes the Pallion ward vote so interesting as it’s a genuine expression of the democratic vote.  Pallion had the same Labour member since 1997, so for the Lib-Dems to go from last in 2014 , leapfrogging UKIP to snatch the seat is amazing. That UKIP are a car-crash nowadays doesn’t account for the massive swing to the Lib-Dems, as Labour and the Tories have lost vote share too. Could a factor be Brexit? Why did both former UKIP and Tory voters switch to the Lib-Dems?

Is anyone in Conservative Central Office or Labour headquarters listening? Both parties are seemingly hell-bent on pursuing Brexit, whatever the cost, but they would be foolish in the extreme to ignore results like this. This is the Brexit heartlands remember, so where’s their support gone? To the one party that’s made it absolutely clear it opposes Brexit!

I wonder how many more results like this we’ll be seeing as the Brexit shambles continues and the consequences can no longer be ignored or denied?

 

 

UKIP. Schadenfreude’s such a lovely word!

21 Sunday Jan 2018

Posted by Paul Bigland in Politics, StopHs2, The Green Party, UKIP

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Politics, StopHs2, The Green Party, UKIP

I can’t help but look upon the imminent demise of UKIP without a certain frisson of pleasure. A party that’s done more to ruin the UK’s reputation abroad and helped deliver the shambles that is Brexit is about to get its come-uppance – as blogger Tim Fenton mentioned today.

Ukip’s most recent accounts show it was £380,630 in debt before the 2017 election which weakened the party’s finances even further. The party’s so skint it can’t even put up candidates in local elections. The parlous state of the party’s finance have been the subject of infighting in the past and an open secret amongst members (link).

Now UKIP can’t afford another leadership election, which might save the skin of the latest temprorary Leader (the 4th in 15 months), Henry Boulton, despite the revelations about his openly racist girlfriend – Jo Marney. Jo’s provided social media with an open goal, so I make no apologies for sharing this pic of the couple caught together on the London Underground after their supposed ‘split’. Oh, and the Twitter commentary from Scott Ballantyne is inspired!

human

Meanwhile, former UKIP leader Nigel Farage has got himself embroiled in the murky world of American politics, Trump, Assange and Russia…(link). There’s no chance of him riding to UKIPs rescue as there no money in it for him anymore which leaves the party stuffed. Even MEPs and some of the remaining local Councillors are jumping ship. John Arnott, the MEP  for the North East of England, said he had lost confidence in Mr Bolton but thought no better of those “jockeying” to replace him.

Here’s a list of recent desertions, with links. Arnott

All 3 Plymouth Cllrs quit

All 5 Hartlepool Cllrs quit

Will the last one to leave please turn out the lights?

Of course, UKIPs collapse spells even more trouble for another bête noire of mine, the Stop Hs2 campaign!

I’ve not seen any evidence that UKIP helped the campaign financially or practically, other then lending it support via social media & having members who had a foot in both camps. But UKIP did help draw attention to the campaign. Their opposition to Hs2 was nothing more than a cynical ploy to attract votes from disaffected Tories who lived on the HS2 route. The problem was that the Stop Hs2 campaign had always exaggerated how much support it had, so the avalanche of votes UKIP hoped for never materialised – even in the Chilterns, which was the ‘hotbed’ of anti Hs2 activity. They gained (and then lost) a couple of Council seats but never seriously threatened to unseat any MPs.

UKIPs demise will leave the Greens as the only party opposing Hs2 – and they’ve got their own problems as their standing in the polls and share of the vote in recent local elections has fallen dramatically. As an illustration of both parties troubles, here’s three local election results from Thursday.

green results

We live in interesting times…

Update: 22 Jan.

UKIPs National Executive Committee met yesterday and passed a motion of no-confidence in Bolton. Bolton refuses to resign, so now a ballot of the (remaining)members will take place. Meanwhile, social media has been kept amused by today’s antics as a series of UKIP ‘Front Benchers’ no-one’s ever heard of have resigned. Ds anyone even *know* UKIP had a spokesperson on Culture? Or Intelligence?  But the biggest ‘pot calling kettle black’ moment came from Neil Hamilton, disgraced former Tory MP, ex-jailbird & now UKIPs leader in Wales, who told the BBC;

“He’s made himself into a ludicrous figure by his own poor judgement and he should get out of the way and allow us to get on with rebuilding the party.”

They’re beyond parody!

The winter blues…

06 Saturday Jan 2018

Posted by Paul Bigland in Donald Trump, Doomed, Politics

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Donald Trump, Doomed, Politics

“I woke up this morning” – is the opening line of many a blues song – only in my case this morning was more like being wrenched into wakefulness by a paroxysm of coughing and spluttering. Like many people, Dawn and I have gone down with the traditional post-Christmas bug so it’s been a much more laid back Saturday then I intended. The pair of us have been coughing and hacking so much anyone walking past the house would be forgiven for mistaking it for a TB clinic.

The winter blues are one of the reasons I normally go abroad this time of the year. Everything seems subdued and miserable after the festive season, many people rein their horns in and count the pennies they haven’t got after overspending on Christmas so towns and pubs seem quiet. Even the weather has done it’s best to contribute to the general air of doom and gloom by pissing down for most of the 2018 we’ve had so far. A brief break in London helped lift my spirits but I’ll be glad when this damned cold’s buggered off – for both of us.

Meanwhile, in the spirit of a surreal age, when an American President takes to Twitter to assure everyone he’s not nuts but one of the smartest people on the planet – I’m heading for the drinks cabinet – whilst it and I still exist. Because, when this is the infantile level of the President of the United States – and supposedly the leader of the free world, we are all, deeply, deeply f****d.

trump 1trump 2

 

Is it any wonder the Green party are bombing in the polls?

27 Wednesday Dec 2017

Posted by Paul Bigland in Anti Hs2 mob, Green Party, Hs2, Mark Keir, Politics

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Green Party, Hs2, Politics, StopHs2

I’ve just come across this load of nonsense about Hs2 from the Green Party’s Mark Kier in Hillingdon, North London. It’s been posted on YouTube by ‘Occupy News Network’, a ragbag of leftists and anarchists. It’s straight from the ‘make it up as you go along’ school of political commentary.

These are the people who’re backing the futile protest in Harvil Rd, which is hardly ‘Swampy’ or Twyford Down! Apart from occupying a stretch of pavement they appear to have been unable to even delay the HS2 preparation work in the area, never mind actually stop anything!

In his YouTube diatribe, Kier claims (amongst other things) that Hs2 costs £110bn (it doesn’t), it’s funded by Chinese loans (it isn’t) and that it’s “wiped out democracy” (that’ll be why Parliament passed the Hs2 bill by a vote of 452 MPS to 41 then!). He also trots out some tired old canards such as the ‘fact’ Hs2 will be wider than a motorway (it won’t) and that the time saving between London-Birmingham is 20 minutes (it isn’t).

The pointless Harvil Rd protest has attracted several Green Party leaders, who’ve trotted along to grandstand and have their photos taken in ‘solidarity’ with the protesters. They’ve all parroted similar nonsense to Kier, which shows that the problems with the party being both dishonest and ill-informed is systemic. It also suggest that the Green party has retreated back to its protest/pressure group roots rather than trying to maintain the fiction that it has any credibility as a serious political party.

None of this rubbish will stop Hs2 in the slightest of course, but it does help to show why the Green Party has slumped in the polls in recent years. I wouldn’t trust this lot to run a whelk stall, far less a Council or, God forbid – a country.

Stop Hs2 never learn…

25 Monday Sep 2017

Posted by Paul Bigland in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Hs2 petitions, Politics, StopHs2

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Hs2 petitions, Railways

I’ve not blogged about the anti Hs2 campaign for some time, mainly because their campaign’s collapsed. There’s nothing going on nationally, just a dwindling number of folk moaning about Hs2 on Twitter. Locally, a few campaign groups on Phase 2 continue to make a noise, but their numbers are small and there’s little in the way of co-ordination.

However, last Thursday, Joe Rukin of the sole surviving ‘national’ group (Stop Hs2) decided to start yet another anti Hs2 petition using the Governments template. What a bad idea! I’ve always said that (like social media), these petitions are a double-edged sword. They’re just as likely to show a campaign’s weaknesses as much as its strengths – as is the case here. Regular readers will know I love this petition format as it provided some very interesting numbers to crunch. Signatories are identified by constituency and a total is given as a percentage of resident constituents. So, this morning I crunched the numbers. The petition will run until March 2018, which means Stophs2 have 6 months of embarrassment to come (if they last that long).

Here’s a link to the petition itself. Hs2 petition.PNG

The map that comes with the petition’s the really useful resource as it highlights the constituents with the largest number of signs using different colours. The darker the colour, the more who’ve signed. Now, spot where Hs2 goes!

hs2 petition map

Straight away the map explodes the myth that the Stop Hs2 campaign’s national. It’s clear that it’s anything but. Folk signing the petition are mostly living on the route, with the greatest concentration on Phase 1 around the Chilterns!

Here’s the number crunching, firstly for constituencies on Hs2 Phase 1 – which is a done deal now.

hs2 numbers p1

The first figure is the number of constituents, the second is the number who’ve signed the petition and the final one is the percentage of constituents. The first fact that leaps out is how tiny the percentages are, the largest is just over half 1%! The second fact is that phase 1 signatories make up a third of the grand total of 6229. The other fact is that other constituencies on the phase 1 route aren’t on the spreadsheet as the numbers of signatories are so small.

Now let’s have a look at Phase 2. I’ve divided them between the two legs of Hs2, Manchester and Leeds. Lets look at the Manchester route first.

p2 M'cr

What’s fascinating about this is that so few constituencies Hs2 passes through feature. This proves what I’ve been saying for some time, the stop Hs2 campaign’s always been weak here (there’s never been a single anti Hs2 group in Manchester for example) but now it looks like it’s pretty much collapsed. Despite the presence of a small but noisy Mid-Cheshire ‘action’ group, Congleton constituency only has 25 signs. Stafford has 31.

Now let’s look at the Leeds leg.

hs2 leeds

The numbers show that all the noise that’s come from one or two groups in Yorkshire and elsewhere hasn’t translated into signatures and the percentages for the constituencies are well below what we see on phase 1, which suggests there’s far less outrage about Hs2 here.

It’s worth remembering that these petitions get the greatest number of signs in the first few days. Once the activists have signed, numbers drop off rapidly. To reach it’s target the petition needs over 555 signs every single day for the duration. There’s no chance of that happening. This petition’s utterly pointless. The only thing it’s doing is allowing people to monitor the pulse of the stophs2 ‘campaign’. Judging by these numbers, it won’t be long before someone turns off its life-support machine. I’ll report back monthly, just to monitor what happens.

 

 

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