Category Archives: Hs2

Richard Wellings caught out making it up again…

12 Friday Jun 2015

Posted by in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Richard Wellings

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Those opposed to hs2 form the usual right wing rag-bag of folks who are opposed to public spending, so it’s no surprise to find both the Taxpayers Alliance and the Institute of Economic Affairs amongst their numbers.

Prominent amongst them is Richard Wellings, the Deputy Editorial Director of the IEA. Wellings likes to pass himself off as a transport expert (solely on the basis of the fact he got a PhD in transport, his practical experience is zilch). Wellings also likes making things up – especially numbers. It was he who invented the ‘Hs2 will cost £80bn’ claim. He did this out by totting up costs of projects that have nothing to do with Hs2 (like Crossrail 2) and inventing railway projects no-one is actually planning to build (Hs2 to Liverpool).

These nonsensical figures play well in sections of the media but anyone with genuine analytical skills & transport knowledge (or even economics) knows what a load of old tosh they really are.

But Wellings has a problem. He has form for making up ridiculous claims for the cost of rail projects – and one of those claims is coming back to haunt him, which is making him very sensitive.

Back in 2008 he wrote a blog for the IEA in which he claimed Crossrail would cost between £20-30bn. Like his hs2 figure it’s a complete fantasy. Even a fag packet would resent having such calculations written on it. You can find it here

Here’s a copy of the claim;

Wellings

It’s worth noting that this blog shows how crap Wellings is at predicting anything. Look at his comment about an interest rate rise!

Wellings big problem is that not only was Crossrail not cancelled, its also stayed well within the budget set for it. The project is 65% complete and all the (risky) tunneling is over. The bill is expected to remain well within the projected £14.8bn. That makes Wellings out by between £5.2bn to £15.2bn. That’s some fag packet!

So Welllings is starting to sweat. His credibility (never high) is on the line here.

He still insists on jumping in with both feet to the Hs2 debate on Twitter and today I challenged him on these figures. His response? He pretended he’d never made any such cost projections!

Wellings costs

Not only is the man no good with figures, he’s no good with the truth either…

Crazy anti Hs2 campaigner of the week – No 5…

10 Wednesday Jun 2015

Posted by in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2

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Well, not so much crazy as an outrageous liar really. Meet ‘Outoftweet123’;

Out of tweet

Yes, like most of his ilk, he prefers anonymity. He claims that Trans-Pennine electrification has been ‘scrapped’ to pay for Hs2 & uses a MEN article as ‘proof’. Here’s a link to the MEN article. Note that it doesn’t claim the work is cancelled, merely delayed. How anyone can claim its been ‘cancelled’ & expect anyone with even half a brain to fall for it is beyond me but the anti Hs2 mobs media campaign is increasingly losing the plot as more & more folk are seeing the light & abandoning them. All they have left is the serial ranters & ravers which only damages their credibility even further.

Needless to say, this abject nonsense gets retweeted by some of their other anonymous fruitloops (although there is one person in the list who really should know better).

Will any of this Stop Hs2? Of course not. But it does provide more evidence of how far out of touch with reality their campaign has become. If they had a theme tune, perhaps it should be this..

And yes – the muppets do seem very appropriate!

2023 Update.

Like most anti HS2 tweets, this one really hasn’t aged well. In 2023 the Trans-Pennine route upgrade (TRU) is in full-swing. Now (3rd April) work to upgrade and electrify the route at Stalybridge is in its last few days after a long blockade. Meanwhile, work continues on the line from Huddersfield to Leeds with work compounds established and even whole stations being moved (such as the one at Morley). Cancelled my arse!

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Hs2 Ltd respond to the Petitioning Committees first report

09 Tuesday Jun 2015

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On the 26th March the Hs2 Petitioning Bill Committee published its first interim report which contained a series of requests & observations generated by the petitioning process. You can find their report here.

Yesterday Hs2 Ltd published their response, which you can read here.

Both make interesting as they give an insight into the issues raised & the vast amount of detailed work that’s gone into progress so far. One thing in particular caught my eye, which was these comments regarding ‘template’ petitions;

Petitions

Cut & paste petitions were a centrepiece of the anti Hs2 mobs tactics. They hoped that, if they swamped the Committee with petitions they could bog down the whole process & delay Hs2 long enough that a new Government would decide to cancel the project due to delays & costs. Like all the other anti Hs2 tactics, it’s failed. The Petitioning Committee have made it clear they aren’t going to let themselves get bogged down this way & neither are Hs2 Ltd.

Another interesting aspect of the Petitioning Committee’s report is that they are looking to make recommendations on the conduct & process of future Hybrid Bills (such as the Phase 2 bill). What’s the bet that one of those recommendations will be to close the loophole of ‘template’ petitions & prevent the threat of future bills getting bogged down in this fashion?

This week’s most bonkers anti Hs2 mob message- No 4.

03 Wednesday Jun 2015

Posted by in Crazy kippers, Hs2, UKIP

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The combination of Hs2 and crazy UKIP supporters has always been a powerful one but the parties abject humiliation in the general election has meant most crazy kippers have crawled back under their rocks. However, today one has thrown their tinfoil hat away and tweeted this gem!

Bonkers

As this one shows, Kippers have never let facts get in the way of their crazy EU paranoia. The ability to deliberately misunderstand what an EU Directive really is isn’t unusual in their world. Unluckily for them the UK electorate saw through them & halved the number of MPs they have.

Hopefully, the party will have disappeared through a combination of internecine warfare and the attentions of the Grim Reaper* by the next election.

*The Grim Reaper should be the party’s logo due to the fact their age demographic is mostly on the wrong side of 65…

My reply to a question from Surveyor Magazine

03 Wednesday Jun 2015

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Yesterday, Surveyor magazine asked if Transport Minister Patrick McLoughlin was right in his assertion that the argument over Hs2 had been won. This was my reply.

He’s absolutely right – and here’s why..

Let’s deal with a few political realities, shall we? The general election exposed the anti hs2 camp as toothless. They have no political clout & their ‘no votes for you with Hs2’ campaign failed to deliver them any political influence whatsoever – even in their supposed heartlands of the Chilterns & Warks. The cold, hard fact is – when it comes to voting for their MP, people have far wider concerns than HS2. The anti Hs2 campaign is in complete denial of this political reality & takes refuge in opinion polls. Their problem is – opinion polls don’t elect politicians, voters do!

In the context of real political power, opinion polls are meaningless. The antis can claim 88% (or whatever) ‘oppose’ Hs2 because they grumble about it in an opinion poll, but if that doesn’t translate into votes – it’s worthless.

Back in the real world, we’ve had a party that made it crystal clear that it was going to press ahead with Hs2 if it was returned to Government. Complaints that there was no ‘real debate’ about Hs2 are simply sour grapes from supporters of a campaign that was never going to win. The anti Hs2 campaign hoped UKIP would be the cavalry that would ride to their rescue but that was never going to happen.

So, McLoughlin is right. The argument has been won. There’s no credible opposition to Hs2, there’s simply a dwindling number of folks who complain about it but who can’t stop it.

In the next 18 months this number will shrink even more as the Hs2 petitioning process is settled and more people are compensated for genuine losses. By the end of 2016 the Hs2 Hybrid Bill will receive Royal Assent & construction will start in 2017 (although enabling works will start in 2016). That means, by the time of the next election, Phase 1 will have been under construction for nearly 4 years & the phase 2 Hybrid Bill will have begun its course through Parliament.

With that in mind, does anyone seriously believe that UKIP (if they haven’t disappeared in internecine warfare) will still oppose Hs2? Or even the Greens – bearing in mind there’s many Greens who are unhappy with the parties stance on hs2 & want to change it?

Labour remain staunchly behind hs2 & will continue that way as it brings undeniable benefits to their remaining heartlands – the major cities & the old industrial areas of the Midlands, NW & NE.

So, who will stop hs2? There’s no-one. The argument is over. Now it’s time to get on with the job of building it – just as McLoughlin has said…

Anti campaigners claims that Hs2 won’t ‘rebalance the North’ are dealt another body blow.

02 Tuesday Jun 2015

Posted by in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Manchester Airport, Northern Powerhouse

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The anti Hs2 campaign’s claims that Hs2 will do nothing to help rebalance the economy & help the North were dealt another serious blow today when Manchester airport announced a £1bn expansion plan that is expected to more than double the number of passengers from 23m to 55m by 2050 and create an extra 20,000 jobs at the airport.

Construction Enquirer reports on the plans here:

Manchester Airport rolls out £1bn expansion plan

Plus, there’s more from the Manchester Evening News here:

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/manchester-airport-expansion-plan-security-9370929

CE reports that “The dramatic expansion scheme has been prompted by the second phase of HS2 and the Government’s plan to improve east-west rail connections of HS3 as part of the development of a Northern Powerhouse.”

This is good news for the North. It also weakens the case for a third runway in the South-East at either Gatwick or Heathrow as Hs2 will provide a fast connection between Manchester airport and many cities (including London). For example:

Manchester Airport – Birmingham will be cut from 1hr 44 to just 32mins

Manchester Airport – London will be cut from 2hr 24 to just 1hr 03 (quicker than getting to Heathrow on the tube!)

Manchester Airport – Heathrow will be cut from 3hr 24 to just 1hr 18.

In addition, the plans for Hs3 should bring many of the North’s cities within 30mins travelling time from Manchester airport, creating a true regional hub. At the moment many folks (like me) still find it more convenient to travel to Heathrow to catch certain flights. Manchester’s expansion plans should cut this need and also reduce the number of internal connecting flights to/from Heathrow.

Joe Rukin & Stop Hs2 are living on another planet.

01 Monday Jun 2015

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If evidence were needed that the anti Hs2 campaign has completely lost the plot then look no further than this piece of self serving nonsense from Joe Rukin published in today’s Bucks Herald.

http://www.bucksherald.co.uk/news/more-news/hs2-reasons-to-be-cheerful-following-election-1-6772919

Headlined ‘reasons to be cheerful’ it’s straight from the Comical Ali school of reality denial & wishful thinking. It’s no co-incidence this daft piece of propaganda appears in local rag the Bucks Herald. The Herald is a semi-official mouthpiece of the anti Hs2 campaign that’s happy to churn out any old rubbish the antis feed it (hardly surprising then, that its circulation is diving).

What’s particularly sad about Rukin’s desperate attempt to save his own neck & non-job is that some poor folks affected by Hs2 may well be given false hope by this breathtaking piece of reality denial masquerading as informed comment. Although, what’s interesting is -if you read behind the lines, Rukin is tacitly admitting that there’s nothing they can do to Stop Hs2, they’re simply praying someone else will. Mind you, before the election they though UKIP would be the cavalry riding to their rescue – and look where that got them…

Meanwhile, what are the likes of Stophs2 actually doing? Nothing. They’ve no events planned at all. No rallies or demo’s, no gatherings – nothing. They’re reduced to an internet presence that few see or care about – or the occasional uncritical article in friendly local rags like the Bucks Herald.

Meanwhile, back in the real world, the Transport Minister, Patrick McLoughlin is in Leeds today,along with Hs2 Chairman Sir David Higgins. McLoughlin will be talking not just about accelerated progress on Hs2 but also Hs3. I’ll add more on this later but you can be sure of one thing. They won’t be giving Rukin any reasons to be cheerful…

You can find McLoughlin’s bullish speech here:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/transport-has-power-to-change-the-north

As predicted, there’s not a single crumb of comfort for Rukin & the rest of the anti Hs2 mob. For example:

“Thankfully, the northern electorate didn’t listen to those who tried to play politics with HS2 during the election campaign.

Neither did the people of the west and east Midlands.

So the argument’s been won.

HS2 will be built.”

Or this:

“Start preparing now.

Because HS2 is coming.

It’s coming to Leeds.

To Manchester.

To south Yorkshire.

And the east Midlands.

The time to debate the various merits of high speed rail is over.

Now it’s time to get our cities ready.

Ready for construction.

Ready for investment and regeneration.”

Now, Joe, what was that about reasons to be cheerful?

Number crunching…

30 Saturday May 2015

Posted by in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Virgin West Coast, WCML

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Following on from yesterday’s blog about the anti Hs2 campaigns false claims of ‘falling’ passenger numbers & no business case for Hs2 I’ve been crunching a few numbers.

When Virgin Trains started running trains on the West Coast Main Line (WCML) in 1997 there were 13.6 million passenger journeys. In 2014 that had increased to 34.5million – an increase of 153.6% or an average of 5.6% per year. The Hs2 business case is based on an annual growth of just 2% per year up to 2039..

We are already far, far ahead of Hs2’s conservative projections – and that’s just because of one TOC on the WCML.

According to the anti Hs2 mob, these people don't exist. (or should just get an earlier train)...

According to the anti Hs2 mob, these people don’t exist. (or should just get an earlier train)…

Yet another nail in the anti Hs2 campaigns coffin

29 Friday May 2015

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One of the most laughable aspects of the anti Hs2 campaign is the way antis try & pretend there’s no capacity argument for building Hs2. They do this by focusing exclusively on peak time Virgin trains services out of Euston & ignore everything else such as inter regional & local services, freight, or capacity constraints at other major stations on the routes Hs2 will relieve. These ‘look over there’ tactics fool a few observers but anyone with any knowledge or experience of the railways isn’t fooled.

A few are even stupid enough to try & pretend passenger numbers are falling. Like this one;

Docorb

Such idiotic claims fly in the face of fact – as the latest statistics from ORR (released in March 2015) so clearly show:

ORR

What’s also significant is the even larger rise in long distance passenger kilometres (The number of kilometres travelled by passengers on the network).

ORR 3

This isn’t an isolated rise either. The last ORR release for Quarter 2 noted record numbers then too:

ORR 2

Then long distance passenger Km’s rose by 5.5%

Click to access passenger-rail-usage-quality-report-2014-15-q2.pdf

Of course these are only the long distance figures. There’s sustained growth across all the other sectors too. Hs2 antis deliberately ignore them but it’s obvious they have an impact on mainline capacity as they use all the main stations that long distance services like Virgin West Coast do!

Another nail in their coffin is an interview with Virgin Trains West Coast Executive Director (Ops), Phil Bearpark which has been published in the Railway Gazette.

This mentions that Virgin have enjoyed ‘linear’ growth since the introduction of the 2007 VHF timetable. So much so that passenger journeys reached 34.5m in 2014-15. Bearpark told RG that “if numbers continue to rise at the same rate, then in 2026, when Hs2 starts, it is our intention that we’ll have got to 50 million passengers by then through year-on-year growth” In Bearpark’s words. This “was the business case for hs2”

Of course, this is just the WCML. Hs2 also releases capacity on the East Coast and Midland main lines, which are also experiencing a growth in traffic & capacity constraints.

With the economy picking up & the UK population projected to hit 70 million by 2027 (the year after Hs2 phase 1 opens ) & 73.2 million by 2035 (two years after phase 2) there’s no reason at all to believe Bearpark’s projections are optimistic . Well, not unless you’re an Hs2 anti in denial of course!

Parliament’s back to work & the HS2 Bill moves on

27 Wednesday May 2015

Posted by in Anti Hs2 mob, General election, Hs2, Hs2aa, Politics, StopHs2

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Today’s Queen’s speech means Parliament is back at work & progress on the Hs2 Hybrid Bill will pick up where it left off – with a slight amendment. One of the Hybrid Bill members lost his seat at the election so a replacement will need to be found for the former Lib-Dem MP for Eastleigh, Mike Thornton. There’s speculation in some circles that his replacement will come from the SNP as they’ve replaced the Lib-Dems as the 3rd largest. We shall have to wait and see…

Continuity is also the name of the game over at the Department of Transport where Patrick McLaughlin remains in post as Transport Minister. This is good news for the rail industry and Hs2 as there’s no need to get a new Minister up to speed with what needs to be done.

Of course, all this is bad news for the anti Hs2 camp who don’t seem know which way to turn now their ‘great white hope’ (UKIP) has vanished in a cloud of voting papers – taking a huge chunk of the anti Hs2 tweeters with them. The anti Hs2 mobs Twitter campaign has descended into farce since the election. There are still a few blowhards hanging on from the old days who think ranting on the internet changes anything but many of them are isolated individuals with no backing, or what can be charitably called ‘special people’. Here’s a typical example of the isolated Tweeter from that well known hotbed of anti hs2 activism. Err, Lisburn, in Northern Ireland (‘hotbed’? Are you sure this is right? Ed).

Busker

The folks who are noticeable by their absence nowadays are the supposed ‘action group’ network although this is hardly surprising. They’ve been in decline for years & really have nowhere to go anymore. The Hybrid Bill petitioning process has drawn any sting they might have thought they had – and the election results have shown they’ve no political clout (even at a local council level). Their public rallies have been abandoned as an embarrassment as so few folks turn up. So there’s little reason for their existence any more.

I do genuinely feel sorry for the people who are affected by Hs2 & who’ve been gulled into thinking the anti campaign really could stop Hs2. They’ve been given false hope & some of them have thrown away both time & money. The election results have shown that the scales have dropped from quite a few eyes. Sadly it’s too much to hope that the people who cynically exploit them (StopHs2 & Hs2aa) will suffer an outbreak of honesty, realism or contrition. However, the good news is that as their activist base dies a source of funding dries up too. As StopHs2 funds come predominantly from one man – it’s anyone’s guess when he’ll see sense & stops throwing his money away.

As another example of a campaign going nowhere fast I’ve updated the antis ‘scores on the doors’. These show their social media growth (or not!) on Facebook & Twitter.

Hs2

The usual caveats apply. Not all followers are supporters etc…

Looking through social media the anti’s sense of aggrieved bewilderment is obvious. Some of them had bought into their own hype so completely they still can’t admit what had really happened at the election. There’s complete denial over the implications of their general election no-show & risible ‘no votes for you with Hs2’campaign (which influenced no-one at all). What none of them will talk about or deal with is the awkward question of ‘how are we going to Stop Hs2 now’? Because the answer is staring them in the face. They can’t. At the risk of falling in the trap of Godwin’s law – I can only compare them to the last days of the Third Reich & the mentality inside the bunker as the Russians closed in, with UKIP in the role of General Felix Steiner’s Army Detachment.

No doubt there’ll still be media speculation & a fair bit of froth in the next few months as the Hs2 Hybrid Bill continues its course through Parliament but the position is clear. There’s no credible opposition to Hs2 & there’s even less of a credible alternative. Rail passenger growths continues apace as the economy picks up – and look out for some interesting statistics & comments to appear from Virgin Trains on their West Coast business.