To say the tiny bunch of self-appointed ‘eco-warriors’ have lost the plot in these troubled times is putting it mildly. Right now they’ve deployed weapons-grade hypocrisy and rank stupidity in equal measures. Just take a look at this video.
Literally nothing they claim in this video is true. The irony of all their claims about being assaulted? They’re being watched by half a dozen police officers (who really do have much better things to do with their time right now). Said officers just might know a bit more about the law than these protesters with their histrionics.
Their hypocritical claims that the HS2 security workers are ‘breaking the law’ by not keeping 2 metres apart? There is no such law (it’s advice that doesn’t apply in this situation).
Oh, and watch serially failed Green Party Candidate Mark Keir getting right into the faces of the security people as he more and more frequently loses his rag (a not uncommon sight nowadays, how long before he’s nicked for threatening behaviour I wonder)? This is the man I highlighted in my latest crazy anti Hs2 campaigner blog as the ultimate hypocrite. Social distancing my arse! This is the clown who was berating men for not keeping their distance yet here he can be seen pressed up against them, covering them in his spittle as he rants and rages!
The ultimate irony? Without these increasingly futile and idiotic protests none of the police or security guards would need to be there and several million pounds of taxpayers money could be spent elsewhere. On things like the NHS perhaps?
It’s time those who’re financially supporting these idiotic antics by ineffective barrack-room lawyers and faux ‘eco-warriors’ (have you seen the mess their ‘protest’ camps make in woodland?) take a good look at what they’re funding and the utter pointlessness of it. Because this isn’t saving woodland, or the planet. Exactly the opposite in fact.
Because, without Hs2, we simply don’t have the rail capacity for the future to get people & freight off roads and cut transport Co2 emissions to tackle Climate Change. Stopping HS2 isn’t ‘green’, it’s exactly the opposite. These people can’t see the woods for the trees.
I’m returning to an old topic to take a look at the state of play with the campaign to stop HS2. The Government’s announcement that HS2 was going ahead in its entirety and the obvious commitment and enthusiasm for the project from Prime Minister Johnson has really knocked the remaining wind out of the sails of those opposed to HS2.
The sole remaining national group (StopHs2) which in reality is just two people (Joe Rukin in Kenilworth and Penny Gaines in Bournemouth) is to all intent and purpose redundant. There’s no point to a political campaign to stop HS2 anymore as it’s painfully obvious there’s no support, exactly the opposite. Many of those who’ve opposed HS2 in the past have accepted the futility of continuing their opposition. A good example is former Minister Andrea Leadsom, the MP for South Northamptonshire, who recently Tweeted a video where she said her focus now is on getting the best deals for her constituents from HS2 Ltd.
With the collapse of the political element StopHs2 have sod all to report as they’re not actually doing anything themselves. Both they and what’s left of the ‘action group’ network are redundant. Many ‘action’ group members were elderly, middle-class homeowners worried about their house prices. They’re the last people you’re going to catch traipsing around muddy fields or chaining themselves to bulldozers. A few of them are still fulminating about HS2 on social media, but there’s been a noticeable drop-off there too.
Apart from tedious tweets about every time HS2 is (or isn’t) mentioned on ‘BBC Question Time’ or sending a stream of pointless commentary and spin about someone being questioned about HS2 in a Parliamentary Ctte Penny Gaines might as well not exist. Joe Rukin isn’t much better. His only usefulness now is in throwing his weight (resist the puns, Ed) behind those protesting on the ground at one of the handful of protest camps on Phase 1 although even those appearances are becoming fewer. It can’t be long now before StopHs2 finally folds as it’s completely redundant.
For once in his life, Joe Rukin is right…
Nowadays most of the real running against HS2 is made by the mixed bag of people who gather under the ‘Extinction Rebellion’ banner and occasionally attend one of the protest camps on the Phase 1 route. These can be divided into three categories.
1. The ‘hardliners’: Those who spend their time living at one of the camps for at least several days. Most are self-employed. They return home every so often to do some work to top up their money supply. They fit the image of the ‘eco-warrior’ of old. Those of us who’re old enough and remember the days of the free-festivals and the ‘convoy’ will know exactly the type of people I mean. You have to admire their commitment but they are woefully misinformed about the issues. There’s a sociological study for someone’s PhD to be had here – and it would make really interesting reading!
2. Route Dwellers: Those who live on the route who have the time and inclination to protest and will turn up when they can. The vast majority seem to be middle-class women. Many seem to be using ‘green’ issues as a fig-leaf for Nimbyism. Most will have absolutely no history of concern for environmental issues before HS2 came along.
3. The ‘good timers’: These are a mix of people who’ll turn up to an organised event, especially if there’s a celebrity name behind it like Chris Packham, or those who’d turn up to the Harvil Rd camp of a weekend to party and get pissed/stoned before going home again. Both are equally useless at stopping HS2 as they don’t actually disrupt any construction activity. There’s one such event this weekend and it’ll be very interesting to see how many actually bother turning up.
What has been obvious from social media is that people haven’t exactly been queuing up to go as this shows.
In the end, the few people going are car-sharing. They couldn’t even fill a minibus, much less a coach!
Quite what this little gathering will achieve is open to question. They’ll have their little ramble, then go away – then HS2 will move in soon afterwards to begin work. Any protesters who remain in the area will be removed as HS2 has applied for a court order which will be heard next week on the 17th March. It names two people, Joe Rukin and Matthew Bishop, plus ‘persons unknown’. The order is to restrain future trespass, effectively making the named areas no-go areas to protesters and nipping any more protests in the bud as such actions will be illegal. This injunction will form a legal template for other areas.
Few of the protesters are willing to risk criminal convictions, so the injunctions will act as a huge deterrent, leaving the hardliners out on a limb. That number’s dwindling already as one of them, a woman called Sarah Green, has been noticeably absent from events of late. The number of people who fit into this group is less than a couple of dozen. Most noticeable are serially failed Green Party Candidate Mark Keir. Alan Woodward, Matthew Bishop, Elizabeth Cairns and Sarah Snooks.
They’re all fighting a rearguard action as it is because their numbers are so small. They’re an inconvenience to HS2 rather than a credible threat. This fact is borne out by all the videos they post on their various Facbook pages or YouTube sites. I’ve never quite understood how a video showing a single protester utterly failing to stop any work at all is meant to act as an encouragement to anyone! Here’s an example from Alan ‘Budgee’ Woodward on YouTube.
Stop Hs2 when you can’t even format a video properly?
A cynic might wonder how many of these videos serve any other purpose than narcissism. Even some of the protesters seem to be realising that it’s all very well providing hours of voyeuristic material for your Farcebook ‘friends’ or YouTube followers but their support very rarely materialises in the real world. It may give you a feeling of self-importance, but they don’t matter a damn when it comes to actually trying to stop Hs2. It’s the same when it comes to raising money, as this appeal shows.
Whichever metric you look at it’s clear the campaign’s collapsing. Here’s today’s numbers for their latest petition on the Government’s website.
After two weeks only having 2700 signatures is the lowest amount they’ve ever had in 10 years…
Notice that only HS2 phase 1 features on the petition? Contrast that to this map of their 2017 petition when they had over 26,000 signatures.
The phase 2 routes are conspicuous by their absence! Rother Valley, the only phase 2 constituency that got into four figures has only got 28 signatures so far this time.
So, politically their campaign’s dead. It’s also hopeless on the ground as the numbers turning up are tiny and ineffective which only leaves the legal angle and antis have pinned their hopes on Celebrity environmentalist Chris Packham’s legal case. But there’s one rather large problem. Packham hasn’t even got permission to proceed with it. Before he does he needs to convince a judge that his argument has merit and there’s a case to answer. If he falls at that hurdle, it’s toast. Even if a judge does let him proceed it won’t stop Hs2 in the slightest as the process HS2 went through to get approval is very different to the legal argument over Heathrow. Watch this case go nowhere…
UPDATE.
So, how did today’s token demonstration in Kenilworth go? Badly, although those who took part try and pretend otherwise! Looking at the videos from the event (and being generous) I’d say that around 250 turned up to posture and parade. They weren’t actually stopping anything of course. It was purely symbolic. The problem? Over 2.5 million folk live on phase 1 of HS2, so 250 is politically and statistically insignificant. The only message it sends is – “is that it?”
Ugh! Up at sparrowfart again getting ready to go to Birmingham. This morning I’m getting a lift to the station because I don’t want another soaking! The weather here is still what’s best described as ‘changeable’. I’m heading for the 06:44 from Halifax, so let’s see how today goes…
07:00.
I’m now on my way to Manchester aboard the 06:44 which is worked by a fully-functioning CAF built Class 195. We have heating, PIS and even the wifi which I’m using to type this. They’re lovely trains when they’re like this and a real step-change from what we’re used to.
It’s a beautiful sunny morning in the Calder Valley although it’s a chilly 4 degrees according to the trains info screens. It’s a bit of a contrast to London yesterday when I basked in 14 degree sunshine!
07:14.
Having crossed the Pennines and called at Littleborough we’re trundling towards Rochdale at reduced speed. Looking up from my laptop for a moment I was just in time to catch sight of a trio of deer feeding in a meadow, their white tails attracted my attention, otherwise I’d have missed them as they were standing stock-still whilst the train passed.
07:18.
We’ve arrived at Rochdale where around a dozen early-bird commuters are waiting for our arrival. I was surprised to see so few, but there’s another Manchester bound service in the bay platform which seems to have a good crowd on it. No doubt it’ll be following behind shortly.
07:58.
After my usual 20 minute sprint across central Manchester from Victoria to Piccadilly I’m back in the warmth aboard Cross-Country’s 08:05 to Paignton. We’ve luxury this morning as this is an 8-car formation. Even the Conductor is boasting that there’s “lots of room this morning, so make the most of it”. I assume that this must be an aberration!
There is an irony in me travelling to Birmingham to see HS2 archeological work in this fashion. This journey between two of our premier regional cities will take 1 hour 28 minutes. Voyagers – be they four or five car – are less than an ideal offering. HS2 (when it’s completed) will cut the journey time by more than half to just 40 minutes. Plus, it’ll be on a 400 metre long, modern intercity train that will make a Voyager look primitive in comparison.
08:29.
We’ve just left Macclesfield. I don’t know about the rear Voyager, but this front set is filling up nicely! There’s lots of business travellers aboard. In the airline seats opposite me two young professionals have their papers spread out on the meagre backseat tables and are preparing themselves for the meeting they’re heading for. Others are using their time to catch up on the budget news in copies of the ‘Metro’ but on one table ahead I can spy an unopened bottle of Prosecco with four plastic cups atop it – so there’s business mixed with pleasure on this coach as I assume these people are race-goers!
08:47.
Bugger, we’re just leaving Stoke-on-Trent and the weather’s changed dramatically. We’re now blessed with thunderously grey skies and it’s chucking it down! Please let this clear before Birmingham…
09:20.
We’ve just left Wolverhampton and the penny’s finally dropped as to why this train is a double set! There were queues of well-dressed people waiting for us to arrive and I suddenly realised that we call at Cheltenham – where the races are on! Now the fact the catering crew were heavily advertising what deals they have on Prosecco or gin and tonic at this hour of the day makes sense!
16:13.
Apologies for the delay in updates but it’s been a very hectic few hours. Our little group got to the HS2 site at Curzon St for 10:00, donned our PPE, had a site induction, then went to visit the site of the London & Birmingham’s locomotive roundhouse, which was built in 1837. You’ll be able to read about my full visit in the future edition of RAIL magazine, but here’s a taster of how the site looks, with the remains of the turntable pit in the middle and 15 pit roads radiating from it. Everyone was surprised just how extensive the remains are, not just of the roundhouse, but other structures as well. Thankfully, the rain we’d had earlier held off and we had sunshine interspersed with cloud – which was just as well because there was a bitter wind blowing across the exposed site that made you thankful for the layers of PPE you had to wear!
The visit took several hours as we were given an extensive tour of the site of the roundhouse and the remains of the goods shed with its wagon turntables still in situ. Afterwards we were shown round the last building standing. The grade 1 listed station building and former boardroom of the London and Birmingham railway.
A selfie with Tim Dunn and Gareth Dennis taken by Gareth (which is why I’m in the middle!)
Afterwards I went to have a look at a modern transport innovation. The extension to the Midlands Metro tram network, the first to use dual-powered trams that don’t have to use overhead lines in the heart of the city so as to preserve the architectural heritage of the area.
Look – no wires (or pantographs)! A pair of trams pass outside the new Town Hall stop.
17:18.
Homeward bound! I left Birmingham on the 16:57 Cross-Country Voyager bound for Manchester. Unsurprisingly, it’s packed even though this is a 5-car. This time of day it acts as a fast commuter train between Birmingham and Wolverhampton, after which the vestibules empty out and some seats become free. With the advent of HS2 I’d like to see these trains withdrawn and the twice-hourly paths used for more commuter services for local passengers whilst long-distance passengers can transfer to a faster, more comfortable service from Curzon St so that we have an inter-city service worth its name.
19:05.
I’m now on the final leg home. After abandoning the Voyager at Piccadilly I retraced my steps to Victoria to catch a train back across the Pennines. I’m now on a 2-car Class 195 heading for Halifax. It’s not as busy as I’d have expected but I honestly can’t tell if that’s due to people not travelling through fear of the Coronavirus or the fact some folks may have left work earlier.
There’s certainly plenty of panic about. I had chance to scan the media earlier and saw the news about the Tango’d Buffoon in the White House banning all travel (except via the UK) to the USA for a month. An already very weak stock market which has suffered many days of losses went into complete meltdown and shed over 10% of it’s remaining value, propelling it into its worst decline since 1987. The spectre of another global financial crash is starting to rear its ugly head…
21:25.
I’m finally home in the warm and dry, having taken the sensible precaution of bringing a brolly with me today, although they’re often of little use up here in the Pennines due to the fact the wind rips ’em to shreds within a few minutes. Right now I’ve begun the task of loading some of the past two days worth of pictures to my Zenfolio website. If you follow this link, you’ll be able to see which galleries they’ve been added to.
Tomorrow I have a day working from home, trying to catch up on picture editing, paperwork and communications, although there might still be time for some blogging, it certainly won’t be rolling…
Some people never learn. In this case it’s the dwindling bunch of Nimbys who still oppose HS2 and think that their sense of entitlement somehow trumps the transport infrastructure needs of the UK, especially in this time of climate change, where we really do need the rail capacity to get folks out of planes and cars and onto carbon-neutral trains.
Despite everything that’s happened in the past few months, what with the Conservatives gaining a solid Parliamentary majority and half the MPs who previously opposed HS2 losing their seats since 2014 – the tiny band who fly the flag of ‘StopHs2’ haven’t learned a thing in a decade.
Short of any real plan, far less a cunning one, they’ve fallen back on the same failed tactics that have never stood them in good stead – even when there was lots more of them!
They’ve started another petition…
Because petitions have worked so well for them in the past, obviously!
Here’s a link to the latest one, which has got off to a less than stratospheric start (as I scribble this it has 867 signatures after 3 days). It’s been started by one Elizabeth Williams, whom I’m assuming is the same ‘Lizzie’ Williams who started StopHs2 until she had to hand over the reins of the groups as her behaviour was in danger of imploding it.
Why they still bother with these petitions is a total mystery as all they ever do is three things – get less and less signatures each time, prove the fact that the vast majority of folk signing them live in the 63 constituencies Hs2 passes through – and that the majority of those signing live on Phase 1! Here’s the petition map from today which (as ever) shows that – by total co-incidence – the most signatures are from constituencies on Phase 1. You can imagine my surprise….
This petition will do exactly the same as all the others. It’s doomed to failure from the start. It also shows that – despite have run several of these pointless exercises in the past – they’ve never actually twigged their limitations. Just say for the sake of argument they get 100,oo signatures (hell will freeze over first). What happens then? How will that stop HS2? It won’t. Here’s what it says on the front page of each petition.
“Considered for debate”. Debate, not vote. There is no vote. The petition is toothless. Mind you, even if there was a vote HS2 would win it hands down with a huge majority as the project has cross-party support! It’s an utterly pointless exercise.
Still, it does do one thing. It gives me a few numbers to crunch and empirical evidence of the weakness of the StopHs2 campaign. So, it will be interesting to compare it with the results of 2019, 2018 or even some of their earlier efforts.
Meanwhile, in the real world, construction of HS2 ramps up…
Don’t expect many updates on the progress (or rather lack of) of this petition. I may pop in once a month just to see how badly it’s doing, but it’s really not worth wasting more time on than that.
Sometimes, you really have to wonder. I’ve been occupied scanning old slides again this evening as Dawn’s busy on a Reiki course, so whilst I’ve been waiting for the scanner to perform its (slow) miracles I’ve been keeping an eye on social media – which is when I spotted this gem..
Seriously? F**k me, who knew that for thousands of years people have used various (mostly humane) methods to deter birds? Have the RSPB never heard of Scarecrows, or the farmers that set off shotgun cartridges on a timer – or Network Rail patrolling some of its stations like this? “Ethically dubious”?
If this is the desperate intellectual level some of our environmental groups are reduced to, you do have to start asking – what’s the point of you? What problems are you really going to solve with rubbish like this – and why on earth should we take you seriously?
Needless to say, it wasn’t long before arch HS2 critic Chris Packham piled in in his own unthinking fashion with this tweet.
Holding nature in ‘contempt’ by using birds to scare off birds? Talk about mental gymnastics! The sad thing is that knee-jerk rubbish like this only makes it easier for people to dismiss environmental groups as cranks. It gives ammunition to the opposition, nothing more, but nothing that Packham comes out with surprises me anymore. Let’s face it, a man who flies people half-way around the world on expensive bird-watching tours of the Gambia (for which he earns a pretty penny) trying to stop people in the UK from being able to travel on a carbon-neutral railway is the height of hypocrisy.
I’ll look forward to the next chapter of this madness, the RSPCA starting a campaign against people buying cats to scare away mice perhaps? For God’s sake – no-one tell them about Felix, the Huddersfield station cat!
Yep, today’s the start of a new month, not that there’s been much of a change, as we’ve had yet another storm warning! The only discernible difference is that the days are starting to get longer. I’ve spent much of the weekend scanning yet more old railway slides from 1990, which you can find in this gallery on my Zenfolio website. The latest batch of 60 are from Bristol and also the Tinsley loco depot open day, held on a dismal Saturday in September. Here’s a sample, featuring Bath Rd depot in Bristol – another place that’s long-gone.
BR Class 47 locomotives dominate this view of Bristol Bath Rd depot as the shed provided motive power for cross-country services from the South-West up to Birmingham and beyond, as well as passenger locomotives for the main line to London Paddington as well as servicing freight engines and local diesel multiple units.
As I mentioned in my last blog. I’m back in Bristol tomorrow for an ACoRP (Association of Community Rail Partnerships) conference. The programme shows that it’s going to be a busy event spread over two days but no doubt I’ll have some time to blog/tweet about what’s going on, as well as catch up with some old friends from the world of community railways.
To get to Bristol in time means the pair of us are up at sparrow-fart in the morning, so this isn’t going to be a long blog. I’d hoped to have time to compose one about the collapse of the StopHs2 campaign, but that can wait for another day! It’s not as if there’s anything going on with them anyway. They’ve been very quiet on social media since the Government announced the fact HS2’s been given the green light. Mind you, they’ve also been inactive in the real world too. Their ‘direct action’ campaign at Harvil Rd and Cubbington wood has been completely ineffective at stopping HS2. The penny finally seems to be dropping that they’ll never have the numbers of people on the ground they need. There’s only a couple of dozen regulars and a few ‘weekend warriors’ – who’re especially useless and HS2 Ltd don’t normally work at weekends so there’s nothing to stop! The fact that having a bunch of voyeurs’ watching you make fools of yourself on Facebook isn’t going to stop Hs2 seems to be slowly sinking in too – hence this rather revealing post of one of their Facebook pages.
I’ll blog about this in detail when I have the time. Right now it’s time to pack a suitcase…
Finally, after weeks of waiting and all sorts of political shenanigans’ and uncertainties the announcement has finally been made. HS2 is going ahead.
To be honest, it wasn’t much of a secret, or a surprise. The final decision’s been slowly leaked to the media over a number of weeks – as have dissenting views (not that they mattered).
Today, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the news. To be fair announced is hardly the right word. Those who thought the Government were ashamed of their decision were completely wrong-footed. This was no apologetic slipping out of unpopular news, this was a full-bore celebration with a fanfare and 21 gun salute. Johnson stood at the dispatch box and made a meal of it. This was bombastic, bellicose Boris in full flow. And, for once, he actually seemed to have some idea what he was talking about, because he wasn’t announcing vague plans for yet another bridge. This was the culmination of 10 years of planning, re-planning and co-operation between people on a huge scale. There was plenty of detail to be had – and Johnson made the most of it. Why wouldn’t he? He has an 80 seat majority and HS2 has huge cross-party support. It’s simply not a contentious issue and he desperately needs something like this to celebrate to take everyone’s mind off what comes next in the EU negotiations.
You could see that the penny was dropping with some of his back-benchers (old and new) as it became clear his Government were going full-tilt for HS2. Those ‘newbies’ who have ambitions but who represent constituencies on the route are starting to realise that opposition to HS2 could severely limit your career – especially when opposition is futile. Of course, for a few of the old hands like Chesham and Amersham MP Cheryl Gillan – whose career is already over – it’s not so much of a blow, but then she didn’t even bother turning up. The announcement also contained another gem. As I predicted in a blog back in August last year, Phase 2b of HS2 is to be re-aligned and merged with ‘Northern Powerhouse Rail’ (always an unwieldy name) to be rebranded “High Speed North”.
This is clever on a number of levels.
For a start, HS2 is now the project that’s already got the go-ahead and it’s a railway between London and Crewe (because phase 1 and 2a have been merged). It isolates the StopHs2 ‘campaign’ from the North. Why? Because the anti HS2 campaign was always based on phase 1, the railway from London – Birmingham. It’s where their grassroots and groups (like Hs2aa and StopHs2) were.
What do they have on the rebadged “High Speed North”? Nothing.
They have a tiny bunch of MPs who’re opposed – most of whom are newly elected and easily neutered as they have ambitions – and little else. In contrast, the North has massive political and business support for what was HS2 but is now clearly a Northern project that will deliver far more than HS2 could do in isolation. Don’t forget that 50% of the new ‘Northern Powerhouse Rail’ tracks would have been HS2 tracks. So, how many Northern MPs are now going to be brave (or foolhardy) enough to say “I oppose HSN” And why would Southern Tory MPs who’ve been outflanked on HS2 phase 1 put their own government at risk at the next election by opposing HSN when they no longer have a dog in the fight?
I could write more as I’ve not even touched on the Oakervee review yet, but I’m going to save that for another day. All I’ll say is that the review has made fools of much of the mainstream media. Why? Because they fell for the spin and briefings from Lord Berkeley that the cost of HS2 had risen to £106bn and they ran with it. In fact, the only refence to that figure in the Oakervee report is to dismiss it, not to endorse it.
StopHs2 is dead. Is anyone going to be stupid enough to try and rebrand it as “Stop High-Speed North”?
– but not today, despite the earlier claims of the BBC. Right now, she’s sucking throat lozenges, preparing for the final act which (if I’m right) will be next week.
The stage has been set by leaks to the media that the Chancellor and Midlands MP, Sajid Javid has thrown his weight behind building HS2 as the economics stack up for, not against the project. As Javid is a very Senior member of the Government and the man in charge of the money, this is hugely important. We’ve also seen a chorus of ‘get on with it’ from many of the new intake of Tory MPs in the North, much to the chagrin of Northern antis, who tried to pretend the ‘newbies’ were all against the project.
Whilst the announcement may not dot every ‘i’ and cross every ‘t’ in relation to Phase 2b of HS2, it will certainly mean there are no more questions over phase 1. Not only that, but from what I’ve been hearing, the phase 1 contractors are expected to hit the ground running. Whilst the project’s been delayed awaiting the political go-ahead, they’ve not been kicking their heels. They’ve refined their work plans and are keen to crack-on with them.
This will be the death knell of StopHs2 which has always been a phase 1 based campaign. It renders them completely irrelevant. Oh, there might be a few isolated protests due to local Nimbys and ‘Extinction Rebellion’ but they’ve already shown they’ve neither the numbers or the muscle to actually stop the work continuing. The idea they’re puffing that ‘Middle England’ will turn out to ‘protect’ the countryside and stop HS2 is pure bluster. They’ve fallen for their own social media spin and the numbers of voyeurs who watch their futile antics via Facebook – but who’ll never do anthing more than send ‘thoughts and prayers’.
Also, the law on these protests has tightened up since the heady days of “Swampy” and the road protests of the 1980s-90s. How many of these middle-class, middle-aged (and over) protesters are prepared to collect a criminal record other than ones by Max Bygraves or Des O’ Connor? They may protest while it’s felt the project hasn’t got a formal ‘green light’, but how many will still bother when it has and the full weight of the construction companies with thousands of men and hundreds of machines move in?
In the meantime, the froth will continue for a few more days, but I think even most antis have worked out how this is going to end. A few die-hards are still blustering on Twitter and Facebook from their armchairs, whilst the reprogrammed pro-brexit trolls spout absolute garbage, sometimes in incomprehensible ways like this.
“Beachams”? I think it was trying to refer to Beeching, but it got lost in translation!
I wonder how Joe Rukin’s job hunt is going? Not very well by the look of it. he’s reduced to recording this incoherent and rambling video from his bunker! The hilarious part is he’s asked his supporters to forward this car-crash to the PM! Bless…
Here’s the first of what may well become a new feature. Guest writing from friends and readers of this blog. The expression “rail expert” is terribly overused. Most of the time it’s used to refer to journalists like myself who may know about the railways. We wouldn’t dream of using it of ourselves, because the more we know, the more we realise how little we know. However, I think that if anyone can be classed as an expert in his subject it’s William, so I commend this blog to the house! William sent this to the Lords Economic Committee in response to Lord Tony Berkeley’s recent evidence to said committee.
Yesterday, you took evidence from Lord Berkeley to the effect that the business case for HS2 should be based only on 14 trains per hour (tph), as the nominal capacity of 18 tph on the HS2 trunk route is impracticable. He is wrong.
First, consider the theory, because if the theory doesn’t work there is no further argument. Taking into account realistic braking rates, the minimum time separation of trains at 360 kph can be calculated to be less than 120 seconds. For this calculation, please refer to my article in the Institution of Railway Signal Engineers journal ‘IRSE News’ for May 2019. More detailed modelling reflecting local features and constraints shows that this can increase to around 130 seconds. But it is clear that a flow of well above 18 trains per hour is possible on this basis.
Counter intuitively, though, the plain line headway at full speed in open air is not the binding constraint on capacity of the route. The highest headways arise in slow speed areas around stations particularly where approached through tunnels. The first implication of this is that the top speed of trains is irrelevant to capacity in practice, as raising it further would not create a new binding constraint, nor would reducing it ease a binding constraint.
The second implication is that it is these slow speed areas that need to be considered when assessing feasibility of the proposed capacity. HS2 has a technical standard that headways should be generally 120 seconds but not above 150 seconds. Modelling shows that even in the slow speed areas, 150 seconds technical headway is achievable. This is significant, as the International Union of Railways (UIC) guideline on practical exploitation of theoretical capacity is 75% for a dedicated high speed railway at peak periods. 150 seconds multiplied by 18 trains per hour gives precisely that figure. So using real data for the worst headways and the guidance of an international body, 18 trains per hour is feasible.
At this point, please note that, contrary to the evidence of Lord Berkeley, the HS2 business case is based on only 17 tph, with one further path pencilled in for possible future use. So the business case is even more robust in this respect.
That’s the theory. The issue then becomes whether the planned HS2 service can be operated reliably in practice, particularly in view of the risk of late handovers from the conventional railway. Frankly we can’t know until we try it, and that is no more or less the case for HS2 than for any other railway, but in accepting that one must also recognise that there is always management action possible to influence reliability, and that identifying a risk effectively means identifying where management action needs to be focused. One must also consider how robust HS2 can be expected to be in the face of such imposed delays, and the answer is – more robust than a classic railway.
The two big risks to service performance in the face of imposed delays are a) fast trains ending up following stopping trains once trains are running out of order, and b) conflicting moves at termini as the planned pattern of arriving and departing trains degrades. In the case of HS2, a) can be dismissed instantly, as there are no fast and stopping trains on the trunk route – all trains are running at the same speed, and all stopping only at the one station at Old Oak Common. If a later running train has to squeeze in to the flow, the consequent delay will decay over the next few trains. Moreover, the train that finds itself following a gap left by a late train can speed up in open air into that gap, thus allowing the delay to be eroded both before and after the late train. Then, b) is mitigated by the Euston track layout, which incorporates features that preserve robustness. Prime amongst these is a grade-separation in the station throat that makes the layout effectively two half stations handling half the service each, and so removes most of the scope for conflicts between out of course trains. Moreover, within each half-station, a platforming pattern that steps across from arrival side to departure side means that a later-running arrival will not normally create a conflict, as it will be in parallel with any later departure. For trains presenting seriously late, the option of turning back from Old Oak Common exists and has no parallel on the existing railway.
Lord Berkeley’s suggestion that 14 tph should be the maximum is based on two things:
The UIC calculation outlined above, except that he has wrongly and inexplicably applied the 75% factor twice, first to reduce the theoretical 24 tph at 150 seconds separation to 18 tph, then again to reduce that 18 tph to 13.5 which he approximates to 14 tph;
Evidence given many years ago, primarily to the Commons Transport Select Committee, by representatives of the French railways that they consider 14 tph or thereabouts to be their practicable maximum. Astonishingly, no-one ever asked them why! What feature of their railway sets this limit? From my argument above, I think it is unlikely to be the technical headway at full speed, unless a considerably less-than-state-of-the-current-art signalling system was in question. Where HS2 is constrained to 18 tph, as above in the slow speed areas, it is in effect like any other railway, many of which operate 18 tph now
I contend that the view expressed to you by Lord Berkeley yesterday is unfounded both theoretically and in practice. Please do not hesitate to contact me to discuss these issues further if this is helpful to you in reaching valid conclusions.
The sorry saga around the HS2 go-ahead announcement continues, with the BBC now claiming the Government will make the call tomorrow (Thursday). This rather contradicts the majority view from various informed sources that the announcement won’t be made until AFTER the UK formally leaves the EU, which is 11pm this Friday. The latest informed source I’ve spoken to reckons that the announcement will either be made Tuesday or Thursday next week, or at the end of February, due to the Parliamentary timetable. Personally, I suspect the latter date will be sailing close to the wind as March is the month construction needs to start without penalty payments bumping up the construction price – as confirmed in the latest NAO report into HS2.
Whatever the truth of the matter it’s clear that the announcement is imminent. Not a single source I’ve talked to considers there’s any real chance the project will be cancelled. Politically and economically, cancellation is a non-starter. The sooner this decision is taken the better.
Meanwhile, the froth around HS2 continues in the media, with column inch after column inch of speculation, spin and outright fiction. It’s certainly keeping the pundits busy anyway!
But what of the StopHs2 campaign? It goes from farce to worse. Poor Joe Rukin has made a fool of himself yet again in this overwrought post on the Stop Hs2 Facebook page. A wildlife expert he clearly isn’t. Look at the reply to his Badger sett claim!
Meanwhile, the Harvil Rd protest appears to have collapsed. In contrast to the previous barrage of tedious Facebook posts and self-indulgent videos on the Colne Valley Facebook page there’s been nothing for days. No-one seems to be doing anything that even merits a boring video, much less actually stopping any work on the ground – and this is their oldest and biggest protest camp! Instead, we’ve been treated to more over-long and tedious ‘livestream’ videos from the latest ‘camp’ which is on Welsh Road just outside Offchurch, Warwickshire. Here’s a link.
What it shows is a handful of mostly middle-class protesters completely failing to stop the cutting down of trees and hedgerows alongside a road. It’s all a bit of an expensive pantomime as contractors erect Heras fencing to protect protesters from themselves as they stupidly (and pointlessly) try and place themselves in harms way and then film it – as if it’s HS2’s fault they’re daft enough to get where they are! The contractors and police display the patience of saints as the protesters wind themselves up, spouting more and more nonsense about the project, the law – and the countryside. And what have they stopped? Nothing.
The irony is the guy who’s filming this and who constantly boasts about all the ‘hearts’ being posted on his feed are worse than useless. It’s nothing more than voyeurism. Those armchair warriors won’t do anything other than massage a few protesters egos by telling them how they’re ‘with them in spirit’ and other suchlike tosh. It’s about as useful as sending “thoughts and prayers” but this is the nature of protest in the smartphone age it seems! The protesters video drags on interminably, with the same ridiculous statements including all the old favourites about “HS2 only saves 20 mins”, “no-one will use it”, “it’ll be obsolete in 10yrs” – wibble, froth wibble. After a while, the police beef up their presence at the site (adding yet more expense) whilst the protesters try to argue everything that’s being done is ‘illegal’. It’s like arguing about angels on heads of pins. Opinions don’t trump legality so the protesters are on to a loser from the very start. What’s actually depressing is just how ignorant and misinformed they are, but then the likes of StopHs2’s Joe Rukin has been filling people’s heads with nonsense for years…
Eventually, after 2 hours filming, the video ends and we’re saved from more middle-class angst, pointless arguments and misinformation.
Did it stop the tree felling and hedgerow clearance? Did it heck as like! The protesters own video admits they’ve failed to stop 3/4 mile of tree felling and hedgerow clearance! A tiny delay is not stopping anything. The irony, this pointless exercise will have cost a pretty penny in security and (probably) police overtime. Yet one of the things the protesters are complaining about is the cost of building HS2. The very costs they’re adding to with their futile protests. Here’s the later video which shows how the protesters wasted their time.
Away from pointless protests there’s been action on the political front which has ramifications for HS2. Today Transport Minister Grant Shapps announced that the Northern rail franchise is going to be taken back of Arriva and run by the DfT’s operator of last resort (OLR). Well, I say ‘action’ but this move had been widely trailed and has hardly come as a surprise. You can find a copy of Shapps Statement here.
The implications for HS2 comes in this, the admission that the issue is as much about infrastructure as anything else.
“The vast majority of Northern’s trains pass though Leeds or Manchester”? The two Northern cities that HS2 does so much to relieve rail capacity in! I’ve no doubt Northern leaders will be pointing this out to Shapps. With such an admission, does anyone seriously think the Minister is about to announce the cancellation of HS2 when doing so will just add to the problems?
Paul Bigland 