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Crunching the StopHs2 social media stats: November 2018

02 Sunday Dec 2018

Posted by Paul Bigland in Social media, StopHs2

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social media, StopHs2

It’s time to crunch the monthly Stop Hs2 social media statistics and see how their ‘campaign’ is faring – and the answer is not very well at all! Their ‘relaunch’ was a bit of a fiasco and the blizzard of tweets and facebook posts has reduced to little more than a flurry. Meanwhile, the ‘action’ on their website barely registers a pulse!

First off is Facebook. In October they managed 48 posts, this has now slumped to 22. As us usual is all reactive, not proactive. There’s no campaign news because there’s nothing going on. All that gets a mention is that their grandly titled ‘Chair’ (what’s she chairing in Bournemouth? Ed) Penny Gaines has been dragged to the phone to give another interview to the media. There’s no news from any ‘action’ groups as there’s not real action going on. All you get is posts of anything in the media that’s critical of Hs2, such as someone writing a letter to their local rag. Here’s the numbers crunched, with last month’s as a comparison.

FB 4

Despite them having nearly 200 more followers to almost hit the 9000 mark, the numbers are actually pretty pathetic. Remember, there’s 6.5 million people living in constituencies that Hs2 passes through, so, even if all the folk who follow them on Facebook actually lived on the route, they’d still only have reached 0.13%! That’s pathetic. Mind you, when you read some of the comments that get posted, you can see that this isn’t exactly the intellectual end, some of it’s plain barking!

FB 1

fb2

fb 3

Now let’s have a look at Twitter.

stophs2 twitter

Not exactly setting Twitter alight, are they? A 61% decrease in tweets. The show’s over folks – the ‘relaunch’ has sunk without trace and numbers are returning to normal, despite a 3% increase in followers too! Mind you, 3% of sod all was never going to make much of an impact anyway! An average of 21 retweets from 6363 followers is pretty unspectacular when it come to getting any message out! Oh, and don’t forget the usual caveat, many of these Facebook and Twitter followers won’t be supporters. They’re just there to keep an eye on what they’re up to, so the numbers are worse than they look.

 

A Favour.

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Crunching the StopHs2 social media stats: October 2018

01 Thursday Nov 2018

Posted by Paul Bigland in Hs2, StopHs2

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Hs2, StopHs2

It’s that time again when I wade through the Stop Hs2 ‘campaign’ social media stats to revel the truth behind the ridiculous claims and the hyperbole that this tiny bunch actually have huge public support. Stophs2 is still essentially two people: Penny Gaines (who’s been living in Bournemouth for several years now) and Joe Rukin who lives in Kenilworth. Despite having been trying for quite some time to find a proper job, no-one’s been daft enough to give him one. But then, as Joe’s a very strained relationship with facts (or the truth) it’s hardly surprising.

So, it’s been a busy month for them as their ‘campaign’ was ‘relaunched’ at the end of September, just in time for the conference season. Well, when I say relaunched, I mean they managed to drag some people together from a couple of the remaining local (in)action groups to send half a dozen people to leaflet outside the Tory conference (for all the good it did). Gone are the ‘glory’ days when they could afford to have stands inside the conferences, it’s all hand to mouth now…

OK, let’s crunch some numbers. I’m not going to post tables of individual tweets as there’s too many to bore you with (although I have the individual numbers if anyone wants them). Here’s the headline numbers. Let’s do Twitter first with a chart comparing their metrics over the past 3 months.

Hs2 tweet metrics Oct 2018

Despite the huge increase in Tweets in the last month (257%) and a 2% gain in followers, their numbers have hardly changed! In fact, the averages are worse than in August, as is their best number. Here’s their most popular tweet this month. As usual, it’s linked to Private Eye.

stophs2 most popular tweet Oct 2018

Herein lies a tale – both on their Twitter accounts and their Facebook page. Most of the stuff they Tweet or publish is linked to articles in the media, especially if it’s seen as critical of Hs2. But there’s no campaign news. There’s bugger all about what they’re doing, because most of the time that’s nothing. It’s the same with ‘news’ from the remaining (in)action groups, there’s so little going on there’s nothing to post. Stop Hs2 are almost entirely reactive, not proactive.

To be honest, both their feeds are mind-numbingly boring. Twitter is full of Rukin’s school of student politics: sweary and insulting. Nothing that resembles a campaign with intellect or gravitas. They’re reduced to moaning about Hs2, not organising to stop Hs2. If you’re suffering from insomnia have a browse of the #hs2 hashtag and see the sort of people who post anti Hs2 messages. It’s the last refuge of the green-ink brigade. There’s a couple of dozen regulars who are a mix of Nimbys, UKIPpers who think that Hs2’s a dastardly EU plot, right-wing libertarians and a few hand-wringing Greens who’ve been painted into a corner to oppose Hs2 but clearly have no alternatives to offer.

Facebook is very much the same. Here’s the last 3 months.

stophs2 FB Oct 18

Let’s put all these numbers in perspective. There’s 6.5 million people who live in constituencies Hs2 will pass through, yet the sole surviving Stop Hs2 group’s only got 6302 Twitter followers and 8745 Facebook followers. That’s pathetic frankly, especially when you remember not all their followers will be sympathetic to them. What the numbers show is that their activist base is minute. Not only that, but many of their followers are clearly as mad as a box of frogs! One only has to read the comments to see that some people’s grasp of reality is tenuous, to say the least. Take a look at these few posted on Facebook recently…

FB1

fb2

fb3

fb3

As usual, it’s always the same small band of people posting exactly the same stuff they’ve been doing for years. It’s a ‘campaign’ that seems to spend most of its time chasing its tail.

Another obvious sign that there’s nothing going on is Stophs2’s own website. Up to 2017 they would be churning out 30 plus posts as month (I crunched those numbers here). Now they’re down to just 3 or 4. You can check out their archive here. They contain so much bluster and dodgy predictions they’re actually quite funny.

Now the conference season’s come and gone and the dust over the recent announcements about the Phase 2b Environmental statement and phase 2a contractors search has settled. It’s clear that the much hyped MP’s ‘rebellion’ over Hs2 was just that – hype. Meanwhile, construction of Hs2 continues across the phase 1 sites as the archaeological digs continue. In the meantime, demolition work around Euston will be speeding up. In 2019 construction of phase 1 will begin in earnest. I wonder of Joe Rukin will have found a real job by then?

The fantasy world of Joe Rukin and Stophs2

11 Thursday Oct 2018

Posted by Paul Bigland in Hs2, Joe Rukin, Railways, StopHs2

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Hs2, Joe Rukin, Railways, StopHs2

I’ve been a bit busy recently so I hadn’t seen this load of rubbish from StopHs2’s pet windbag. No, not ‘Ellie’ the inflatable elephant, but their laughably titled ‘Campaign Manager’ Joe Rukin!

Stophs2 have been punting this YouTube video of Rukin lying through his teeth on ITV – not that it’s doing very well as it’s only had 70+ views.

Rukin doesn’t ‘genuinely believe’ any such thing. He’s a practised liar who’ll claim anything and he’s lots of form for trotting out outrageous porkies in the hope people are gullible enough to fall for it. Remember his previous lie that Hs2 will cause £8.3bn of ‘cuts’ to rail services that I exposed here?

So, no rail investment for the next 20 years “anywhere on the network”eh? That will come as a huge surprise to Network Rail who’ve already got an ambitious programme of work planned for Control Period 6 (CP6) which starts in 2019. Back in October 2017 the DfT published the SoFA (Statement of Funds Available) which says “we expect around £47.9 billion to be spent on the railway across control period 6”. Earlier in July 2017 they also published the High level output specification (HLOS).

Not that Rukin will have ever read any of these of course. I doubt he even knows they exist as they show what a liar the man is. The SoFA contains this statement.

enhancements

Oops! Joe’s fallen at the first hurdle here. The announcement of ‘new enhancement’ schemes rather gives the game away.

Meanwhile, what’s in Network Rail’s Strategic Business Plan which was published earlier this year? Well, lots of enhancements actually. There’s a huge investment in digital signalling for a start. Oh, then there’s the £237m remodelling of Kings Cross station approaches, which is planned for 2020. Not to mention the £3bn Trans-Pennine route upgrade which begins next year.

Did I mention Scotland? The Scottish Government has committed to a rolling programme of route upgrades and electrification, including Aberdeen-Inverness. and bringing high-speed rail to Scotland. In Wales the new franchise is introducing lots of improvements between now and 2024 which includes new trains, stations and depots.

Oh, there’s also a small matter of fact that there’s 1000s of of new train cars either already being delivered or on order. So, as you can see, Rukin’s bare-faced lies sinply don’t stand up to any form of scrutiny – and that’s without me shredding him any further by mentioning East-West rail, the ECML Peterborough ‘dive-under’ at Werrington Jn, the Midland mainline upgrade and many, many more…

Rukin reminds me of the old joke about politicians. How can you tell when he’s lying? His lips move! Even his ‘fans’ must be getting sick of being deceived by now.

But it’s not just that. This highlights why I’m unhappy with some of my fellow journalists and their standards. Rukin was allowed to broadcast this travesty of the truth thanks to ITV who had no-one ask him the slightest question – much less any of the one’s I’ve highlighted in this blog. Where was the professional (informed) journalist challenging him on camera and saying “but hang on Joe”…This is why we’re in such a mess now. When did the mainstream media like the BBC and ITV let this rubbish pass through their filters? Since when did journalism get this lazy?

That said, we’re in the throes of the Brexit shambles, which the BBC seems to have aided and abetted, so maybe I shouldn’t be too surprised….

 

Rolling blog: a tale of two cities.

01 Monday Oct 2018

Posted by Paul Bigland in Birmingham, Hs2, London, St Pancras station, StopHs2, Travel

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Birmingham, Hs2, London, St Pancras station, StopHs2, Travel

I’m on the move again right now, heading for both London and Birmingham, firstly to drop in to St Pancras station and say ‘happy 150th birthday’, then go in search of the massive Stophs2 protest outside the Tory party conference. OK, that last bit was a lie. I’ll probably have difficulty finding them as it looks like it’ll be very much a one man and his elephant sort of protest.

Watch this space…

09:06.

My first train of the day, a ‘nodding donkey working the 0906 to Southport.

The weather here in West Yorkshire stunning. It’s a beautifully crisp and sunny autumn morning with the temperature in single figures. The railways are readying for the leaf-fall season now as I’ve just passed one of Network Rail’s RHTT (Railhead Treatment Trains) that blast leaves off the rails using high-powered water jets. It’s remindex me that must get some lineside shots later in the month, when the leaves gain their full colour before falling.

10:27

I’m now on train number 2 – the 10:2€ Cross-country service from Manchester Piccadilly to Bournemouth via Birmingham. It’s a relatively quiet service (for now) which is just as well as it’s only a four-car. I’ve no doubt it’ll fill up en-route.

Whilst a half-hourly service between Manchester and Birmingham’s an improvement on BR days it’s a pretty poor offering in 2018, mainly because of the time it takes and the type of train. This service will take 1hr 31m.

13:04

So, here I am in Birmingham at the Tory conference, Stophs2 elephant hunting. As expected, they were a bit hard to find, mainly because they’re outgunned and outnumbered by ever other demonstration here! Once I made my way past the ‘God squad’ (who had at least half a dozen people  here) I was held up by a very colourful (and noisy) anti-fracking group of men and women – many of whom had dressed up before I found Joe Rukin, who’d dressed down! Apparently, he was accompanied by Archie Taylor from Warks, but he was nowhere to be seen

Here’s Joe on his own, trying (and failing) to give out leaflets whilst the anti-fracking people behind him heavily outnumber him, in the very back, you can see ‘Ellie’ the inflatable elephant all on her own in a corner!

DG310071crop

Here’s poor Ellie, looking very abandoned…

DG310061crop

So, this is the ‘relaunched’ Stophs2 campaign. Sad, isn’t it? meanwhile, inside the hall, the Government has re-iterated its support for HS2 and there’s several events going on with rail industry leaders throughout the day. Over at New St station, Siemens and the High Speed Rail Industry Leaders have a virtual reality tour of Hs2 and a model of the Velaro Novo…

DG310026crop

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23:11

My tour of two cities turned into one. I got caught up in the completely surreal atmosphere of the Tory party conference and meeting up with colleagues. I also ended up spending an hour or two dealing with picture requests. I have to say, I can’t help thinking this country is screwed, the rhetoric that was coming out of the conference (plus some of the delegates I met) are utterly bonkers. I can’t help thinking that the EU will be breathing a collective sigh of relief to see the back of us…

 

Crunching the StopHs2 social media stats: September 2018

30 Sunday Sep 2018

Posted by Paul Bigland in Hs2, Politics, StopHs2

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Hs2, Politics, StopHs2

It’s the end of September and it’s time to have a look at the StopHs2 ‘campaign’ social media stats. I’ve analysed the August numbers here.

Firstly, let’s get some context. There’s 6,567,433 folk who live in the 63 constituencies that Hs2 will run through. That’s a lot of people. Now, if the majority of them are up in arms about Hs2 you’d expect the sole surviving ‘national’ anti Hs2 group to have a large social media following, wouldn’t you?

In fact, their following is tiny. They have just 6180 on Twitter, or 0.094% of the 6.5 million

stophs2 twitter

On Facebook they only have 8604 followers, or 0.13% of 6.5 million. So, as you can see, they’re not exactly setting social media on fire. But those headline numbers are only part of the story. How many of those followers actually engage with them through comments, retweets aor likes? How many actually help ‘spread the word’?

Bugger all, as the next set of numbers shows. Here’s a look at every Tweet and Facebook post that StopHs2 have made in September with a number of people who’ve responded up to today. Lets have a look at Twitter first:

hs2 twitter

 

Their ‘best’ day for retweets was the 24th September, with a ‘massive’ 61 – or 0.98% of all their followers. So, not even 1% of their followers are spreading the word on Twitter, which tell you a lot about how active those followers are! Then again, if you can be arsed to look up who their followers actually are (it’s boring, trust me) you find a mish-mash of the far-right, a few greens, lots of anonymous accounts and the few who you think ‘what? Why?’ Here’s some examples.

followers 6

So, it’s a rabble, not a serious campaign. Nor will it influence anyone who matters. 91 of them follow me and I can see that a lot of them are people who’re just there to see what nonsense Stophs2 are spouting, they’re not actually supporters of the campaign. If Stophs2 are relying on Twitter to get their message out, they’ve failed miserably.

Now let’s go and have a look at Facebook.

stophs2 facebook

Their ‘best’ result was on the 6th September when they posted pictures of Chiltern viaduct designs and 348 people shared it. That’s just 4% of all their followers. Most of the time they don’t even make it into triple figures and have less than a 1% response rate. Now, does that sound like a growing campaign to you? Mind you when you see some of the responses it becomes clear that many of their followers have – how shall I put this – a tenuous grasp on reality. Have a look at these ones.

hs2 fb

And…

fb2

Meanwhile, their ‘relaunched’ campaign is due to hold a protest outside the Tory party conference which should be fun as their last one at the Labour conference was a disaster! I’ll keep you posted…

Stophs2? Give over…

26 Wednesday Sep 2018

Posted by Paul Bigland in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Politics, StopHs2

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Hs2, Politics, StopHs2

It’s the party conference season once more, which means StopHs2’s inflatable elephant is dug out of storage, checked for punctures and wheeled out for utterly pointless ‘demonstrations’ of Stophs2 impotence outside the events.

Gone are StopHs2’s ‘glory’ days when they could afford a stand inside the conferences and find enough volunteers to staff it. In those days you’d get Penny Gaines tweeting that everyone they talked to was solidly against Hs2 and that *really* every MP (Labour or Tory) privately opposed the project.

It was all tosh of course. Now the money and supporters have dried up, Hs2’s being built and it’s all rather pointless really.

A final effort to save the campaign from oblivion was launched a couple of weeks ago by one of the surviving ‘action’ groups on phase 1 of the route. Not that you’d notice as it’s been yet another in a long-line of damp squibs. The meeting in Balsall Common in Warwickshire. Here’s a couple of excerpts from the email that did the rounds

” We hope to attract members from both the South and the North to this meeting. We recognise that most action groups on Phase1 have faded away and this meeting is called by Richard Lloyd of Berkswell and Archie Taylor of Burton Green. We will offer coffee and biscuits but refreshments are available at next door Tesco’s.
We have a glimmer of a chance to stop the whole project as costs escalate and Brexit approaches while those on Phase 2 are perhaps in a stronger position”

“Glimmer”? Talk about optimistic! The email goes on…

“But we also have to plan for the future. Are any of the Northern Groups planning to lobby the Labour Conference at Liverpool, a week later, on the 23rd? If they are, perhaps, a few of us can help with the pamphlets. As a Labour member, I intend to write to all Labour MPs in the first week of September but articles don’t always get to the MP. But if we can give out leaflets at Liverpool, we can certainly play the northern card with the east to west alternative. If we do have volunteers to leaflet, I might go up to the Conference myself.

Perhaps the Conservative Conference at Birmingham on September 30th is more significant and accessible. Again it would be great if we can get people along. Similarly we can work on leaflets before our meeting.

I would appreciate if you can come to our meeting, or you are ready to go to Liverpool to contact me. I hope people will make this meeting. It will be great to see people from the past. It is going to be very difficult to stop it but we have a chance if we join together. I will give more details about the meeting at a later date”

So, the ‘new’ plan is to re-run the same old tactics, only this time with less money, less people and less interest! Here’s the agenda for the meeting;

stophs2 2 agenda

Note that the other national groups AGAHST and Hs2aa didn’t bother turning up. That’s because they exist in name only. Their written ‘updates’ will probably have been as blank as the Governments benefits of Brexit! AGAHST folded years ago and Hs2aa haven’t been heard from since the summer of 2016!

I haven’t seen a copy of any conclusions from the meeting or list of how many attended, but I not that it’s had no media coverage or mention on the surviving groups Facebook pages or websites other than on from a Groups on the Leeds route which described it as a ‘good’ meeting and err, that’s it!

So, what’s been the result of the relaunch. Well, yesterday a couple of people did make it up to Liverpool with the inflatable elephant and duly set it up outside. How many of them were there? It’s impossible to tell as the only picture Stophs2 tweeted out doesn’t contain a soul!

elele

By this morning the tweet had amassed a grand total of 29 retweets and 39 likes from their 6175 Twitter followers, which tells you all you need to know really…

There is one video, which is an ‘interview’ of a very scruffy and dishevelled looking Joe Rukin, spouting his usual polemical bluster, but no-one else is in sight!

At #Lab18 Conference @joerukin from @stophs2 says it’s not too late to stop the project @ITVCentral pic.twitter.com/Fg3MBP5PWC

— Alison Mackenzie (@Alison1mackITV) September 25, 2018

Contrast this pathetic performance with what was going on inside the Labour conference. Firstly, this tweet from train builder Bombardier showing some of their young apprentices meeting the Shadow Chancellor.

bombardier

Or this, from Siemens. Shame about the quality of the picture, but you get the gist,

sie

Or this…

prescott

To say that Rukin and Co have been outclassed and outgunned is an understatement! If this is a campaign that’s been relaunched, then it slipped straight off the stocks and did a submarine impression! I don’t expect any better at the Conservative conference. If I have the time I might even pop along so that we can get some proper pictures to gauge their support by.

Meanwhile, one last word about Liverpool. This is a proper demonstration Joe – oh, and look, that’s your very lonely elephant in the background!

sodem.PNG

sod 2.PNG

Stop Hs2? I had to laugh!…

12 Wednesday Sep 2018

Posted by Paul Bigland in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, StopHs2, Uncategorized

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Hs2, StopHs2

This morning there was a Parliamentary debate on Hs2 which had been organised by Bill Cash, the MP for Stone (on the Hs2 route in Staffs). Cash is, how shall we say – not entirely connected with the real world. Not only is he an ardent Brexit supporter (and we all know just how well that’s going), he’s also been rather creative in the past with his expenses.

Still, the debate he secured this morning kicked off promptly. It was meant to help ‘revitalise’ the campaign against Hs2 as it followed on from another opinion poll commissioned by the Daily Express that showed a ‘majority’ of people oppose Hs2.

There was only one problem

The anti Hs2 ‘campaign’ (and I use that word loosely) is so short of political support that hardly any MPs turned up to the debate! I counted 5 that actually spoke to criticise Hs2. Cash delivered a long ramble which was nothing new, it was just Cash rehashed. You might as well have played one of his old speeches on a monitor and saved the old boy the bother. The usual suspects followed, the most prominent of which was the MP for Chesham and Amersham, Cheryl Gillan. Embarrassment followed embarrassment when it became clear that the anti MPs were matched and indeed surpassed by MPs who’d turned up to speak in Favour of HS2. These included Sir Robert Symes MP, the former Chair of the phase 1 Hybrid Bill Cttee, Graham Stringer MP (former leader of Manchester City Council), and of course the under secretary of state for transport, Nusrat Ghani MP, who wound up the whole sorry shambles by pointing out the political arithmetic by highlighting the overwhelming numbers of MPs and Lords who supported HS2 compared to those who opposed. In short, it was a humiliation.

Here’s a couple of pictures of the ‘packed’ meeting room. You’ll notice that the gallery outnumbers the MPs

debate

minister

So, what of the Daily Express poll? Well, it’s a gauge of the number of people who’ll grumble about Government spending, but apart from that it’s worthless. If you inserted a multiple choice question that said “OK, so what are you actually going to do about HS2” you know what the answer would be: nothing – as we’ve seen from hard evidence over the years in local and general elections (much to UKIP’s chagrin). It’s just not an issue that will make people change who they vote for.

Another Stophs2 (fake) storm in a teacup!

17 Friday Aug 2018

Posted by Paul Bigland in Anti Hs2 mob, Carillion, Fake News, Hs2, Lazy journalism

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Fake News, Hs2, Lazy journalism, StopHs2

Sometimes it’s fake news that causes problems, sometimes it’s lazy journalism and other times it’s people who are either utterly incapable of reading and understanding factual material or who twist it to suit their own ends.

The latest storm in a teacup over Hs2 has elements of all this. Here’s the straight story as reported by Rail Technology Magazine.

“The former boss of Carillion’s UK infrastructure business is set to take over Balfour Beatty Vinci to lead its HS2 joint venture.” His name is Mark Davies, which is pretty easy to remember. He’s had a 30 plus year career in the Civils industry and joined Carillion after its acquisition of Alfred McAlpine in 2004. His correct title was Managing Director – Carillion Infrastructure, one of the divisions of the company.

As Carillion imploded in spectacular and controversial fashion, Mr Davies has obviously had some time on his hands, leading him to being recruited by the Joint Venture.

This is where the fun starts. In a combination of lazy journalism, mischief making and downright lies, Mr Davies has been spun as the ‘boss’ of Carillion, taking over at Hs2 itself. It’s complete tosh of course, but those who’re opposed to Hs2 are spinning like tops to make out this is the case. There’s a couple of rather major flaws with their story. Mr Davies was never the ‘boss’ of Carillion. He was never even on the Board of Directors!

The ‘boss’ (or bosses to be more precise) of Carillion when it collapsed were the chairman, Philip Green, along with Keith Cochrane who became its Interim Chief Executive on the 10th July 2017, a position he retained until the company went into liquidation in January 2018.

Whilst the Chairman and the Board of Directors have been quizzed by Parliamentary Committees and been criticised for their actions. I’ve not seen anything to suggest Mr Davies has been accused of anything. Not that this has stopped Hs2 antis trying to smear by association – as usual!

As for the ludicrous claims that he’s been made ‘boss’ of Hs2 –  I despair! He’s the MD of a joint venture that’s won an HS2 construction contract, nothing more, nothing less.

Still, facts eh?

 

 

More on the Gilligoon fake furore…

23 Monday Jul 2018

Posted by Paul Bigland in Hs2, Rail Investment, StopHs2

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Hs2, Rail Investment, StopHs2

Predictably, yesterday’s story (for that’s what it was) in the Sunday Times has caused the usual predictable outcry from Hs2 antis that the project should be cancelled. Equally predictably, non of them have bothered looking at the timeline of events (including a general election) that demonstrate this was never going to happen.

Not only that, but no-one’s bothered looking at the latest IPA Annual Report on Major Projects for 2017-18. Because if they had they’d have realised how Gilligan’s story focussing as it does on an outdated report really is today’s chip paper.

Firstly, let’s remind ourselves what the DCA ratings system is.

DCA ratings

The IPA report looks at several rail projects, not just HS2. These are;

Crossrail (moved from Green to Amber)

Thameslink (moved from Green to Amber)

Midland Mainline programme (remains on Amber)

Hs2 (remains on Amber/Red)

Great Western route modernisation (remains on Amber/Red)

North of England programme (remains on Amber/Red)

East-West rail (remains on Amber/Red)

Southwest route capacity (remains on Amber/Red)

Rail franchising programme (moves from Amber to Amber/Red)

Intercity Express Programme (moves from Amber to Red)

Eh? Hold on, the IEP programme, which is delivering new Hitachi built trains every week to GWR and soon to LNER ‘appears to be ‘unachievable’? Tell that to the passengers who’re riding on those trains!

DG302957. 800304. Bristol Temple Meads. 18.7.18

One of the ‘unachievable’ IEP programme trains (left) alongside one of the venerable HSTs they’re replacing, seen at Bristol Temple Meads earlier this month.

Of course, sensible, pragmatic people will take the IPA report for what it is, a guide, not gospel. But that’s not the anti Hs2 mob, obviously! The truth is, Hs2 has remained at Amber/Red now for several years. Looking back at the programme’s progress and timescale I doubt it will move from that for several more years (despite what then Transport Minister Patrick McLoughlin once claimed) especially as there’s still the final Phase 2b Hybrid Bill to make its way through Parliament.  Then there’s the construction contracts to be let for phases 2a and 2b. What is interesting is that despite all the claims from those opposing Hs2, the project’s never moved into the red category – which (if all the scaremongering over increased costs was true) you’d have expected it to.

Meanwhile, progress on Hs2 continues. On a project of such a vast scale there’s bound to be bumps along the road, but what’s clear is that those bumps are being ironed out. The next couple of years will be exciting times for the project. Away from all the hype and hyperbole, work continues every day, preparing the ground for the main civils work on phase 1 to start (just have a look around the Euston area to see that). In Parliament the Phase 2a Hybrid Bill Committee are making steady progress. There’s a complete absence of anti Hs2 groups gumming up proceedings this time as Hs2aa has folded and StopHs2 don’t even get a look-in. The Phase 2a bill is expected to get Royal Assent by the end of 2019, then we move on to the final Phase 2b bill. The project still maintains cross-party support, so there’s nothing to stop Hs2. There’s no national anti Hs2 campaign anymore, so barring a major political earthquake, the project’s unstoppable.

 

 

 

 

More anti Hs2 Gilligoonery in the Times today

22 Sunday Jul 2018

Posted by Paul Bigland in Andrew Gilligan, Hs2, StopHs2

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Andrew Gilligan, Hs2, StopHs2

Today’s Sunday Times carries yet another attempt at a hatchet job on Hs2 by one Andrew ‘transcription error’ Gilligan, a man who’s churned out stuff trying to discredit Hs2 as long as the project’s been going. Of course, none of his fanciful claims have come to pass, but that’s never stopped either him, or the gullibility of Hs2 anti’s who continue to grasp at every straw he throws them.

The latest stuff is that Gilligoon has supposedly been passed a copy of a report, dated December 2016, written by Paul Mansell, an IPA adviser embedded full-time in HS2. As usual, we have to take Gilligoon’s word for this and what its contents say as none of the report is reproduced in his article. Instead, we have to rely on snippets written in quotation marks. Such as,

“The assessment describes the scheme as “fundamentally flawed”, in a “precarious position”. And, the project is “highly likely” to go as much as 60% over budget and cost “more than £80bn”

So, it’s the usual cut and paste job by Gilligoon, where we have to rely on the great man’s reputation for accuracy and integrity. At least (for once), his article doesn’t use the standard lazy journalists phrase and claim that the report is ‘damning’.

The rest of the article is the usual mish-mash of previously reported speculation that’s been added to pad it out and try and make it seem more than it is. So, we get a repetition of the ConHome kite flying that Michael Gove’s been canvassing opinions that if he becomes PM, scrapping Hs2 would be a vote winner – ignoring the fact Gove’s just as  likely to end up in prison for his role in the vote Leave illegality as he is in No 10!

We also get treated to recycling the story that Hs2’s land purchase costs are billions over budget and – just for good measure – the story that Michael Byng has calculated that Hs2 will cost north of £100bn.

So, it’s the usual speculative numbers bullshit bingo! For years we’ve had Hs2 antis throw around invented numbers, each one more fanciful than the last. We’ve had £60, 80, 100, 123, 150 and even £200bn presented as the ‘true cost’ of Hs2 over the past 9 years!

Meanwhile, what’s happened in the real world since this report is meant to have been written (December 2016)? Here’s a timeline.

23 February 2017: Hs2 phase 1 gets Royal Assent.

8th June 2017: A general election. The one where ConHome tried to pretend that the Tories were serious about dropping Hs2!

17th July 2017: £6.6bn of Hs2 construction contracts were let. On the same day the Bill for hs2 Phase 2a was introduced into Parliament.

30th January 2018: The phase 2a bill passes 2nd reading with a massive majority of 295 to 12. The bill is now proceeding through Parliament.

Looking at events since December 2016 it’s clear that the Government has had several opportunities to pull the plug on Hs2. They haven’t. But hey, why let facts get in the way? Andrew Gilligan never has!

 

 

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