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Paul Bigland

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A terrible time for the anti Hs2 campaign.

28 Saturday Nov 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Hs2aa, StopHs2, Uncategorized

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Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Hs2aa, StopHs2

It’s that regular time of month when I take a snapshot of the state of the anti Hs2 campaign and (for them) the news just gets worse. Let’s kick off with the usual analysis of their performance across social media – which they’ve become increasingly reliant upon as their activist base declines.

anti scores

There’s now 9 months of data to analyse and what it shows is that, despite evidence that they’ve been stung into trying to improve the numbers – they’re still getting nowhere fast.

First, remember the usual caveat, not all followers are supporters, many are simply there to keep an eye on what they’re up to. Also, many of their Twitter followers are fake accounts or sock puppets so Twitter is a very poor gauge of real support. Plus, a group of people all ranting to each other don’t really have an impact outside of their own small circle. Facebook is even more insular. It’s good for getting your message out to people who like your pages, but that means you’re only really preaching to the converted. It’s also a double-edged sword as the Stophs2 Facebook page shows. On it you can see a small group of hopelessly confused people who really can’t understand why no-one is actually listening to them, although anyone looking in can easily see why. Here’s a few recent examples;

fb1

fb2

Crunching the numbers shows their Facebook campaign is moribund with only a 5.33% increase for Stophs2 and a mere 0.74% for Hs2aa. What’s even worse is the increases are from a tiny base! As for 51M – they’ve gone backwards, but as their FB page was last updated in June 2011 & they’ve effectively ceased to exist it’s moot.

Over on Twitter things aren’t much better. The two surviving groups (stophs2 & Hs2aa) are still under 5,000 followers apiece so a 10% increase in 9 months means little. Of course, many of these followers will be the same people, which limits their spread even more. The great irony in the figures is the only person with a decent increase is the former Communications Director of another defunct group (AGAHST) who’s achieved her popularity by tweeting about anything other than Hs2! Their Twitter campaign is increasingly farcical. It’s mostly in the hands of isolated individual who try to to keep it going. The ludicrous stuff they tweet is mostly outright bonkers or offensive, it certainly won’t convert the people they need to stop Hs2 – which makes it all the more counterproductive. This is starting to tell as the numbers of retweets their nonsense gets is steadily declining.

Another sign of the anti Hs2 campaign’s decline is that the Hs2aa website is STILL blocked by virus protection software some three and a half weeks after I first blogged about it.

Meanwhile, in the real world,things are even worse. Their campaign’s had a truly awful month…

The stophs2 campaign held a secret gathering of countrywide groups that was nothing short of an embarrassment. You can read about it here. All it achieved was to show how much the strength of their campaign has declined in the past couple of years. Their woes were compounded when the Chancellor, George Osborne presented his budget review. Not only did this expose their claims that hs2 would divert money from improvements to the existing rail network, it also skewered their ridiculous claims for how much Hs2 will cost as the budget was updated to 2015 prices. You can read about that here.

Budget day also exposed a growing schism between the two remaining anti Hs2 groups. Whilst Stophs2 have been trying to spin the costs of Hs2 as “spiralling” Hs2aa members were distinctly off-message at the Hybrid Bill petitions! Hs2aa’s Hilary Wharf was part of a group that was arguing the Chilterns could have a fully bored tunnel as tunnelling costs often turned out to be lower than official estimates!  You can see their evidence to the Committee here.

So, where does this leave their campaign? Up shit creek really…

They’ve utterly failed to make any political breakthrough. Their activist base is steadily declining and their stability of the two remaining groups in looking increasingly rocky. Meanwhile, the Government and Hs2 Ltd are  pressing ahead with the project whilst the Hybrid Bill Committee are steaming ahead with the petitioning process – all of which eats further into the Stophs2 activist base.

Somehow I don’t think there’s going to be much cheer at the Stophs2 Christmas party, which is going to be their last….

Decamping to Derby…

26 Thursday Nov 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Rail Investment, Uncategorized

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Rail Forum East Mids, Rail Investment

I’m currently en-route to Derby and ‘enjoying’ kicking my heels in a very gloomy Manchester in between trains. Even my camera is squinting in this light..

That said, I’m looking to an interesting and entertaining evening at the Rail Forum East Midlands dinner which is a precursor to tomorrows annual conference which is held at Derby cricket ground.

Needless to say, there will be lots to talk about after yesterdays spending review and release of the Hendy report into Network Rails investment plans. The doom and gloom that some were predicting for the rail industry has failed to materialise. Instead, the future is looking rather rosy…

No doubt I’ll have time to do a bit of tweeting in between taking the pictures tomorrow, so feel free to follow proceedings at @PaulBigland1

Financial spin & contradictions from the anti Hs2 mob.

25 Wednesday Nov 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Anti Hs2 mob, Economic illiteracy, Hs2, Hs2aa, Northern Powerhouse, Politics, Rail Investment, StopHs2, Uncategorized

≈ 4 Comments

Tags

Hs2, Hs2aa, StopHs2

Today’s not been a good day for the anti hs2 campaign despite their high  expectations. For some reason they’d convinced themselves that there was trouble on the horizon for Hs2 and that the Autumn spending review might even see Hs2 cancelled as the Government ran out of money for investment.

For days they’d been circulating nonsense comparisons such as ‘defense spending or Hs2’ or  even ‘Police Officers or Hs2’. In the end the Chancellor made complete fools of them! Not only did he find new money for the armed forces and didn’t cut the police budget – he also confirmed extra money for transport investment including Trans-Pennine electrification and confirmed the Hs2 budget at £55.7bn in 2015 prices.

funding envelope

The poor anti Hs2 mob didn’t know how to respond. StopHs2’s Penny Gaines and Joe Rukin had been sitting by their keyboards, waiting to spin what they could, but found the cupboard was bare. They managed a few desultory tweets but Osborne had clearly wrong-footed them.

Once the news broke that the Hs2 budget had been adjusted they tried the usual daft spin to pretend that the budget for Hs2 is the same as the cost of Hs2. They were helped by one or two confused Journo’s who managed the same feat, so I must give credit to the BBC’s Paul Scoins (@paulscoins) who corrected a tweet when I pointed this out to him.

What wrong -footed the antis even more was the revelation that the updated budget also included the budget estimate for the Hs2 trains, meaning the increase was far smaller than they’d be trying to spin! What they’d failed to understand was the 2015 cost is simply the 2011 cost adjusted for inflation. Of course, if you’re going to adjust the Hs2 budget for inflation you also have to adjust the benefits of Hs2 by the same amount. Watch some of the antis really struggle with that little fact…

Meanwhile, in one of those wonderful ironies, whilst StopHs2 and a few other antis were trying to pretend that this is a real cost increase in Hs2, Hilary Wharf, a member of the other remaining anti Hs2 Group – Hs2aa – was with a group from Potter Row who were presenting their petition to the Hybrid Bill Committee. Wharf and Co are arguing for a fully bored tunnel under the Chilterns. Part of their argument was that the actual costs of tunnels can come in lower than initial budgets- a position in diametric opposition to their fellow travellers at StopHs2!

Worse was to come as details of Sir Peter Hendy’s report into Network Rail was released. This exposed the anti Hs2 mobs scaremongering on Hs2 sucking money from rail investment was complete nonsense. You can read the details on RAIL magazines website.

The great ‘paid more than the PM’ non-story

25 Wednesday Nov 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Peter Jones, Uncategorized

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Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Hypocrisy

As the anti Hs2 campaign gets more desperate they’re reduced to recycling old stories, the latest one being that some Hs2 staff are paid more than the Prime Minister (who is paid £150,000).

Their problem is this tactic only goes to prove the old adage that “people who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones”

Here’s some great examples.

Camden curmudgen & serial ranter Peter Jones spits his usual venom at Hs2 and avoids the fact Camden Council pays the Chief Executive, Deputy Chief executive and Finance Director more (see here).

Meanwhile, Stop Hs2 windbag Joe Rukin jumped in with both feet, ignoring the fact his local county council (Warks) pays its Chief Executive over £172k…

Even more unfortunately, the National Trusts Hs2 Officer Steve Field climbed on the bandwagon. He seemed unaware the NT (a charity) has been criticised for paying several of its senior staff large salaries whilst leaving the rank & file employers on low pay. Ironically, the same paper Field quotes (The Telegraph) ran an article in 2013 that heavily criticised the NTs top heavy salaries, such as the Trusts former Director General who was on £179k..

I’m sure there’s going to be plenty more examples….

The truth is, the PM’s salary is a lousy yardstick for anything.

Another manic few days…

18 Wednesday Nov 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Travel, Uncategorized, Work

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Travel, Work

It’s been lovely to have a couple of days at home but these things never last long. Tomorrow I have to be up at silly o’ clock to head over to a school near Wigan to do a job for Network Rail that involves pupils and a “sleb”. After which I meander across to Derby to get ready for the Rail Exec gala at the Roundhouse where I’m booked to go up on stage and award a prize for the Rail Engineer’s photography competition. This will be a novel experience as I’ll be on the other end of a camera for a change!

I’m sure it’ll be a great event and I’m looking forward to catching up with friends and colleagues. The fly in the ointment is that I have to be in London by 09:30 the next morning to do a job for RAIL magazine. Still, I’ll get back home Friday night, which is a bonus.

The ‘good’ news is that the job that would have seen me working trackside out in rural Lincolnshire over the weekend has been cancelled. This means I have the luxury of a weekend at home – albeit one filled with editing, filing etc…

I have to admit, it’s a varied life in this game.

 

The anti Hs2 mob and the Daily Wail get outraged!

01 Sunday Nov 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Uncategorized

≈ 1 Comment

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Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Property market, The Daily Wail

Today’s Mail on Sunday has managed to mix together sloppy sensationalism and innuendo with a dollop of ridiculous Rukin rhetoric to half-bake a story about Hs2 Ltd buying houses along the route.

You can find the Wail’s story here.

Needless to say, some of the usual suspects started hyperventilating about the story on social media. Hypocrisy being their forte, the same folks who are outraged that Hs2 supposedly isn’t paying enough compensation to people are getting outraged that Hs2 are alleged to have paid – in the Mail’s own words – a “staggering” £225m for 300 homes. The article accuses Hs2 Ltd of ‘underhand’ tactics in buying some properties but details or evidence to back up this assertion is conspicuous by its absence. The article hinges on the fact some people are complaining they haven’t got the price the property was on the market for. It’s a state of affairs sellers anywhere can complain about as it’s not a situation unique to Hs2. Anyone who has ever bought or sold a house will know that sellers have a habit of inflating what their property is worth – but that doesn’t mean that’s what you’ll get (as buyers can tell you!). In fact, the article demonstrates there’s not a huge difference in many cases. The claims that the Government has somehow managed to ‘squander’ taxpayers money by acquiring a property portfolio are equally laughable. In fact, the Government could well make a tidy sum on the deal once all the anti Hs2 mob induced hysteria about building the line subsides.

The map the Wail has produced to accompany the article is as factual as the article. It’s managed to divert the West Coast Main Line to run through Buckingham!

Here’s some examples of outrage from Twitter…

wail 3

wail 2

wail 4

A sad truth for those homeowners affected by the building of the line is that no-one has done more to depress house prices than the groups campaigning AGAINST Hs2. Both Hs2aa and Stophs2 have done their damnedest to make it sound like Hs2 will be more devastating than the arrival of Genghis Khan & the Mongol hordes. They’ve tried to scare people half to death, then cynically exploited that fear for their own ends.

Of course, the ability for the anti Hs2 mob to complain that compensation isn’t enough whilst at the same time getting outraged at the cost of buying houses won’t stop hs2 in the least. But it can provide us all with a good laugh…

Travel blog: Northampton.

19 Monday Oct 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Uncategorized

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Northampton, Travel, Travel blog..

I don’t think I’ve explored Northampton for around 20 years. It’s so long ago I don’t really remember that much about it, so today’s sojourn was a bit of an eye opener. It started well. I arrived at a railway station that’s seen £20m invested in a new split level building that’s replaced an old, cramped 1960’s structure. This simply couldn’t cope with the level of passengers the line’s seeing nowadays. I was similarly impressed with the new complex that housed my hotel & a Vue cinema. The warning signs began when I took the hotel lift & noticed the large dents in the doors. Had the Incredible Hulk stayed here and got annoyed or was this the aftermath of a ‘normal’ Saturday night in an Ibis?

My room’s pleasant enough, although it would have been nice to have TV channels that broadcast more than than a little box that says “no signal” but – hey ho – the wifi’s fine & that’s more important.

I thought it was very kind of the staff to leave an ironing board & iron on the landing outside my room until I tried to bring it in and realised the iron is wired in to a socket and it ain’t going nowhere. Maybe in the morning I can strike lucky & slip a couple of quid to someone in the queue to do my shirt.

After dumping my kit I wandered into the town which has some lovely Victorian buildings. The weather was rather magical too. Heavy clouds parted long enough to allow the dying rays of the sun to floodlight old buildings like All Saints’ Church which looked sublime,as you can see from this picture…

DG231954. All Saints' church. Northampton. 20.10.15.

I was even more impressed with Northampton Guildhall which is a stunning Neo-Gothic building dating from 1861. Sadly, other bits of the town haven’t worn so well – and I’m not just talking about the buildings. Considering this is a county town well within commuting distance of London (hence the new station) there’s far more vagrancy than I’ve seen in many towns in my recent travels. I always try & explore places I stay to get the feel of them but this one reminded me more of Lincolnshire. Why? Well, it’s ethnically mixed and it’s these people who seem to be doing all the work. Many workers I came across probably have Polish, Patois or Punjabi as their first language. In contrast, the town’s monuments were draped with a variety of young & old derelicts & the lost who were overwhelmingly white.

I struggled to find a decent real ale pub to find here (another black mark) so ended up in a Lloyds No 1 Bar (the local Wetherspoons was more like a drop-in centre than a pub). The bar was quiet but with a mixed clientele – apart from two pissed middle aged blokes – one of whom was loudly trying to convince everyone within earshot that ‘they’ had made it illegal to call the Union Jack by that name and anyone carrying it would be arrested by the police. Monday night in Northampton eh? After that I decided discretion was the better part of valour and retreated to my hotel to type up these experiences.

Tomorrow I’m looking forward to talking about a very different time. The official opening of the new rail college. I’m sure that will be a much more positive experience!

Gilligoon ‘sexes it up’ – again.

13 Sunday Sep 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Uncategorized

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Andrew Gilligan, Anti Hs2 mob, Euston station, Hs2

Torygraph reporter & disgraced former BBC journalist Andrew Gilligan, famous for ‘sexing up’ his stories whilst accusing others of the same offence, is at it again. This time it’s a ridiculously ill-informed story about Euston station capacity & Hs2 that appeared in yesterday’s Telegraph. You can find it here.

In it, Gilligoon claims that “fewer conventional trains than now will be able to get in to Euston” because the number of non Hs2 platforms will be reduced and that “The number of approach tracks for trains entering the station will also fall by a third, from six to four”

In typically pompous fashion, Gilligoon says “HS2 documents seen by The Telegraph” intimating that he’s had access to something unseen by everyone else. The truth is, these documents are in the public domain. None of this stuff is secret, but then admitting that doesn’t pander to Gilligoon’s ego.

So, let’s unpick some of Gilligoons ridiculous claims.

“Fewer conventional trains will be able to get into Euston”. Really? Why?

What Gilligoon fails to mention is that one of the main capacity constraints at terminal stations is the turnaround time. This is the amount of time a train occupies a platform. At Euston, Intercity trains normally take around 35 minutes between arrival & departure. This is to allow them to be cleaned & the buffet to be restocked. Gilligoon fails to deal with the fact that these services will be transferred to Hs2 & replaced with services that need far shorter turnaround times – thus freeing up platform capacity & allowing more services to run. A good example of this is over at Charing Cross, which can cope with 29 trains per hour on just 6 platforms (& 4 approach lines).

Gilligoon goes on to quote Joe Rukin from Stophs2, who claims that “It is shameless not to mention that decommissioning two of the approach tracks will cut a third of the line and platform capacity into Euston”

What Rukin doesn’t say is that that there are only 4 tracks into Euston for the 54 miles from Hanslope Junction. It’s this that regulates traffic to & from Euston – not the final quarter mile! He also forgets Hs2 itself. Because Hs2 isn’t a mixed use railway carrying a variety of traffic it can run 18 trains (each way) per hour. This means that Euston gains capacity, it doesn’t lose it! Admittedly, what Rukin knows about railway operations can be written on the back of a stamp but even he can’t be this stupid.

In another attempt at scaremongering, Gilligoon claims that “The successful Overground local stopping service to Watford may also be at risk. It too could be curtailed short of central London, or diverted” Really? So what’s the evidence to back up this claim? There’s none. What a surprise. Something else that Gilligoon & Rukin neglect to mention are the plans to move the Euston – Tring stopping service onto Crossrail. This will both enhance the service and provide more capacity at Euston.

Meanwhile, back to platforms at Euston. How exactly will these be reduced? Euston currently has 18. What will it have after Hs2? Err, 22.

Here’s the information provided by Hs2 Ltd in the official press release:

“As well as the 11 high speed platforms provided by the new plan, at least 11 platforms will remain in the current station to serve the existing network”

In a further irony, Gilligoon inadvertently exposes the Pan Camden Alliances argument that Hs2 should terminate at Old Oak Common when he says that “Though HS2 will release space on the line itself, it will be of little value, since fewer conventional trains than now will be able to get in to Euston, the main destination for passengers.

He also bursts another anti Hs2 mob argument. They always focus on long distance services and the number of passengers using them. But, as Gilligoon points out “Two thirds of passengers using Euston are commuters”. And who stands to benefit most from the capacity released when long distance services move on to Hs2. Yep – commuters!

Another big hole in Gilligoon’s argument is his artificial distinction between conventional & Hs2 platforms at Euston. He uses it purely as a device to try & find fault. Will passengers care about which platform their train leaves from? Of course not. What will matter to them is how often & how speedy their trains are (oh, and if they can get a seat). The reality he refuses to deal with is that after Hs2 is built there will be a far better train service out of Euston than there is now, but admitting that would never do…

Poor Gilligoon. He’s tried another hatchet job on Hs2 & all he’s done is make a fool of himself and help demolish some of the anti Hs2 mobs arguments in the process!

UPDATE. (16th September).

Yesterday’s Hs2 Additional Provisions debate in Parliament has exposed another flaw in Gilligoon’s article and Rukin’s spin, although (what a surprise) Rukin neglects to mention this very important information in his report on the Stophs2 website.

Transport Minister Robert Goodwill revealed that of the two approach lines into Euston that will be taken out of service in 2018, line E and X. Line X will be reinstated after 3 years. Here’s the excerpt from Hansard;

euston AP

This was clarified further when Goodwill replied to a question from The MP for Milton Keynes South, Iain Stewart;

Iaian Stewart

This makes Rukin’s claims even more ridiculous – which is presumably why Rukin neglects to mention it! Rather than relying on the censored report of the debate on the StopHs2 website, you’re far better off reading the official transcript, which is here.

Scotland bound…

10 Friday Jul 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Uncategorized

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

History, Railways

We’re on our way to Scotland so blogging will be taking a bit of a back seat for the next few days. Expect the occasional update and, if the anti hs2 campaign comes out with anything stupid (a bit of a certainty, really) some lampoonery.

We’ve just spent the night in the old railway town of Tebay. It’s a fine example of how the railways brought prosperity to an area and what happened to many towns after the Beeching cuts which closed their stations. After Tebay closed in 1962 the towns population dropped from 1000 to 700 because families left & one of the two schools was forced to shut. That school became a youth hostel & is now the private B&B where I stayed the night.

More grandstanding from Labour’s Michael Dugher.

26 Friday Jun 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Uncategorized

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Michael Dugher MP, Politics, Transport

One of the more depressing aspects of yesterday’s announcement of delays to Network Rails modernisation plans was the predictable reaction of Labour’s Shadow Transport Minister, Michael Dugher.

“Since 2010, passengers have had to endure a catalogue of failures on our railways. Ministers may try to shift all the blame to Network Rail, but this has happened on the government’s watch and the responsibility for this mess lies squarely with the government.

“Labour has warned time and time again that there needs to be fundamental change in how our railways are run. But the Transport Secretary has dithered and delayed.”

Irony is not Dugher’s forte. He lambasts the Government for ‘shifting the blame’ onto Network Rail whilst he shifts the blame onto the Government. Because, let’s be clear about this – Labour has as much responsibility for this mess as anyone.

As I mentioned in yesterday’s blog. The problem with electrification schemes is they’re like buses. There’s nothing for ages then they all come at once. We have Great Western, Trans-Pennine and Midland Main Line – along with a rolling programme of schemes over the border in Scotland. That’s a huge amount of work. But why does it all have to be done now?

Because the last Labour government did bugger all, that’s why

Between 1997 and 2010 Labour approved one measly scheme of less than 20 miles, the minor link line between Crewe & Kidsgrove. Contrast this with the previous Tory administration which managed to electrify the East Coast & Great Eastern main lines, amongst others. Not bad for a party whose leader (Margaret Thatcher) supposedly ‘hated’ railways.

Labour sat on its hands & let the DfT pretend that there was no need to electrify as some new technology was just around the corner. This faith in what Roger Ford of Modern Railways coined ‘bionic duckweed’ was bonkers- but it suited Labour as it meant they didn’t have to spend any money. It was only when Lord Adonis came along that the position was reversed & a tranche of schemes was announced. But by then it was too late.

Starved of work, the skilled engineers who’d electrified the East Coast had scattered on the four winds & the industry lost the ability to carry out major schemes. That skills shortage still exists – and not just in OLE. It’s the same in signalling & in design.

Dugher conveniently ignores this and Labour’s role in sowing the seeds of today’s problems. We’ll get no ‘mea culpa’ from him. But then this is the man who’s said Labour has “too many pointy heads & not enough street fighters” when clearly, the opposite is true. Attack dogs like Dugher got Labour into this mess in the first place & they’re one of the reasons why Labour failed to win the 2015 election. To be frank, people are sick of this style of politics, but Labour isn’t listening. Mary Creagh outlined the problem in her interview with the Guardian when she withdrew from the Labour leadership contest. In it she highlighted why Dugher replaced her – Labour wanted to ‘pick a fight’
That went well, didn’t it? Instead of gaining support, Dugher rapidly lost it. He managed to alienate many people in the rail industry – and quite a few of them were Labour voters!

Following their election defeat, Labour said they would listen to people & analyse what went wrong. Sadly, there’s little evidence of that happening. Dugher is still Shadow Transport Minister & now he’s running Andy Burnham’s campaign for the Labour leadership.

If Labour really DO want to listen, then I have a few suggestions.

Ditch your obsession with who owns the railways & concentrate on what you want the railways to deliver.

A bit of humility & understanding wouldn’t go amiss. How about admitting your part in past problems & actually come up with some solutions instead of grandstanding?

How about committing a future Labour administration to a rolling programme of investment that will even out the ridiculous peaks & troughs that have led to a skills shortage? This will have several benefits. It will create skilled jobs and save money through economies of scale. If the train builders know that over the next 10 years they’ll have orders for thousand of new electric trains we can get them for a decent price – oh, and prise the DfTs dead hands off train specifying & ordering train. That’ll save a few bob too..

Also, how about supporting the industry instead of using it as a political football?

In fact, there’s a whole host of ways the industry could advise you on. But that means listening, not lecturing, something you’re not good at. Contrast Dugher’s approach with The Tories Claire Perry, who does listen and actually had the sense to ask the industry what it needs from Government. Novel, eh?

Sadly, I’m probably wasting my time typing this. Dugher has stuck his fingers in his ears & Labour’s promise to listen & learn from its mistakes is looking increasingly hollow. We’ll end up with a new Labour leader but the same old problems will remain. I don’t see anything that will bring people back to Labour & Labour back to power.

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