Category Archives: StopHs2

Crunching the StopHs2 social media stats: September 2018

30 Sunday Sep 2018

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It’s the end of September and it’s time to have a look at the StopHs2 ‘campaign’ social media stats. I’ve analysed the August numbers here.

Firstly, let’s get some context. There’s 6,567,433 folk who live in the 63 constituencies that Hs2 will run through. That’s a lot of people. Now, if the majority of them are up in arms about Hs2 you’d expect the sole surviving ‘national’ anti Hs2 group to have a large social media following, wouldn’t you?

In fact, their following is tiny. They have just 6180 on Twitter, or 0.094% of the 6.5 million

stophs2 twitter

On Facebook they only have 8604 followers, or 0.13% of 6.5 million. So, as you can see, they’re not exactly setting social media on fire. But those headline numbers are only part of the story. How many of those followers actually engage with them through comments, retweets aor likes? How many actually help ‘spread the word’?

Bugger all, as the next set of numbers shows. Here’s a look at every Tweet and Facebook post that StopHs2 have made in September with a number of people who’ve responded up to today. Lets have a look at Twitter first:

hs2 twitter

 

Their ‘best’ day for retweets was the 24th September, with a ‘massive’ 61 – or 0.98% of all their followers. So, not even 1% of their followers are spreading the word on Twitter, which tell you a lot about how active those followers are! Then again, if you can be arsed to look up who their followers actually are (it’s boring, trust me) you find a mish-mash of the far-right, a few greens, lots of anonymous accounts and the few who you think ‘what? Why?’ Here’s some examples.

followers 6

So, it’s a rabble, not a serious campaign. Nor will it influence anyone who matters. 91 of them follow me and I can see that a lot of them are people who’re just there to see what nonsense Stophs2 are spouting, they’re not actually supporters of the campaign. If Stophs2 are relying on Twitter to get their message out, they’ve failed miserably.

Now let’s go and have a look at Facebook.

stophs2 facebook

Their ‘best’ result was on the 6th September when they posted pictures of Chiltern viaduct designs and 348 people shared it. That’s just 4% of all their followers. Most of the time they don’t even make it into triple figures and have less than a 1% response rate. Now, does that sound like a growing campaign to you? Mind you when you see some of the responses it becomes clear that many of their followers have – how shall I put this – a tenuous grasp on reality. Have a look at these ones.

hs2 fb

And…

fb2

Meanwhile, their ‘relaunched’ campaign is due to hold a protest outside the Tory party conference which should be fun as their last one at the Labour conference was a disaster! I’ll keep you posted…

Stophs2? Give over…

26 Wednesday Sep 2018

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It’s the party conference season once more, which means StopHs2’s inflatable elephant is dug out of storage, checked for punctures and wheeled out for utterly pointless ‘demonstrations’ of Stophs2 impotence outside the events.

Gone are StopHs2’s ‘glory’ days when they could afford a stand inside the conferences and find enough volunteers to staff it. In those days you’d get Penny Gaines tweeting that everyone they talked to was solidly against Hs2 and that *really* every MP (Labour or Tory) privately opposed the project.

It was all tosh of course. Now the money and supporters have dried up, Hs2’s being built and it’s all rather pointless really.

A final effort to save the campaign from oblivion was launched a couple of weeks ago by one of the surviving ‘action’ groups on phase 1 of the route. Not that you’d notice as it’s been yet another in a long-line of damp squibs. The meeting in Balsall Common in Warwickshire. Here’s a couple of excerpts from the email that did the rounds

” We hope to attract members from both the South and the North to this meeting. We recognise that most action groups on Phase1 have faded away and this meeting is called by Richard Lloyd of Berkswell and Archie Taylor of Burton Green. We will offer coffee and biscuits but refreshments are available at next door Tesco’s.
We have a glimmer of a chance to stop the whole project as costs escalate and Brexit approaches while those on Phase 2 are perhaps in a stronger position”

“Glimmer”? Talk about optimistic! The email goes on…

“But we also have to plan for the future. Are any of the Northern Groups planning to lobby the Labour Conference at Liverpool, a week later, on the 23rd? If they are, perhaps, a few of us can help with the pamphlets. As a Labour member, I intend to write to all Labour MPs in the first week of September but articles don’t always get to the MP. But if we can give out leaflets at Liverpool, we can certainly play the northern card with the east to west alternative. If we do have volunteers to leaflet, I might go up to the Conference myself.

Perhaps the Conservative Conference at Birmingham on September 30th is more significant and accessible. Again it would be great if we can get people along. Similarly we can work on leaflets before our meeting.

I would appreciate if you can come to our meeting, or you are ready to go to Liverpool to contact me. I hope people will make this meeting. It will be great to see people from the past. It is going to be very difficult to stop it but we have a chance if we join together. I will give more details about the meeting at a later date”

So, the ‘new’ plan is to re-run the same old tactics, only this time with less money, less people and less interest! Here’s the agenda for the meeting;

stophs2 2 agenda

Note that the other national groups AGAHST and Hs2aa didn’t bother turning up. That’s because they exist in name only. Their written ‘updates’ will probably have been as blank as the Governments benefits of Brexit! AGAHST folded years ago and Hs2aa haven’t been heard from since the summer of 2016!

I haven’t seen a copy of any conclusions from the meeting or list of how many attended, but I not that it’s had no media coverage or mention on the surviving groups Facebook pages or websites other than on from a Groups on the Leeds route which described it as a ‘good’ meeting and err, that’s it!

So, what’s been the result of the relaunch. Well, yesterday a couple of people did make it up to Liverpool with the inflatable elephant and duly set it up outside. How many of them were there? It’s impossible to tell as the only picture Stophs2 tweeted out doesn’t contain a soul!

elele

By this morning the tweet had amassed a grand total of 29 retweets and 39 likes from their 6175 Twitter followers, which tells you all you need to know really…

There is one video, which is an ‘interview’ of a very scruffy and dishevelled looking Joe Rukin, spouting his usual polemical bluster, but no-one else is in sight!

Contrast this pathetic performance with what was going on inside the Labour conference. Firstly, this tweet from train builder Bombardier showing some of their young apprentices meeting the Shadow Chancellor.

bombardier

Or this, from Siemens. Shame about the quality of the picture, but you get the gist,

sie

Or this…

prescott

To say that Rukin and Co have been outclassed and outgunned is an understatement! If this is a campaign that’s been relaunched, then it slipped straight off the stocks and did a submarine impression! I don’t expect any better at the Conservative conference. If I have the time I might even pop along so that we can get some proper pictures to gauge their support by.

Meanwhile, one last word about Liverpool. This is a proper demonstration Joe – oh, and look, that’s your very lonely elephant in the background!

sodem.PNG

sod 2.PNG

Stop Hs2? I had to laugh!…

12 Wednesday Sep 2018

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This morning there was a Parliamentary debate on Hs2 which had been organised by Bill Cash, the MP for Stone (on the Hs2 route in Staffs). Cash is, how shall we say – not entirely connected with the real world. Not only is he an ardent Brexit supporter (and we all know just how well that’s going), he’s also been rather creative in the past with his expenses.

Still, the debate he secured this morning kicked off promptly. It was meant to help ‘revitalise’ the campaign against Hs2 as it followed on from another opinion poll commissioned by the Daily Express that showed a ‘majority’ of people oppose Hs2.

There was only one problem

The anti Hs2 ‘campaign’ (and I use that word loosely) is so short of political support that hardly any MPs turned up to the debate! I counted 5 that actually spoke to criticise Hs2. Cash delivered a long ramble which was nothing new, it was just Cash rehashed. You might as well have played one of his old speeches on a monitor and saved the old boy the bother. The usual suspects followed, the most prominent of which was the MP for Chesham and Amersham, Cheryl Gillan. Embarrassment followed embarrassment when it became clear that the anti MPs were matched and indeed surpassed by MPs who’d turned up to speak in Favour of HS2. These included Sir Robert Symes MP, the former Chair of the phase 1 Hybrid Bill Cttee, Graham Stringer MP (former leader of Manchester City Council), and of course the under secretary of state for transport, Nusrat Ghani MP, who wound up the whole sorry shambles by pointing out the political arithmetic by highlighting the overwhelming numbers of MPs and Lords who supported HS2 compared to those who opposed. In short, it was a humiliation.

Here’s a couple of pictures of the ‘packed’ meeting room. You’ll notice that the gallery outnumbers the MPs

debate

minister

So, what of the Daily Express poll? Well, it’s a gauge of the number of people who’ll grumble about Government spending, but apart from that it’s worthless. If you inserted a multiple choice question that said “OK, so what are you actually going to do about HS2” you know what the answer would be: nothing – as we’ve seen from hard evidence over the years in local and general elections (much to UKIP’s chagrin). It’s just not an issue that will make people change who they vote for.

Crunching the Stophs2 August social media numbers

01 Saturday Sep 2018

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I’d mentioned that I was going to do this previously, so here they are – the social media numbers for sole remaining anti Hs2 ‘group’ (and I use that word loosely).

First, a bit of background. There are over 6.5 million people living in the 63 Parliamentary constituencies that HS2 will pass through. So, of the country really is ‘up in arms’ about HS2, you’d expect that the last group that’s still standing to oppose the project would have massive support – especially on social media as that’s the easiest way to join in a campaign from your armchair without having to actually do anything!

Unfortunately for Stop Hs2, that’s where real numbers expose hyperbole. I’ve crunched the August numbers on their Twitter and Facebook accounts and they make interesting reading. Well, not for them as the numbers are a complete embarrassment because they show how little support they really have.

Here’s the bottom lines. Stophs2’s Twitter numbers are up and down like a brides nightie as they seem to attract a lot of bots. That said, they’ve never moved much above 6100 for quite a while. Whilst that’s a ridiculously poor number, the amount of retweets and likes is even worse. What it suggests it that many of their Twitter followers are dead accounts.

Here’s the numbers. I’ve looked at every Tweet StopHs2 have in August. There’s very few so it’s not difficult. I’ve taken snapshots through August so that you can see how things progress – or not!

stophs2 twitter

The latest total for their ‘followers’ is 6142. Not exactly active, are they? The only day they’ve managed to get over 100 is the day they tweeted a Private Eye article and included the Eye’s Twitter address.

Here’s Facebook.

fb

Pathetic, isn’t it?

This is meant to be a ‘grassroots’ campaign. Clearly, someone’s poured weed killer on it.

Stop Hs2 number crunching.

13 Monday Aug 2018

Posted by in Anti Hs2 mob, Hs2, StopHs2

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I’ve not written anything about the anti Hs2 campaign for a while now, mainly because there’s nothing going on that’s worth writing about. To be honest, I’ve seen more life in a tramp’s vest! Apart from a few local groups still agitating in Yorkshire, there’s hardly anything to be seen – especially at a national level, where the campaign’s collapsed completely.

The only group that’s active (and I use that word in its loosest sense) is ‘StopHs2’ – otherwise known as the Penny & Joe show. Joe Rukin’s still not managed to find a proper job so he occasionally resorts to punching something out on the groups Facebook page or via their Twitter account. What they put out is very telling, because it’s purely reactive, not proactive. They’ve gone from campaigning to complaining. Everything they put out is a moan about Hs2, or the wider railway industry. There’s no campaign news, because there’s no campaign! Their problem is they’re increasingly shouting into space as no-one’s listening anymore – and that includes their supposed supporters. I’ve crunched some numbers to demonstrate the extent of their problem.

Firstly, here’s a bit of background. Hs2 will pass through 63 constituencies containing 6,567,433 people. In contrast, StopHs2 have 8439 Facebook followers whilst over on Twitter they have 6152 followers. Not exactly amazing numbers after 9 years, are they? That’s just 0.12% for Facebook and 0.09% on Twitter! I can’t help wonder why – if as was claimed – so many people are up in arms about Hs2 they’re not engaging with the sole remaining ‘national’ group set up to stop Hs2?

It gets worse!

How many of those 8439 on Facebook and 6152 on Twitter ever engage or respond? Bugger all! I’ve crunched the numbers for every Tweet and post for August. Here are the results;

stophs2 stats

Embarrassing, isn’t it? Does this sound like an active campaign to you? It’s worth bearing in mind this is after Hs2’s been in the news a lot recently. The truth is, apart from a tiny bunch of die-hards and trolls on social media, most people have given up and moved on. There is no active campaign and hasn’t been for several years now.

Here’s some examples of their tweets and Facebook posts and their responses.

stophs2 tweet 1

tweet 2

More people respond on Facebook than on Twitter.

fb

Often the responses are so out of touch with reality they’re classics!

res 1

Well, that’s worked really well for the last 9 years, hasn’t it? Ditto this response…

res 2

And then there’s the usual mad UKIPper nonsense.

kipper

Is it any wonder why no-one takes this tiny bunch of ‘eccentrics’ seriously anymore?

More on the Gilligoon fake furore…

23 Monday Jul 2018

Posted by in Hs2, Rail Investment, StopHs2

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Predictably, yesterday’s story (for that’s what it was) in the Sunday Times has caused the usual predictable outcry from Hs2 antis that the project should be cancelled. Equally predictably, non of them have bothered looking at the timeline of events (including a general election) that demonstrate this was never going to happen.

Not only that, but no-one’s bothered looking at the latest IPA Annual Report on Major Projects for 2017-18. Because if they had they’d have realised how Gilligan’s story focussing as it does on an outdated report really is today’s chip paper.

Firstly, let’s remind ourselves what the DCA ratings system is.

DCA ratings

The IPA report looks at several rail projects, not just HS2. These are;

Crossrail (moved from Green to Amber)

Thameslink (moved from Green to Amber)

Midland Mainline programme (remains on Amber)

Hs2 (remains on Amber/Red)

Great Western route modernisation (remains on Amber/Red)

North of England programme (remains on Amber/Red)

East-West rail (remains on Amber/Red)

Southwest route capacity (remains on Amber/Red)

Rail franchising programme (moves from Amber to Amber/Red)

Intercity Express Programme (moves from Amber to Red)

Eh? Hold on, the IEP programme, which is delivering new Hitachi built trains every week to GWR and soon to LNER ‘appears to be ‘unachievable’? Tell that to the passengers who’re riding on those trains!

DG302957. 800304. Bristol Temple Meads. 18.7.18

One of the ‘unachievable’ IEP programme trains (left) alongside one of the venerable HSTs they’re replacing, seen at Bristol Temple Meads earlier this month.

Of course, sensible, pragmatic people will take the IPA report for what it is, a guide, not gospel. But that’s not the anti Hs2 mob, obviously! The truth is, Hs2 has remained at Amber/Red now for several years. Looking back at the programme’s progress and timescale I doubt it will move from that for several more years (despite what then Transport Minister Patrick McLoughlin once claimed) especially as there’s still the final Phase 2b Hybrid Bill to make its way through Parliament.  Then there’s the construction contracts to be let for phases 2a and 2b. What is interesting is that despite all the claims from those opposing Hs2, the project’s never moved into the red category – which (if all the scaremongering over increased costs was true) you’d have expected it to.

Meanwhile, progress on Hs2 continues. On a project of such a vast scale there’s bound to be bumps along the road, but what’s clear is that those bumps are being ironed out. The next couple of years will be exciting times for the project. Away from all the hype and hyperbole, work continues every day, preparing the ground for the main civils work on phase 1 to start (just have a look around the Euston area to see that). In Parliament the Phase 2a Hybrid Bill Committee are making steady progress. There’s a complete absence of anti Hs2 groups gumming up proceedings this time as Hs2aa has folded and StopHs2 don’t even get a look-in. The Phase 2a bill is expected to get Royal Assent by the end of 2019, then we move on to the final Phase 2b bill. The project still maintains cross-party support, so there’s nothing to stop Hs2. There’s no national anti Hs2 campaign anymore, so barring a major political earthquake, the project’s unstoppable.

 

 

 

 

More anti Hs2 Gilligoonery in the Times today

22 Sunday Jul 2018

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Today’s Sunday Times carries yet another attempt at a hatchet job on Hs2 by one Andrew ‘transcription error’ Gilligan, a man who’s churned out stuff trying to discredit Hs2 as long as the project’s been going. Of course, none of his fanciful claims have come to pass, but that’s never stopped either him, or the gullibility of Hs2 anti’s who continue to grasp at every straw he throws them.

The latest stuff is that Gilligoon has supposedly been passed a copy of a report, dated December 2016, written by Paul Mansell, an IPA adviser embedded full-time in HS2. As usual, we have to take Gilligoon’s word for this and what its contents say as none of the report is reproduced in his article. Instead, we have to rely on snippets written in quotation marks. Such as,

“The assessment describes the scheme as “fundamentally flawed”, in a “precarious position”. And, the project is “highly likely” to go as much as 60% over budget and cost “more than £80bn”

So, it’s the usual cut and paste job by Gilligoon, where we have to rely on the great man’s reputation for accuracy and integrity. At least (for once), his article doesn’t use the standard lazy journalists phrase and claim that the report is ‘damning’.

The rest of the article is the usual mish-mash of previously reported speculation that’s been added to pad it out and try and make it seem more than it is. So, we get a repetition of the ConHome kite flying that Michael Gove’s been canvassing opinions that if he becomes PM, scrapping Hs2 would be a vote winner – ignoring the fact Gove’s just as  likely to end up in prison for his role in the vote Leave illegality as he is in No 10!

We also get treated to recycling the story that Hs2’s land purchase costs are billions over budget and – just for good measure – the story that Michael Byng has calculated that Hs2 will cost north of £100bn.

So, it’s the usual speculative numbers bullshit bingo! For years we’ve had Hs2 antis throw around invented numbers, each one more fanciful than the last. We’ve had £60, 80, 100, 123, 150 and even £200bn presented as the ‘true cost’ of Hs2 over the past 9 years!

Meanwhile, what’s happened in the real world since this report is meant to have been written (December 2016)? Here’s a timeline.

23 February 2017: Hs2 phase 1 gets Royal Assent.

8th June 2017: A general election. The one where ConHome tried to pretend that the Tories were serious about dropping Hs2!

17th July 2017: £6.6bn of Hs2 construction contracts were let. On the same day the Bill for hs2 Phase 2a was introduced into Parliament.

30th January 2018: The phase 2a bill passes 2nd reading with a massive majority of 295 to 12. The bill is now proceeding through Parliament.

Looking at events since December 2016 it’s clear that the Government has had several opportunities to pull the plug on Hs2. They haven’t. But hey, why let facts get in the way? Andrew Gilligan never has!

 

 

A classic own goal from Stophs2!

17 Tuesday Jul 2018

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I can’t think of when I last blogged about the Stop Hs2 campaign. Mainly because there’s nothing going on! There’s no active national campaign anymore, just a few local groups, most of which are moribund. Stop Hs2 (otherwise know as Joe Rukin and Penny Gaines) are a complete waste of space. Their ‘campaign’ consists of increasingly rare posts to their website, or the occaisional moan about Hs2 on Twitter and, err – that’s it. They’ve gone from proactive to reactive, swapping campaigning to stop Hs2 to nothing more than moaning about Hs2 (and railways in general). Not that they get much reaction. Officially, they’ve over 6,000 followers on Twitter, but it’s painfully obvious many of those accounts are defunct (or bots) as the retweet & response rathe is tiny. They’re lucky if to get a couple of dozen retweets or responses.

Until now…

Stupidly, one of the pair decided to make disparaging remarks about the fans of singer Harry Styles, who’ve been using the #hs2 hashtag to discuss the name of the artists second album. StopHs2 made the cardinal error of thinking the hashtag was somehow their property and posted a patronising response!

stophs2 styles

The reaction (understandably) was predictable. StopHs2 were schooled on politeness and how fanbases are international!

styles 1

styles 2

Some UK folk enjoyed StopHs2’s own goal…

styles 3

So, Stophs2 finally manage to make an impact on Twitter – and it leaves them with egg on their faces around the world!

When the StopHs2 campaign’s ‘out in force’ in Trowell!

06 Sunday May 2018

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Sometimes you’ve just got to laugh at the antics of what’s left of the anti Hs2 campaign. It’s rare that I blog about them nowadays as there’s really nothing going on at a national level and very little at a local one either, but I couldn’t help but have a chuckle at this abject nonsense from today.

Apparently, two ‘action’ groups on the Phase 2b route (Trowell and Erewash) combined ‘forces’ to stage a march along part of the route of Hs2 in order to draw attention to the scheme. Instead, what they’ve drawn attention to is how few of them there are. Here’s the piece from the Nottingham Post, which helpfully provides a video and pictures (link). Don’t worry, the video doesn’t last long – this isn’t exactly on the scale of a Soviet military parade! I count around two dozen people (including babies) – as the photo illustrating the article demonstrates.

Notts.PNG

So, let’s crunch some numbers. The Erewash constituency contains 95,778 people. The MP is Maggie Throup, who has voted to build Hs2. Trowell is in the Broxtowe constituency of MP Anna Soubry, who’s also voted to build Hs2. It contains 97,032 people. That’s a combined total of 192,810 people – of which two dozen have turned out to protest about Hs2.

One freelance journalist got a little carried away and described the demonstration on Twitter thus;

snow

I think Ms Snow may have confused the words force and farce…

There’s also a piece in the Derby Telegraph and a very optimistic interview with someone called Brent Poland, who claims they’re going to stop Hs2. How a few dozen people are going to do this without any political support (including from their own MPs) he never actually explains…

 

 

StopHs2: Their archive’s great for mapping their decline…

10 Tuesday Apr 2018

Posted by in election2015, General election, Hs2, StopHs2

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I was doing a bit of research the other day so I popped into the StopHs2 campaign’s website to look back through some of the deceitful nonsense and bluster they’ve spouted over the years. As you may have noticed, I do like a bit of number crunching! Whilst I was there I noticed that their archive’s a clear indicator of their gradual demise. Their archives go back to the spring of 2010, so I decided to have a look at how many articles they produced each year and tallied up the figures for each March and April. Here they are.

articles on stophs2 website

After being steady for so many years the decline since 2016 is marked. It’s hardly surprising as there’s nothing to report as nothing’s going on now the campaign’s collapsed. Most of the articles over the past couple of years have been reactive, complaining about Hs2 rather than campaigning to stop Hs2.

If you can take the time to browse through the archive there’s some hilarious predictions and pronouncements that haven’t aged well at all. There’s a rich vein of Joe Rukin’s  lies to be mined too!

I’ll leave you with this gem from April 2015. In it, Penny Gaines claims that “it’s worth reminding politicians that HS2 is a big issue in constituencies along the line” Really Penny? In the attached video Joe Rukin makes the same claim, highlighting Warwickshire North, the constituency where the outgoing MP Dan Byles (an opponent of Hs2) had a wafer thin majority of 54.

HS2 dominates election campaign in many constituencies

So, what was the result? Well, the new Tory candidate INCREASED the Tory majority by 3%, from 54 to 2,973 as the BBC reported here. So much for Hs2 being an election issue! The same happened on other parts of the route too as I pointed out in a blog at the time.

When the last one out turns out the lights on StopHs2 I do hope they leave their archive online as a testament of how not to run a campaign!