Category Archives: Hs2

Hs2 Action Alliance & the art of telling porkies

25 Wednesday Feb 2015

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We’ve seen in the last few weeks how Stop HS2 have resorted to blatant deceit in their desperate attempts to breathe life back into their failing campaign, with a fabrication about major locations such as Runcorn, Preston and Wolverhampton losing all direct services to London. Whilst this fantasy has been well and truly scotched, one striking observation is that those anti-HS2 groups with some pretensions to respectability did not try to pick it up and run with it. Apart from the facts of the matter, as set out in Prof McNaughton’s presentation to the HS2 Hybrid Bill Select Committee, if even HS2 Action Alliance (HS2AA) won’t touch a scare story, we can be pretty certain that “scare story” is a bit of an understatement. And something tells me that this Amersham-based organisation is more than a little wary of the risk of being associated with Joe Rukin’s antics these days.

But even if HS2AA aren’t quite bosom buddies with Stop HS2 any more, that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be hanging their head in shame, having form on this issue themselves!

Last year, a number of different local newspapers ran stories, identical apart from the name of the location in question, that their main town or city had a better train service in steam days than it would be left with after HS2. These identikit stories came from HS2AA, courtesy of their Director of Local Campaigns Peter Chegwyn. And of course one of these shock horror (insert name of location) stories featured Coventry.

Now, what is instantly clear is that Mr Chegwyn hadn’t done anything so basic as to check out what service Coventry did have in steam days. In 1957/8 (that is, the last year of a full service before the WCML was disrupted by electrification works), Coventry enjoyed a grand total of just eight express trains per day to London, of which even the best needed more than 1½ hours for a journey that now takes a couple of minutes over the hour. Nothing whatsoever, however crudely twisted, supports any suggestion that Coventry would revert to that level of service after implementation of HS2.

That it can only have come from the campaigners’ dirty tricks box is the kindest thing I can find to say. As tactics go, it’s not a bad one of course, as the instinctive response that Coventry would indeed have as good a service as in steam days hardly sounds very good.

But, as we now know, Professor McNaughton’s presentation clearly showed two limited-stop trains per hour to London. That’s as many trains in four hours as HS2AA imply it would have in a day. Clearly, it isn’t the three trains per hour that Coventry, essentially because it is on the way to Birmingham, enjoys today, but the question is what service is appropriate for a city of such a size and distance from London. And two trains per hour is the same as Bristol has now from its city centre station, Temple Meads.

As for speed, no doubt those trains will make one or two extra stops, at worst adding less than 10 minutes to the journey time, so again HS2AA’s comparison with steam fails. The average speed from Coventry to London, even with those extra stops, would be higher than from Bristol Temple Meads today.

But apart from contributing traffic to justify the service level, those extra stops, at major residential and employment centres such as Milton Keynes, are the up side for Coventry. It works in reverse as well. Birmingham should be a very convenient airport for the major business and residential area of Milton Keynes, but only one of the three Virgin Euston – Birmingham trains per hour calls at Milton Keynes. So on the way put you probably have either a lot of wasted time before your flight or a good chance of missing it, whilst on your return you risk waiting 59 minutes for a train home. But even if there might be only two fast trains per hour after HS2, when both stop at Milton Keynes the service effectively doubles, and a half-hourly service makes a pretty fair airport link.

Once the West Coast Main Line has these currently-neglected flows as its prime markets, the service between these major locations improves radically, for the benefit of workers, shoppers and leisure travellers alike. But that doesn’t make for cheap headlines.

The anti Hs2 campaign’s numbers don’t add up, again (social media edition)

22 Sunday Feb 2015

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On their website, the High Speed 2 Action Alliance make the claim that ‘There are over 172,000 households located within 1km of Phase 1 of HS2, and at least the same again for Phase 2 – meaning over half a million people  impacted by these proposals’. Half a million – wow! – that’s a lot of angry people then, surely? They must be queuing up to protest about Hs2. I mean – if we add all those folks supposedly opposed to Hs2 for ideological or financial reasons, that must be over a million, yes?

Not a chance!

The truth is that, for all the various claims made by anti Hs2 supporters, there’s very little real opposition on the ground. I’ve illustrated this before in a previous blog where I looked at the death of their ‘action group’ network. https://paulbigland.wordpress.com/2015/01/17/the-anti-hs2-campaign-dying-by-degrees-pt1/

In this one I’m exploring their daft claims of mass support further.

One would think that with all these stout yeoman folk of England up in arms it would be easy to get huge groups of them together in protest. That’s certainly the impression the anti Hs2 mob try to give, aided & abetted by sections of the media who’re too lazy to fact check or who support them.

But where are these folks in reality? As they can’t be found in mass demonstrations or packed meeting halls up & down the land, perhaps social media will give a clue? Actually, it does, but it’s not a revelation anti Hs2 campaigners will like. Nowadays, social media is one of the easiest ways for those interested in a campaign to engage & show their support so you might be forgiven in thinking that Facebook & Twitter must be teeming with people outraged by Hs2. The problem is, the anti’s numbers don’t stack up here either. Don’t forget that not everyone following an anti group will be supporting their aims. Many folk will be doing it just to see what they’re up to. Their real support will be lower than the numbers I’m quoting (of course, this applies to pro Hs2 groups too).

Let’s start with the Twitter followers of the main anti Hs2 groups:

Hs2 Action Alliance (@hs2aa): 3,199 followers

StopHs2 (@stophs2): 4,112

I’ve also included both of StopHs2’s leaders.

Joe Rukin (@joerukin): 1,857

Penny Gaines (@penny_gaines): 399

51M (@51M_Hs2project): 610

The umbrella group Action Groups Against Hs2 (AGAHST) don’t have a Twitter account but they do have a supposed ‘Campaign Director’, Deanne DuKhan (@DuKhanD) who has a massive following of err, 654….

Still, surely they can do better over on Facebook can’t they? Wrong again. In 2011 it was estimated that over 30 million UK citizens had a Facebook profile, that’s double the number of UK Twitter accounts. And the scores on the anti Hs2 campaign’s doors?…

Hs2aa: 2,168

https://www.facebook.com/HS2AA?fref=ts

StopHs2: 6,415

https://www.facebook.com/STOP.HS2?fref=ts

51M: 393

https://www.facebook.com/pages/51m_HS2project/218611348167462

It’s worth noting that 51M’s FB account hasn’t been updated since the 1st June 2011.

AGAHST haven’t even bothered with Facebook but their derelict website (where they’re still plugging an epetition that closed in August 2012*) can be found here: http://www.betterthanhs2.org/who-we-are/

Now, what was that tosh about a ‘relentless’ & ‘growing’ campaign again? Whichever way you look at it, the one thing you can’t find is any real majority support for a campaign against Hs2 – anywhere – except in the imaginations of the dwindling number still opposing the project.

*Incidentally, that epetition got a grand total of 26,262 signatures.

UPDATE (10th March 2015)

Oh dear! At today’s Hs2 Committee hearing, Denham Against Hs2 Chairman Frank Partridge  let the cat out of the bag about the number of Hs2 ‘Action’ groups. The likes of Hs2aa are still pretending there are over 90. Frank admitted to the Committee that the real number is ’40 to 50′ – around half the numbers claimed! More proof (if it were needed) that the campaign’s been exaggerating the size of its activist base.

 

 

 

 

 

Poetry corner, c/o ‘Skimbleshanks’

19 Thursday Feb 2015

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My friend ‘Skimbleshanks’ has sent me this gem. Poetry corner is looking like it’s going to be a regular feature!

Windbag Music
With apologies to Louis Macneice

It’s no go the anti-mob, it’s no go the Nimby’s,
Half the time they’ve pants afire, their arguments are flimsy.

Prof McNaughton went to town, spoke to the Committee,
Rukin twisted what he said, just made himself look silly,
Joey tried to spin a tale, of trains per hour at Runcorn,
But even Wharf and Weston know a loser when they see one.

It’s no go Stop HS2, it’s no go the Alliance,
Because of Rukin’s porky-pies they are no more affianced.

Wellings then re-tweeted Joe, had a gipsy’s warning,
Wouldn’t dare another go at tweeting his outpourings.
So he teamed up with Transport Watch, called down the mummy’s curses,
They hate the railways so much they’d turn them into buses.

Tett and Gillan looked at that, didn’t like the answer,
Good enough for you and me, but not their Chiltern manor!
What can we think, when he don’t know,
What’s Current Price or Present Value?

It’s no go for 51M, it’s no go for Stokesy,
‘Cos you can’t add trains at Milton Keynes by adding seats to Glasgow.

It’s no go the IEA, it’s no go B’leeben,
That they’ve no answer to rail growth don’t take much concealing.

It’s no go the Batty Man, it’s no go the brickie,
It’s no go the sour-butt nor the Paper Geordie,
It’s no go the driverless car, it’s no go super Broadband,
If you hang your hat on those you need your head examined.

It’s no go the load factor, it’s no go the PIXC;
Traffic’s growing year on year, HS2 will fix it.
Traffic’s growing day by day, it could go on forever,
Stick your head in the bloody sand but that won’t change the answer.

Skimbleshanks, who is now retiring to sleep on a mailbag by the stove in the Porter’s Room

More on the Rukin rumpus – with added slides!

19 Thursday Feb 2015

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Who said “A lie will be half way round the world before the truth has got its boots on”? If it wasn’t Joe Rukin of Stop HS2, it must be his motto, as launching porkies on the world is his speciality. But his addiction to dashing out scare stories from left field has now bitten him very firmly on his backside.

On Wednesday last week, Professor Andrew McNaughton gave evidence to the HS2 Select Committee about train service plans for HS2 itself and the classic railway after implementation of Phase 1 of HS2 in 2026. The committee, especially Sir Peter Bottomley, questioned him intelligently and perceptively, and all seemed very happy with his evidence, given orally but with supporting detail on a set of presentation slides. Here’s a link to them:

Click to access A_McNaughton_Presentation_11_02_15.pdf

Well we can’t have that can we, said Joe, and promptly blogged the most stupid and deceitful piece of nonsense ever to emerge from his StopHS2 stable. The trouble is, he did so on the basis of high-level summaries given orally, forgetting that the committee were looking at the slides as well.

Hence when Prof McNaughton referred to “non-stop” trains, as opposed to local and commuter trains, Joe rushed into print with the fatuous suggestion that HS2 intended to withdraw stops at all stations except London, Birmingham, Liverpool, Manchester and Glasgow. Amongst the stations Joe listed as “losing” direct trains to London were Stockport, Wilmslow, Preston, Runcorn, Crewe and Stafford. But even if he couldn’t see what was on the committee’s screens, Joe could have troubled to look at the “Economic Case for HS2” document which has been in the public domain since October 2013. Because there as Figure 27 he would have seen the “HS2 Phase 1 train service for demand modelling” which clearly shows HS2 trains linking those stations to Euston just as Virgin trains do now, just faster.

And when the Select Committee published those presentation slides today, it turned out that is exactly what they had been seeing. Poor old Joe. He’s been to enough Select Committee hearings, notably to be slapped down for waffling, he knows how they take evidence, how could he have overlooked what might have been on the slides? Deliberately for the sake of a cheap scare story, that’s how.

But it gets worse for him. Joe went on to claim, on the basis of no evidence whatsoever, that all long-distance WCML services to Euston would be withdrawn. But as the slides clearly show, long-distance services will remain for those routes and stations not receiving an HS2 alternative. Chester and stations to North Wales? Present and correct. Stoke and Macclesfield? An hourly direct train to Milton Keynes and Euston. Coventry? A half-hourly service, both calling at Milton Keynes for commuters to that major employment location, and leaving Coventry’s post-HS2 service to London as frequent as, and faster than, Bristol Temple Meads has now.

But Joe’s scare falls flattest on its face when he claims that Wolverhampton and Sandwell & Dudley would lose their present hourly London trains. Because there in black and white (OK, in yellow) is the plan, not just an hourly train as now, but two limited-stop trains every hour to Euston. Yes, the service Joe claims will be lost is actually doubled.

With a respect for fact like this, Joe’s totally unsubstantiated claim that this means “£8.3 billion of cuts to classic services” might be considered suspect by the most innocent of readers. And they would be right. It is true that in the Economic Case analysis (table 9 on page 78) is a figure of £8.265 billion, labelled “classic line savings”. So what’s that all about? Well first, it refers to the full network in Phase 2, not Phase 1. Then, it’s a Present Value, that is, 60 year’s worth of annual sums all rolled into one. So the annual figure relevant to Phase 1 will be a lot – and I mean a lot – smaller. Which is why Joe doesn’t quote it.

But whatever it is, is Joe right to paint this as “cuts”? Got it in one, no he isn’t. Go back to the beginning, and remember that, apart from the new Curzon St services, the HS2 service for Phase 1 is basically the present Virgin pattern unplugged from the WCML at Handsacre and plugged into HS2 to Euston instead. So we have, for instance, an HS2 train every hour that runs from Liverpool, calls at Runcorn and Stafford, and then on to Euston on HS2. The cost in terms of fuel, maintenance, crew and fleet leasing should be charged to HS2, no-one would dispute. But that train replaces a Virgin service that calls at Runcorn and Stafford, then to Euston on the WCML. So of course the saving from replacing that train with the HS2 service should be deducted from the cost of running the HS2 train. Same stations, same destination, and faster. What has been “cut”? Nothing.

Well done, Joe. Nothing like putting your foot in your mouth and shooting yourself in it. The Select Committee know what they were shown by Prof McNaughton, they know how Joe twisted it, and they know his true colours. The real losers in this are the people Joe claims to represent.

An example of how Hs2 will benefit the North

18 Wednesday Feb 2015

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I’m writing this whilst travelling on Grand Central’s 06:55 service from Bradford to London Kings Cross. I’m a regular user of their trains as they get me from Halifax to the capital in just over 3 hours. They’re comfortable with very competitive fares and have free wifi throughout the train. The West Riding services first started running in May 2010. In the early days passenger numbers were sparse, nowadays they can be full & standing – even in First Class!

Grand Central’s trains are popular with both business and leisure travellers as they offer the residents of Yorkshire a fast direct service to London that allows you to go there & back in a day if you want to. As an aside, GC regularly top the Passenger Focus poll as Britain’s highest-rated long distance train operator for customer satisfaction.

But, hang on – this is something the opponents of High Speed 2 say is what’s bad for the North. They claim Hs2 will suck all the economic life out of the North & only benefit the capital. This train (and me) are perfect examples of why this is nonsense. You see, for 25 years I lived in London. Now I live in Yorkshire – and the only way I can make that possible is by better rail connections between the two. A lot of my work is centered on London. If I don’t have easy access to it I have to move closer or move back. As it is now, I can command a London wage & transfer that spending power back home to Yorkshire. I’m not alone in this as the growing numbers of business travellers using Grand Central’s trains attest to.

So, next time you hear Hs2 opponents like Huddersfield MP Barry Sheerman banging on about how Hs2 would be bad for the North, remind them of the success of Grand Central & how it’s allowed Southerners like me to move away from London – & bring our prosperity with us.

An ode to Joe (Rukin)

16 Monday Feb 2015

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A friend has just sent me this. It’s too good not to share with the world so, enjoy!

Joe Rukin told such Dreadful Lies,
It made one Gasp and Stretch one’s Eyes;
He hasn’t, from his Earliest Youth,
Had the least Regard for Truth,
And in what’s written by Joe Rukin,
Reality don’t get a look-in.
*************************************
Now, for his waffle we must pity,
The HS2 Select Committee.
They once, in fact, last Wednesday,
Knowing he’d have much to say,
On things that views are keenly sought on,
Interviewed Prof A McNaughton,
Who set out with alacrity,
The truth about Capacity.
“We can’t have that” cried Rukin J,
And scrambled into print to say,
From Runcorn, Stockport and Wilmslow,
No more London trains would go,
While Coventry would have none left,
And Wolverhampton be bereft,
(Well, actually he went on Twit-ter,
won’t that won’t fit).
But Joe forgot, the silly Clown,
That long ago had been set down,
The service pattern to be run,
By Trains on HS2 (Phase 1),
And what makes Joe sound rather comic,
Is all in “The Case (Economic)
For HS2”, where plain to see,
Is “Trains per hour for Stockport – 3”
Then “Wilmslow – 1”, and “Runcorn – 2”,
And something similar for Crewe.
***********************************
Well, if that sets Joe’s pants alight,
There’s more – the interesting sight,
Of PFMv4.3,
(Pron. Pee Eff Emm vee 4 point 3),
“Assumptions Report”, which shines a lamp on,
Trains per hour for Wolverhampton,
Now just one to London Town,
But as page 44 sets down,
(And surely this will tickle you),
These will be “cut” from one to TWO!
************************************
Lazy journos wanting free
Copy, have a friend in he,
Who only fools those silly men,
The IEA and Beleben.
But by the sensible and learn-ed,
Rukin and his gang are spurn-ed.

Shimbleshanks, with apologies to Hilaire Belloc

 

Joe Rukin: The anti Hs2 mobs lies get bigger & bolder.

13 Friday Feb 2015

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As the anti Hs2 campaign sees any sign of success slipping further & further away their campaign has become increasingly desperate. This has meant that their lies have got bigger, bolder & more stupid…

On Wednesday, Professor Andrew McNaughton gave evidence to the High Speed Rail Committee on the capacity that would be released on the WCML after Hs2 opens. In a breathtaking example of lying through his teeth, StopHs2 Campaign Manager Joe Rukin has twisted McNaughton’s evidence to allege that “HS2 Ltd admit they will scrap all current long distance trains to Euston”

Here’s the press release Rukin has cobbled together: http://stophs2.org/news/13115-13115

And here’s the evidence that McNaugton gave to the Committee: http://www.parliament.uk/documents/commons-committees/hs2/oral-evidence/110215_Uncorrected_Afternoon.pdf

The relevant pages are 41 to 49.

Rukin asserts that “McNaughton has finally admitted that towns and cities in the Midlands, Scotland, Wales and The North West could lose direct services to London” Really? Where? What McNaughton actually said was this;

“We take off the main line most of the long distance non-stop services, because the purpose of HS2 is to serve cities on the long-distance network”

McNaughton went on to say “The effect for stations on the existing line is that, instead of seeing long -distance trains pass them by, albeit quite regularly, there is the opportunity to introduce new trains that serve those stations”

McNaughton also explained what the Transport Minister wanted “Now, the Secretary of State has set out some principles for how the West Coast Main Line ought to be reused and we worked within those, in doing this illustration They’re things like, broadly, where people have a train service to London, after HS2 comes in, there ought to be broadly a comparable-type service but, balanced against that, the opportunity to improve commuting to the places that most need improved commuting”

So, how can Rukin possibly justify his claim? Clearly, he can’t. It’s an obvious & very stupid lie, especially as McNaughton gave his evidence to a Parliamentary Committee where his words were recorded & transcribed. Rukin’s relying on gullible & lazy journo’s not to check their facts. After all, only the really stupid or geographically challenged will believe Hs2 Ltd will “scrap all current long distance trains to Euston” when, err – Hs2 will run into, oh yes – Euston….

Rukin repeats his lies by quoting himself (in his own press release, how’s that for ego!) “We have always said this means for dozens of towns and cities across England, Scotland and Wales ‘losing the trains you currently have”

So where’s this little revelation confirmed by McNaughton’s presentation? Nowhere. In fact, it’s completely contradicted by these words; “We’ve effectively stripped the long-distance non-stopping services off the West Coast Main Line fast lines and into that now virtually empty railway started to show the types of services that could operate, particularly to pick up the commuter growth areas, which are part of the Government’s central strategy, out at Milton Keynes, Northampton, Rugby and so forth. “

So, McNaughton actually gave evidence that new services & extra trains would run, not less.

There’s also the small matter that Hs2Ltd can’t “scrap all current long distance trains to Euston” as that’s not their decision to make as Rukin well knows. What services run after Hs2 opens will be decided by the Office of Rail Regulation, the Secretary of State for Transport & the Dft in conjunction with stakeholders (something else McNaughton made clear).

Rukin has a long & colourful history of telling porkies but this one could really blow up in his face. He’s lied about the facts presented to a Parliamentary Committee that he’s given evidence to himself. So, what does that say about his integrity, the worth of his words & the weight of his evidence? Somehow, I don’t think the High Speed Rail Committee will be impressed. They’ve shown they don’t tolerate fools gladly.

UPDATE: 14th February.

If Rukin & StopHs2 think this is going to blow over they’re in for a real disappointment. The High Speed Rail Committee have announced they will publish the slides that went with Prof McNaughton’s evidence next week. Rukin penned his lies without seeing them. Once they’re available & I’ve had a chance to look at them, I’ll be blogging again. StopHs2 are in for a very uncomfortable time. As Shakespeare’s saying goes, ‘the truth will out’…

A good example of the need for Hs2.

10 Tuesday Feb 2015

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I’m typing this on board a CrossCountry service from Manchester Piccadilly to Birmingham, a journey I do on a regular basis. The trip will take me 91 minutes on a cramped & not exactly environmentally friendly 4 -car Voyager. When Hs2 is built the same journey will take just 41 minutes on a modern, spacious, high-speed electric train, slashing a massive 50 minutes off the time. Currently rail only has around 6% of the travel market between the two cities. Imagine what slashing 50 minutes off the time will do to encourage modal shift from roads & encourage more people to travel between our major regional cities by rail?

It’s exactly these regional time savings those opposed to Hs2 hate folk drawing attention to. They prefer to focus all their attention on London. So, let’s ignore them & look at some other projected journey time savings.

Leeds to Birmingham will be down from 1hr58 to just 57m.

Newcastle to Birmingham will be down from 3hr14 to 2hr07.

Nottingham to Birmingham Interchange will be down from 1hr46 to just 32m.

Bristol to Edinburgh will be down from 5hr49 to 3hr21

Cardiff to Leeds will be down from 4hr07 to 3hr13

There are many more examples given on Hs2 Ltd’s website here:

http://www.hs2.org.uk/about-hs2/facts-figures/connecting-britain

Of course, it’s not just about intercity journey time savings. The line I’m traveling on is also heavily used by local, inter regional & freight services. When the West Coast timetable was speeded up in 2008 some stations around Stoke were closed or lost their services to clear paths for fast Virgin Trains services to Manchester. Between 2004 – 2008 Stone station lost its rail services entirely. Now it has an hourly service provided by London Midland. There’s no hope of improving this as the capacity (until Hs2 is built) isn’t available. Eturia station closed on 30 September 2005. It was demolished to allow the line speed in the area to be raised from 60mph to 85-90mph. Local rail services were sacrificed to allow faster & more frequent Intercity expresses to run (and not just here around Stoke but also elsewhere on the West Coast Maine Line (WCML). Hs2 will allow us to reverse this process by removing those capacity eating non-stop services. Instead, those paths can be used by those trains we need to encourage greater modal shift – local, inter regional & freight. Without Hs2, that will never happen.

Incidentally, 51M who offered a supposed ‘alternative’ to Hs2 would have seen further cuts to services around Stoke. To allow more expresses, they’d have closed Stone & other stations, withdrawn the local services and didn’t even think about freight. Some ‘alternative’

UPDATE.

Since I first published this earlier today. Richard Wellings of the right wing ‘Think Tank’ the Institute for Economic Affairs (in reality a lobbying front for various anonymous big business interests like the tobacco & oil industry) has tried to claim on Twitter that there’s no demand for better rail services between Manchester & Birmingham. What? Two of our top 10 major cities by population (& top 5 if you include the Greater Manchester area)? To try & claim slashing 50 minutes off won’t result in modal shift to rail suggests to me Wellings is no real economist – just an apologist for industries which are scared of the expansion of greener transport modes.

UKIP & the anti HS2 mob are at it again (aka stitched up like a kipper!)

08 Sunday Feb 2015

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My previous blog about UKIP & the anti Hs2 campaign both being a bunch of fantasists caused some squeals from the certain quarters. So, you can imagine my amusement when today’s events in the media only proved what I was saying.

The Sunday Times ran a piece on some politicians packing their Twitter accounts with fake followers. One of the folk featured was none other than UKIPs candidate for Aylesbury Chris Adams, who tweets as @_Chris_Adams. He’s often tweeted nonsense & downright deceit about Hs2. Today the Times revealed that Adams claimed 30,000 Twitter followers whilst following 25,400 others whom he claimed to have ‘checked manually’. Yet, within a day of the ST contacting him he’d removed 25,200 people, leaving him following just 200. How odd. Unsurprisingly, he soon started hemorrhaging followers! One is forced to ask, what is it about UKIP & fake numbers? If it’s not Romanians, it’s…

This tactic of packing your Twitter account with either fake followers or following accounts who guarantee to follow you back to make yourself look important & have influence seems to be common to the anti Hs2 mob too. I’ll highlight one of their more laughable Tweeters in another blog.

You have to wonder. If the anti Hs2 campaign really does have the genuine mass support they claim. Why do so many of them have to resort to faking figures?

 

 

 

Link

UKIP and the anti Hs2 campaign. Fantasists who are well suited

28 Wednesday Jan 2015

Posted by in Hs2, Politics, Railways, Transport, UKIP

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One of the many laughable claims from the anti Hs2 campaign is that there’s millions of people who will ditch all other political considerations & priorities to vote for any party that opposes Hs2. Antis try & pretend they have an army of supporters up & down the country who are ready to cause a political earthquake because of Hs2. Like their other claims, this one’s another load of hot air.

UKIP, being the cynical vote chasers they are have ditched their 2010 manifesto pledge to but not one but THREE high speed lines & come out in opposition to Hs2, hoping to hoover up all these votes that are supposedly waiting to be had. The problem is, they don’t exist. UKIP have been lied to by the anti campaign that doesn’t command anything like the level of support they claim & certainly doesn’t have a massive vote bank to hand to UKIP.

Evidence of this is all around us.

Firstly, let’s look at people’s main concerns. Here’s a recent Guardian poll that asked voters what issues most concern them:

http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2014/9/23/1411459719741/MoriIssues.png …

And where’s Hs2 on that list? Nowhere. It doesn’t even rate a mention. People have other prorities. The only people who really care enough to change their vote are some of the people who are directly affected because they live on the route of Hs2. But, many of these people aren’t that die-hard either.

Another good example is the supposed anti Hs2 ‘heartlands’ of Warwickshire & the Chilterns/Bucks.

In 2013 UKIP were confidently expecting they’d gain a massive amount of new Councillors as people voted for them to show their opposition to Hs2. So, how many seats did they win in Warwickshire? Not a single one! The biggest gains were made by Labour – a party that actively supports Hs2. In other areas (such as the North-West) UKIP didn’t even bother campaigning on Hs2, preferring local issues instead.

And in Bucks & the Chilterns?

UKIP did gain seats there. But it was clear that the ‘Hs2 effect’ was confined to the areas the route will actually pass through.

Interestingly enough, the picture for UKIP in the Chilterns has got worse, not better since 2013. In December 2014 there were elections for two Councillors in the Aylesbury Vale district (another supposed anti ‘stronghold). Both were won by, the supposedly unelectable Liberal Democrats!

http://www.aylesburyvaledc.gov.uk/news/2014/dec/liberal-democrats-win-gatehouse-southcourt-elections/

To add to UKIPs woes, both their rebadged former Tory MPs voted FOR Hs2 & one, Mark Reckless put Farage in the firing line by restating his support for Hs2 as a UKIP MP.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11170215/Mark-Reckless-refuses-to-back-scrapping-HS2-in-first-public-split-with-Ukip-leader-Nigel-Farage.html

Farage was forced into admitting that Hs2 is not a ‘big ticket issue’ for the party.

2015 has got off to an even worse start as a Chilterns UKIP Cllr has defected to the Tories.

http://www.bucksherald.co.uk/news/more-news/updated-ukip-defector-i-m-not-right-wing-enough-for-party-1-6544468

This has exposed the fact that neither UKIP or the Tories are really that worried by the anti Hs2 campaign. It’s been clear for some time that anti’s have been writing political cheques they can’t cash by promising levels of support they don’t have. It seems that fact has finally dawned on UKIP too. The antis also seem to have quietly dropped their ineffective ‘no votes for you with Hs2’ as it scared no-one & didn’t persuade a single MP to change sides.

The forthcoming general election has the potential to be a disaster for the anti Hs2 campaign who’ve firmly nailed their flag to the UKIP mast. The party’s been battered in the media & the polls as their extremist tendencies, fruitloop membership & infighting has attracted negative attention, the idea that it will be in any position to deliver on its promise to ‘StopHs2’ looks more & more ridiculous as time goes on.