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Paul Bigland

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Financial spin & contradictions from the anti Hs2 mob.

25 Wednesday Nov 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Anti Hs2 mob, Economic illiteracy, Hs2, Hs2aa, Northern Powerhouse, Politics, Rail Investment, StopHs2, Uncategorized

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Hs2, Hs2aa, StopHs2

Today’s not been a good day for the anti hs2 campaign despite their high  expectations. For some reason they’d convinced themselves that there was trouble on the horizon for Hs2 and that the Autumn spending review might even see Hs2 cancelled as the Government ran out of money for investment.

For days they’d been circulating nonsense comparisons such as ‘defense spending or Hs2’ or  even ‘Police Officers or Hs2’. In the end the Chancellor made complete fools of them! Not only did he find new money for the armed forces and didn’t cut the police budget – he also confirmed extra money for transport investment including Trans-Pennine electrification and confirmed the Hs2 budget at £55.7bn in 2015 prices.

funding envelope

The poor anti Hs2 mob didn’t know how to respond. StopHs2’s Penny Gaines and Joe Rukin had been sitting by their keyboards, waiting to spin what they could, but found the cupboard was bare. They managed a few desultory tweets but Osborne had clearly wrong-footed them.

Once the news broke that the Hs2 budget had been adjusted they tried the usual daft spin to pretend that the budget for Hs2 is the same as the cost of Hs2. They were helped by one or two confused Journo’s who managed the same feat, so I must give credit to the BBC’s Paul Scoins (@paulscoins) who corrected a tweet when I pointed this out to him.

What wrong -footed the antis even more was the revelation that the updated budget also included the budget estimate for the Hs2 trains, meaning the increase was far smaller than they’d be trying to spin! What they’d failed to understand was the 2015 cost is simply the 2011 cost adjusted for inflation. Of course, if you’re going to adjust the Hs2 budget for inflation you also have to adjust the benefits of Hs2 by the same amount. Watch some of the antis really struggle with that little fact…

Meanwhile, in one of those wonderful ironies, whilst StopHs2 and a few other antis were trying to pretend that this is a real cost increase in Hs2, Hilary Wharf, a member of the other remaining anti Hs2 Group – Hs2aa – was with a group from Potter Row who were presenting their petition to the Hybrid Bill Committee. Wharf and Co are arguing for a fully bored tunnel under the Chilterns. Part of their argument was that the actual costs of tunnels can come in lower than initial budgets- a position in diametric opposition to their fellow travellers at StopHs2!

Worse was to come as details of Sir Peter Hendy’s report into Network Rail was released. This exposed the anti Hs2 mobs scaremongering on Hs2 sucking money from rail investment was complete nonsense. You can read the details on RAIL magazines website.

The great ‘paid more than the PM’ non-story

25 Wednesday Nov 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Peter Jones, Uncategorized

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Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Hypocrisy

As the anti Hs2 campaign gets more desperate they’re reduced to recycling old stories, the latest one being that some Hs2 staff are paid more than the Prime Minister (who is paid £150,000).

Their problem is this tactic only goes to prove the old adage that “people who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones”

Here’s some great examples.

Camden curmudgen & serial ranter Peter Jones spits his usual venom at Hs2 and avoids the fact Camden Council pays the Chief Executive, Deputy Chief executive and Finance Director more (see here).

Meanwhile, Stop Hs2 windbag Joe Rukin jumped in with both feet, ignoring the fact his local county council (Warks) pays its Chief Executive over £172k…

Even more unfortunately, the National Trusts Hs2 Officer Steve Field climbed on the bandwagon. He seemed unaware the NT (a charity) has been criticised for paying several of its senior staff large salaries whilst leaving the rank & file employers on low pay. Ironically, the same paper Field quotes (The Telegraph) ran an article in 2013 that heavily criticised the NTs top heavy salaries, such as the Trusts former Director General who was on £179k..

I’m sure there’s going to be plenty more examples….

The truth is, the PM’s salary is a lousy yardstick for anything.

Another manic few days…

18 Wednesday Nov 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Travel, Uncategorized, Work

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Travel, Work

It’s been lovely to have a couple of days at home but these things never last long. Tomorrow I have to be up at silly o’ clock to head over to a school near Wigan to do a job for Network Rail that involves pupils and a “sleb”. After which I meander across to Derby to get ready for the Rail Exec gala at the Roundhouse where I’m booked to go up on stage and award a prize for the Rail Engineer’s photography competition. This will be a novel experience as I’ll be on the other end of a camera for a change!

I’m sure it’ll be a great event and I’m looking forward to catching up with friends and colleagues. The fly in the ointment is that I have to be in London by 09:30 the next morning to do a job for RAIL magazine. Still, I’ll get back home Friday night, which is a bonus.

The ‘good’ news is that the job that would have seen me working trackside out in rural Lincolnshire over the weekend has been cancelled. This means I have the luxury of a weekend at home – albeit one filled with editing, filing etc…

I have to admit, it’s a varied life in this game.

 

Double-deck trains mean we don’t need HS2? Here’s the reality.

18 Wednesday Nov 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Anti Hs2 mob

≈ 3 Comments

Tags

Anti Hs2 mob, Double-deck trains, Hs2, Rail Investment

I originally wrote this blog in response to some anti Hs2 nonsense back in November 2015. I’ve revised it now as it’s a useful look at the pros and cons of double-deck trains – especially in the UK as DD trains are one of the things opponents of Hs2 often say are a viable alternative.

How can double-deck trains fit in the UK?

The simple answer is – they can’t as things stand. The UK loading gauge on most routes simply precludes their use.  But this is not just the height of trains we’re talking about – it’s the length of the vehicles too. Let’s delve into a bit of history. When our Victorian network was built the railways ran short (30ft long) 4-wheel coaches. In fact, these were still being built right up to the end of the Victorian era. What this meant was the railways could get away with some tightly curved platforms and tracks as the coaches could fit around them.

DG07795. 455837.Clapham Jn. 4.10.06.

The picture above shows Clapham Junction now with a train of 19.83m long class 455 vehicles in platforms with a pretty fierce reverse curve. Fancy trying to fit longer vehicles in here without the horrendous rebuilding costs & disruption to the UK’s busiest station that would entail?

Gradually (to improve comfort & with the invention of the bogie) coaches got longer & some doubled in size to reach 60-62 foot long. The issue with this is (and always was) the overhang of the coaches on curves which governs how tight platforms & other infrastructure can be. For many years British Rail standardised on coaches that were 57 ft 0 in (17.37 m) or 63 ft 6 in (19.35 m). Eventually the Intercity fleet standardised on 23m long vehicles whilst commuter and local services used 20m long vehicles as the maximum that could fit many tight platforms.

Why does this matter to double deck trains? Simple – because of the amount of room taken up by stairwells and all the ancillary equipment that used to be slung beneath the underframe between the bogies (where the lower deck is on DD coaches) but now has to be fitted inside the bodyshell. Here’s a few examples.

DG124463. Interior. DPZ push-pull set. Innotrans 2012. Berlin. Germany. 19.9.12

DG124472. Interior. DPZ push-pull set. Innotrans 2012. Berlin. Germany. 19.9.12

FDG06906. 8652. Stairs. Amsterdam. Holland. 1.5.08

There’s no benefit on capacity of a double-deck 20m vehicle as the stairwells at either end take up so much room it cancels out the seats provided on the upper deck. A 23m vehicle will give you around 12-13% extra capacity. It’s only when you get into longer vehicle lengths that DD coaches make sense. But here’s the rub – those longer coaches won’t fit on much of the network. Not only that, but they would even be restricted on some lines they could because of the curvature on certain station platforms or tight curves where they’d foul adjacent lines. For example. SouthWest trains use 23m long Class 444s – but these were banned from platforms 1-4 at Waterloo (thus reducing the flexibility of the railway). Those platforms were recently rebuilt and lengthened at great expense and disruption.

Oh, and don’t even ask how much headroom you might have on the top deck. Even in Europe this can be quite tight. With the UK’s restricted loading gauge you’d be lucky to be able to stand upright if you were above 5’6″- hardly good when the average height is 5’9″ & will only increase over the next few decades!

So, what seems a simple idea proves to be increasingly complex when you look at the details – something the anti hs2 mob never do anyway. Put simply, the capacity to be gained from double-deck trains doesn’t make up for either the cost of adapting the network to make them fit or the reduction in operational flexibility (and thus track capacity). What you gain on the swings you lose on the roundabouts.

You could add 12-13% capacity to coaches at great expense, but reduce the overall capacity of the railway and find your gain is even less. But how much time does that 13% buy you? At the current rate of growth it’s less than a couple of years on some routes. At best it might be a decade on others. But at what cost? In 2005 Stagecoach carried out a study into running DD trains & found just the short bit between Waterloo and Clapham Junction would have cost almost £1 billion to convert for full-scale double deck trains (The Times, June 2005).

Then what?

Oh, and double-deck trains don’t add an ounce of track capacity – exactly the opposite in fact. You might be able to fit a few more people on the 08:10 from Euston to Birmingham, but the dwell time (the amount of time it takes to load/unload passengers) at intermediate stations is much longer for DD trains than normal ones, so the train that’s only a few minutes behind is rapidly catching up with you, leading to delays. If you want a reliable timetable you have to cut trains out of it, negating the whole point of the ‘extra’ capacity.

This is a serious ‘alternative’ to Hs2? Of course not. Hs2 is designed to take intercity trains off the classic network. DD trains don’t add any capacity to our lines, they simply allow a few more folks to get on existing services. besides, would you want to travel long-distance in one of these cramped vehicles?

It’s time the anti Hs2 mob stopped grasping at silly straws.

I’ve a small favour to ask…
If you enjoy reading this or any of the other blogs I’ve written, please click on an advert or two. You don’t have to buy anything you don’t want to of course – although if you did find something that tickled your fancy that would be fab! – but the revenue from them helps me to cover some of the cost of maintaining this site (which isn’t cheap and comes out of my own pocket). Remember, 99% of the pictures used in my blogs can be purchased as prints from my other website –  https://paulbigland.zenfolio.com/

Or – you can now buy me a coffee! https://ko-fi.com/paulbigland68312

Cheers!

Paul

Crazy (& obnoxious) anti hs2 campaigner of the week No15

14 Saturday Nov 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Anti Hs2 mob, Crazy anti Hs2 campaigner of the week, Paris terror attack, Peter Jones

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Anti Hs2 mob, Crazy anti Hs2 campaigner of the week, Paris terror attack, Peter Jones

As the anti Hs2 campaign continues to implode and gets more desperate by the week it’s become harder to single out a single campaigner for the weekly award. Nowadays, crazy sums up their whole campaign.

That changed today when Peter Jones, the obnoxious and libelous Camden campaigner came out with something so utterly crass and blinkered that it takes your breath away.

Like many people, I’ve spent the past 12 hours watching with horror as the tragic events unfolded in Paris. This morning it became clear just how awful the scale of the terrorist attack had been. Along with people worldwide I was moved to show solidarity with Paris and the people caught up by displaying a symbol drawn up by a young man who then shared it on social media. That symbol has since gone viral. You can read about it here – although I’m sure many of you will have already seen it.

Enter Peter Jones, who posted this on Twitter this morning (hence my reply);

dd fuckwit

Since then this has been retweeted by several other anti Hs2 campaigners. As their campaign’s collapsed cheap insults have become Jones’ and the anti hs2 mobs stock in trade. Typically, each time you think they couldn’t sink any lower they manage to dig another basement level. One can only hope that their increasingly extreme and unpleasant campaign isn’t digging basement levels but its own grave…

UPDATE:

To cement his title to the crown, Jones has added ambulance-chasing to his list of odious accomplishments. To compound French woes there has been a rail accident today. A high-speed test train has derailed on a yet to be opened TGV line, killing five of the technicians aboard. Jones triumphantly & sickly uses this incident in a crude attempt to scaremonger & smear high speed rail in general & Hs2 in particular, then pretends a 2014 incident in which a TER service hit a TGV was a second accident today!

TGV 1

TGV2

Note there’s not a single drop of sympathy anywhere for the dead and injured, or their families, just triumphalism. Jones and his fellow travellers in the anti Hs2 campaign are beneath contempt.

16 November UPDATE

Here’s proof (where any more needed) from this evening that Jones is a brass-necked hypocrite of the first water who has the cheek to accuse me of exploiting tragedy!

DD hypocrisy

I’ve a small favour to ask…
If you enjoy reading this or any of the other blogs I’ve written, please click on an advert or two. You don’t have to buy anything you don’t want to of course – although if you did find something that tickled your fancy that would be fab! – but the revenue from them helps me to cover some of the cost of maintaining this site (which isn’t cheap and comes out of my own pocket). Remember, 99% of the pictures used in my blogs can be purchased as prints from my other website –  https://paulbigland.zenfolio.com/

Or – you can now buy me a coffee! https://ko-fi.com/paulbigland68312

Thank you!

The anti Hs2 mob retreat into a bunker

11 Wednesday Nov 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, StopHs2

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Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, StopHs2

Just when it seemed the anti Hs2 campaign had hit a new low with their pear tree stunt they managed to pull yet another rabbit out of the hat – and this one is a stunner!

Here’s some background. A few years ago StopHs2 used to organise a national gathering of anti Hs2 groups at the Staffordshire showground. Here’s one of their press releases puffing the 2013 event. In those heady days they’d punt the event to all and sundry, sell tickets at £10 a pop and advertise “a huge range of speakers and stands”. The media would be invited and even a few MPs would attend. Here’s  the 2013 programme.

How things change! When the Hs2 Hybrid Bill passed 2nd reading with a stonking majority of 411 the light began to dawn. People were already dropping away and ‘action’ groups folding but the process accelerated. This led to the antis cancelling the 2014 gathering, scrapping any public demonstrations & increasingly taking refuge in social media.

And in 2015? There was complete radio silence about any planned event – until today – when this was slipped out in the Bucks Herald. Spot the difference. No media, no MPs, no tickets and no Staffs showground. It was all secret. There was no advertising of the event on any of their websites or anywhere else. Instead they had to be “hosted” by the Amersham group. How many turned up? No-one knows – because they refuse to say. There’s been no trumpeting of the “success” of the event on any of their websites – or on those of any of their dwindling number of supporters.

If any proof was needed that the anti Hs2 campaign’s dying – this is it – and they’ve supplied it themselves…

Oh, I do like to be beside the seaside…

10 Tuesday Nov 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Brighton, Travel

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Brighton, Travel

I’ve decamped to Brighton for a few days as my ‘other half’ has been seconded to the local Community Rail Partnership. As all I need is camera, laptop and internet connection I trotted along to keep her company.

Sadly, the weather isn’t up to much, being worthy of a Spike Jones “Hello Muddah, Hello Fadduh” type postcard rather than a glowing endorsement of the British seaside. Still, it’s great to be back down here again as it gives me the opportunity to do some exploring whilst researching some more station buffets and bars for a forthcoming magazine article. Of course, there’s chance for a few more rail and travel pictures too, which you can find on my Zenfolio website, in this gallery.

Pop back later to find out what I’ve been up to…

Bonkers, utterly bonkers…

08 Sunday Nov 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2

≈ 1 Comment

Tags

Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2

There are times when I look at the anti Hs2 campaign and the only thing I can say is ‘Bless’! Tonight is one of those times. It seems they’re cock a hoop at getting an old pear tree on the route of Hs2 elected “tree of the year” and mentioned on BBC’s Countryfile.

Wow!

Contrast this with the fact the Hs2 Hybrid Bill sailed through 2nd reading in Parliament with a cross-party majority of 411 – by far the biggest majority of any Parliamentary Bill during the Coalition Government.

A vote for a pear tree will Stop Hs2?

Rather than celebrating the anti Hs2 campaign should be looking in a mirror and saying to themselves “we’re reduced to this”? There’s naivety and desperation in equal measures here. Can you honestly imagine Parliament being reconvened for an emergency debate on the news, or the Dept of Transport burning the midnight oil to come up with a response?

A BBC article reveals all. “Cubbington’s pear tree was selected after attracting more than a third of 10,000 votes for the best tree in England.”

So, just over 3000 votes then. That’s neither a ringing endorsement of the pear tree – or the Stophs2 campaign, which has gone pear-shaped!

At death’s door: The latest look at the anti hs2 campaign

08 Sunday Nov 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Hs2aa, StopHs2

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Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, Hs2aa, StopHs2

I thought it was time to update my look at the state of the anti Hs2 campaign now the conference season’s over & it’s effectively the end of the campaigning year. I’ll kick off with the monthly social media ‘scores on the doors’, which are as follows.

Anti hs2 stats 7 Nov 15

The standards caveat applies. Not all followers are supporters, some are simply there to keep an eye out on what’s going on. Also, whilst percentages are interesting they should be read in conjunction with the actual numbers. After all, a 50% increase on sweet bugger all isn’t much to celebrate.

I have nearly 9 months data to draw on now which paints a distinctly desperate picture. The figures show that anti hs2 campaigners best efforts to attract attention have failed. There’s been no discernible bounce from the conference season with only a handful of new followers being attracted on Twitter – and even less on Facebook.

The person who’s done the best is the former Communications Director of the defunct group AGAHST, Deanne Dukhan. The irony is, she’s done this by dropping tweeting about Hs2! Despite the fact AGAHST has folded & she’s now irrelevant I’m keeping her in to provide an useful comparison.

The antis twitter campaign is continuing to implode. Neither of the two remaining ‘national’ groups are doing anything newsworthy so the volume of tweets has decreased. They’re reduced to being a retweeting service or moaning about Hs2 and railways in general. we’re seeing bugger all from the local ‘action’ groups for the same reason – nothing’s going on. What we are seeing more of is the lunatic fringe of the campaign although how a few folk ranting on Twitter is meant to convince anyone in the political arena to cancel hs2 is a mystery.

Their Facebook campaign is even more dire. It’s well worth viewing the Stophs2 Facebook page as it offers a window on the soul of their campaign. Their problem is, it’s a bit like taking a tour of Bedlam! What you’ll see is a rag-bag of Ukippers and (presumably) Daily Mail & Express readers convinced the UK is going to hell in a hand cart because no-one is listening to them. If anything, it shows why the anti Hs2 campaign was bound to fail. Here’s a few examples;

FB 1

FB2

FB3

FB4

Now, does anyone think this sounds like a coherent and credible campaign? Of course not. What it does illustrate is that using social media is a double-edged sword. As well as helping a campaign it can also expose its weaknesses to the world…

Hs2aa’s Facebook page is even more dire. It contains little other than links to tweets from other people and comments by the same serial ranters! As a campaigning tool it’s both useless and an embarrassment. To add to Hs2aa’s woes their website is (accidentally or deliberately) compromised by a virus that means anyone with suitable software is warned off visiting.

Meanwhile, what’s happening in the real world away from social media. For the anti Hs2 campaign the answer is – not a lot. Their campaign’s completely lost momentum. Hs2aa have yet another legal appeal to be heard in December, beyond that – there’s nothing. Stophs2’s calendar is completely bare. Joe Rukin has a solitary appearance booked in front of the Hs2 Petitioning Committee. After that he’s free to keep writing job applications.

Contrast all this with Hs2 Ltd’s increasingly busy diary filled with consultations, suppliers events, tenders etc – and the almost weekly uttering of support from Government Ministers & members of the opposition, plus events like this weeks National Rail Conference.

As we head into the festive season it’s clear there’s going to be little Christmas cheer for the anti hs2 campaign. They’re staring into the abyss now. I’m willing to predict that 2016 will see one (if not both) of their national groups fold when they can no longer fool themselves that they can stop Hs2.

The anti Hs2 mobs latest nasty little tactic?

04 Wednesday Nov 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Anti Hs2 mob, Cyberattacks, Hs2, Hs2aa

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Anti Hs2 mob, Cyberattacks, Hs2, Hs2aa

Having failed to make any impact in the real world the anti Hs2 mob have fallen back on the internet and their imaginary friends to try and “spread the word” in order to try and keep their dying campaign going.

Except it seems it’s not just the ‘word’ they’re spreading…

Here’s what happens when you have virus protection software and try to visit the Hs2 Action Alliance’s website!

hs2aa

UPDATE:

It’s now the 1st December and the Hs2aa website still produces this message which rather says something about their lack of IT skills and access to them – or their ability to pay…

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