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Tag Archives: Northern Powerhouse

Confusion reigns over Northern’s trains!

02 Thursday Jan 2020

Posted by Paul Bigland in Northern Rail, Rail Investment, Railways

≈ 2 Comments

Tags

Northern Powerhouse, Northern Rail, Rail Investment, Railways

On the day when commuters returned to work after the New Year holiday and rail fares increased by an average 2.7% and Northern were still cancelling services, confusion reigned over the future of the Northern franchise. This morning Transport Minister Grant Shapps gave an interview to the BBC which was widely interpreted by the media as him announcing he was stripping operator Arriva of the franchise. The BBC later backtracked on this and ITV secured a quote from the Dept of Transport saying that no decision had been made.

A new CAF Class 195 stands at Sowerby Bridge earlier today whilst working 1E62, the 1224 Chester to Leeds. In the adjacent platform is a refurbished Class 158. Displaced from top link jobs by the 195s, it’s working 2L96, the 13.17 Leeds to Wigan Wallgate. Previously this would have been a Class 142 or 150 working.

So what is happening? Will Arriva lose the franchise?

Shapps has made it fairly clear this is his intention and an operator of last resort is being put into place. But it’s not going to happen overnight. Politically, it would be a popular move as Northern have come in for a huge amount of criticism over the past year. Some of it justified, some not. Elected Mayors, User groups and the passengers themselves have all given the company a good kicking. The fact the franchise’s MD has a very low profile compared to previous bosses like Heidi Mottram and Alex Hynes hasn’t helped either. They’re seen by many (including their staff) as a faceless company. But no franchise has ever been terminated purely on the grounds of poor performance…

What isn’t clear to seasoned observers is how running Northern from a desk at the DfT in Westminster is meant to improve anything. After all, the franchise was specified by the DfT in the first place! Let’s look at some of the problems Northern are facing and where responsibility lies.

Infrastructure.

The company’s suffered from the late completion (or shelving entirely) of infrastructure enhancements like electrification that were meant to help it deliver new timetables and new services. These are the results of failings by Network Rail which is already in public control and funded by Government, plus political delays in decision-making on future enhancements like the Trans-Pennine route upgrade (which was ‘paused’ by then Transport Minister Chris Grayling) and the Manchester Oxford Rd corridor.

Trains.

Problems with the late delivery of new and refurbished trains such as the CAF built Class 331s and 195s, as well as the rebuilt Class 769 bi-mode trains have had a big impact, as have the inevitable teething problems with new fleets. None of these are Northern’s fault, but they’ve meant that the company has suffered more cancellations and-short-formed trains. It’s also going to be keeping over 45 old Pacer trains running until May (possibly August) 2020 when they should all have gone by the end of last year. This is manna from heaven for the critics, but what else can they do? Leave themselves short of trains and cancel more services? They’re caught between a rock and a hard place until all the new trains are in service (over a year late).

Staffing.

The new trains being late has had an impact on staff training and availability, which hasn’t helped service levels or delivery of the new timetables. There’s also the small matter of finding paths to run these trains in to allow mileage accumulation and time for staff to familiarise themselves with their workings. The difficulty finding paths has been exacerbated by both LNER and Trans-Pennine also introducing new fleets, leaving capacity at a premium. Sweating the Northern fleet by running complex diagrams and relying on staff working rest days hasn’t helped either. Nor have the problems at Trans-Pennine Express. Their timetabling problems have an impact on Northern services at pinch points like Leeds and Manchester.

Here’s an illustration of today’s performance for Northern and TPE, taken from the Trains.im website. Timed at 19.50.

Green is on time. Orange is between 5-30m late and Red is over 30m late or cancelled.

How will stripping Arriva of the franchise resolve these issues? It won’t.

What will happen to the franchise in the long term? There’s a lot of rumours flying around that the franchise will be split into East and West, as it was before two areas were merged to form the first Northern franchise in 2004.

If the Conservatives wanted to play clever, they might even decide to hand these franchises over to local control. Either directly to transport for the North, or (if they’re feeling really devious) they could give Manchester’s elected Mayor, Andy Burnham, a level of control. He’s a long-standing critic of Northern and as a Labour Party member he’s pushed for rail renationalisation. The expression ‘be careful what you wish for’ springs to mind here as the buck would (potentially) then stop with him. Only he’s no control over the root causes of Northern’s problems either!

Whatever is decided in the corridors of power, the franchises problems will continue until the infrastructure and capacity is sorted out. The situation with staff and new trains will ease when the new fleets are fully introduced and trains and staff are bedded in which will mean punctuality will improve but it won’t cure bottlenecks around Manchester or Leeds. If the Government is serious about investing in the North (and keeping the Labour constituencies that turned Tory at the last election) it’s going to have to address these issues by investing in HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail. But what does it do in the short-term as neither of these projects will be delivered for two general elections? A quick fix could be to devolve power and money to the North and say, ‘right, get on with it’…

Meanwhile, there’s looking like there’s going to be rail congestion at the DfT as a number of franchises are looking rocky. TPE seemed Teflon-coated as Northern got all the flack, but now they’re starting to feel the heat too and there’s no sign of a recovery plan. SouthWestern Railway is under pressure too, both financially and through strike action. There’s also the unresolved SouthEastern franchise. And what of the William’s review?

It’s not as if there’s a queue of people waiting to bid for franchises. Let’s face it, despite what some on the left claim, they’re hardly a licence to print money more like a licence to lose it – as this informative tweet from my RAIL colleague Phil Haigh demonstrates! Abellio aren’t having a happy time with a few of their franchises, including Scotrail.

So, not only can you lose your shirt, there’s also the reputational damage. Is it any wonder both Virgin and Stagecoach have now left the field? As a source at Stagecoach told me, the cost of recent unsuccessful bids wiped out the profits from their bus operations. When bidding is that expensive (£5m plus a pop) and the chances of winning so uncertain, why bother?

A long day at the office.

02 Tuesday Jul 2019

Posted by Paul Bigland in Manchester, Northern Powerhouse, Northern Rail, Rail Investment, Railways, TPE, Transport for Wales (TfW)

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Tags

Northern Powerhouse, Northern Rail, Railways, TPE, Transport for Wales (TfW)

I’ve been at work since 07:30 this morning, busy editing the mountain of pictures from yesterday, sorting out paperwork and job enquiries and all the other stuff that comes with being a freelance photographer, writer and ACoRP judge. Sometimes I feel like I could do to clone myself as there’s just not enough hours in the day to get through everything. On the bright side, my commute from bedroom to office takes about a minute – or possibly 10 if I go downstairs and make coffee first!

Editing the pictures I took yesterday made me realise just how much the railways in the North are changing. The location I picked in Central Manchester is one I’ve not used for a few years. Since then, several of the franchises passing through (EMT, Northern and Transport for Wales) have or are changing hands, whilst a number of new services are using it due to the extension of electrification and the opening of the Ordsall Chord. Here’s a couple of pictures I didn’t add to yesterday’s blog that illustrate what I mean.

DG327070. 319374. Manchester Oxford Rd. 1.7.19.crop

Here’s 319374 working 2F17, the 1318 Crewe to Liverpool Lime Street. The 319s started appearing in the NW in 2015, displacing many of the Class 323s on Crewe trains when the service was extended to Liverpool Lime St thanks to electrification.

DG327141. 323223. 319370. Manchester Oxford Rd. 1.7.19.crop

A sight you never used to see. 323223 works 2A90, the 1428 Liverpool Lime Street to Crewe whilst 319370 is working 2N69, the 1502 Hazel Grove to Blackpool North.

DG327184. 175107. 175109. Manchester Oxford Rd. 1.7.19.crop

I’d never seen a five-car on this train before. Here’s 175107 in the new Transport for Wales livery and 175109 in the old ATW livery working 1D30, the 1536 Manchester Airport to Llandudno. These units will be replaced by brand new stock in the next few years.

DG327177. 67014. Oxford Rd. Manchester. 1.7.19.crop

Another train that’s due to be replaced by new stock is this, TfW’s 1H89, the 1307 Holyhead to Manchester Piccadilly which still uses ex-Virgin Trains Mk3 coaches and a DVT. The DB Class 37 still sports the old Wrexham and Shropshire livery, despite that company ceasing operation in January 2011. 

DG327121. 185117. Manchester Oxford Rd. 1.7.19.crop

185117 just after leaving Oxford Rd whilst working 1P76, the 1255 Middlesbrough to Manchester Airport which has passed through Manchester Victoria and traversed the Ordsall chord.

As you can see, it’s a changed network and it will change even more over the next few years as the CAF built Class 195s enter service en-masse and if the West Midlands Class 323s are cascaded to Northern to replace the 319s in order to allow 6-car trains to run. Then there’s the new TPE stock which will (hopefully) begin to enter service later this year. The North’s railways are going through some exciting and positive times, not that you’d know that from listening to the Mayor of Manchester, Andy Burnham, who only mentions the railways when it’s an excuse to stick the boot into the Northern Rail franchise. Despite an invitation to attend the launch of Northern’s new trains, he was conspicuous by his absence.

The rest of this evening’s been taken up with planning the logistics of the next couple of days work for a client. Thursday – Friday will see me in London and Manchester and I’ll be travelling down to London later tomorrow. It will involve another early morning commute to the office as I’ve plenty to do before I head South. So, it’s goodnight from me! Watch out for a rolling blog tomorrow…

 

 

 

Anti campaigners claims that Hs2 won’t ‘rebalance the North’ are dealt another body blow.

02 Tuesday Jun 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Manchester Airport, Northern Powerhouse

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Tags

Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Manchester Airport, Northern Powerhouse

The anti Hs2 campaign’s claims that Hs2 will do nothing to help rebalance the economy & help the North were dealt another serious blow today when Manchester airport announced a £1bn expansion plan that is expected to more than double the number of passengers from 23m to 55m by 2050 and create an extra 20,000 jobs at the airport.

Construction Enquirer reports on the plans here:

http://www.constructionenquirer.com/2015/06/02/manchester-airport-rolls-out-1bn-expansion-plan/

Plus, there’s more from the Manchester Evening News here:

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/manchester-airport-expansion-plan-security-9370929

CE reports that “The dramatic expansion scheme has been prompted by the second phase of HS2 and the Government’s plan to improve east-west rail connections of HS3 as part of the development of a Northern Powerhouse.”

This is good news for the North. It also weakens the case for a third runway in the South-East at either Gatwick or Heathrow as Hs2 will provide a fast connection between Manchester airport and many cities (including London). For example:

Manchester Airport – Birmingham will be cut from 1hr 44 to just 32mins

Manchester Airport – London will be cut from 2hr 24 to just 1hr 03 (quicker than getting to Heathrow on the tube!)

Manchester Airport – Heathrow will be cut from 3hr 24 to just 1hr 18.

In addition, the plans for Hs3 should bring many of the North’s cities within 30mins travelling time from Manchester airport, creating a true regional hub. At the moment many folks (like me) still find it more convenient to travel to Heathrow to catch certain flights. Manchester’s expansion plans should cut this need and also reduce the number of internal connecting flights to/from Heathrow.

Thoughts on today’s ‘Northern Powerhouse’ announcements.

20 Friday Mar 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Politics, Railways, Transport

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Tags

Investment, Northern Powerhouse, Railways, Transport

Here’s a link to today’s Northern Transport Strategy report

Click to access the-northern-powerhouse-tagged.pdf

My first thoughts?

It’s good to see that the report has added flesh to the bones of Hs3 by coming up with a variety of costed schemes. This shopping list of options should really help to move the debate forward. As for the total bill, it’s worth bearing in mind that all these schemes are loaded with a 60% ‘optimisation bias’ this should decrease once the schemes are worked out in detail.

Of course, lots of questions remain. For example, what route would a new line through the Pennines take? There are also implications for current plans to electrify the Leeds – Manchester Trans-Pennine route through the Colne valley via Huddersfield. Is the scheme likely to be delayed further by the announcement?

Real positives are the way investment focus has shifted away from concentrating on London & the South East & the fact we (at last) seem to be looking at a strategy that involves looking beyond Parliamentary terms or even Network Rail control periods. No doubt the cynics will see these announcements as window dressing for the forthcoming election. I don’t subscribe to that view. There’s been too much work put in by too many folks on all sides of the political divide. Although I do have concerns about the way some Northern politicians all too easily lapse into parochialism – especially on the Eastern side of the Pennines!

Other interesting parts of the announcement are the proposal to simply the fares structure & introduce what sounds like a Northern equivalent to London’s travel zones. Modernising ticketing with a contactless card system should also be welcomed.

Freight often seems to be an afterthought in these grand plans so it’s a welcome change to see a freight strategy mentioned.

Back on another favourite subject (Hs2) I believe this report & the people united behind it demonstrate just how irrelevant those campaigning against Hs2 are nowadays. Rather than it being stopped we’re seeing proposals to bring it to Crewe 6 years earlier than originally planned!

I’ll blog more when I’ve had chance to read through the full report. For now, here are the rail options included in the announcement, along with a map;

Screen-Shot-2015-03-20-at-06.39.19-600x381

• Leeds to Newcastle times of around 50 minutes (compared to a best time of 87 minutes currently): £8.5bn – £14bn – Option 1

• Sheffield to Manchester times of around 27 minutes (compared to a best time of 48 minutes currently), and Manchester to Leeds in around 30 minutes: £12bn – £19bn – Option 2

• Manchester to Leeds times of around 30 minutes (compared to a best time of 49 minutes currently): £6.5bn – £10bn – Option 3

• Liverpool to Manchester times of around 20 minutes (compared to a best time of 32 minutes currently): £8bn – £13bn – Option 4

• Leeds to Hull times of around 28 minutes (compared to a best time of 55 minutes currently): £5.5bn – £9bn – Option 5

Upgrades and cut-offs costing £12.5bn-£23bn-plus

• Leeds to Newcastle journey times of around 70 to 80 minutes: £1bn-£4bn – Option 6

• Sheffield to Manchester times of around 39 minutes: £3bn – £5bn – Option 7

• Manchester to Leeds times of around 34 minutes: £4.5bn – £7bn – Option 8

• Liverpool to Manchester times of around 23 minutes: £4bn and £7bn – Option 9

• Sheffield to Hull times of around 60 minutes (compared to a best time of 86 minutes currently) through upgrading the existing route – Option 10 – or using HS2 into Leeds, combined with the proposed Leeds to Hull improvements

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