November 2021 brought us, after a long wait, the Integrated Rail Plan (IRP). Less than two years later, it has been blown away by something that is quite the opposite – something that is not integrated, and not all about rail, although if ‘Plan’ means a hastily compiled wish list of things that ought to happen anyway, a Plan it might be.

Of course, there’s two gargantuan holes in this ‘plan’. The £36bn ‘saved’ by scrapping HS2 North of Birmingham doesn’t actually exist as it hasn’t been borrowed yet, and many of the items on the list will fall foul of the footnote hidden away at the bottom of page 24. Few, if any of them are likely to pass the business case test.

The howlers in this Disintegrated Not-a-Plan (DNP), such as promising to build tram routes that opened years ago, have caught attention, but the elephant in the room has escaped comment – despite it being a £12 billion elephant, a third of the promised total spend of £36 billion. That elephant is that, having cancelled HS2 Phase 2 into Manchester, and the new approach from the West that HS2 would have built for Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) trains from Liverpool to share, £12 billion has had to be ‘protected’ for NPR to build an approach all on its own, without the benefit of HS2 trains to share it. Of course if NPR does that, a big lump of cost drops out of HS2 Phase 2b, which will overnight appear a much sounder investment.

It had also been proposed that NPR would take over HS2’s proposed Birmingham – Manchester services, and extend them to Leeds to make up for loss of the dedicated HS2 route via the East Midlands. This however becomes impossible without HS2 Phase 2b to Crewe and Phase 2a from Crewe to Birmingham, as there is no way on Earth that the existing lines have the capacity for those extra trains, particularly at the key bottleneck of Stafford.

Other elements of the IRP, less than two years old, are blown out of the water. The IRP carefully explained how truncating HS2’s Leeds/York line at a disused power station near Loughborough, and taking trains into Nottingham on existing lines, would release more capacity on the Midland Main Line for better interurban and local services that HS2’s dedicated route would have done. That never struck me as plausible, but now the DNP claims that the its predecessor IRP would have led to worse services at stations such as Leicester, Market Harborough and Kettering. No such nicety as evidence is produced to show why the DfT, the specifier of train services, would specify a worsening of services, nor any suggestion as to how the DNP would improve them (spoiler alert – it won’t), let alone improve connectivity between the South Midlands and Yorkshire and the North East in the way that HS2’s original plan would have done.

The IRP explained in great detail why Bradford should not have a new station on a TransPennine high speed line; now apparently that is essential, to the tune of £2 billion. Now I don’t mind at all if Bradford does have a high speed station after all, it’s only down the road from me in Halifax, but what has changed since the IRP to make what was once impossible so essential now?

Turning to other things that the DNP does propose, about £8 billion is apparently going to be spent on mending potholes. But if local authorities were properly funded, the potholes wouldn’t need mending in the first place, as mending of potholes is not a one-off job but an ongoing commitment. So where is the next tranche of pothole-mending funding going to come from – you can only cancel HS2 once! Weirdly this part of the DNP admits that the government is going to do a most un-Conservative thing in borrowing so as to fund revenue expenditure. It’s almost as mad as Liz Truss borrowing £bns to fund tax cuts for the rich.

One very good thing in the DNP is a promise to upgrade junctions north of Ely, downgraded from proper junctions to single-lead connections by Network SouthEast, but now part of the Felixstowe – Nuneaton freight artery. In fact it is so good a thing to increase freight capacity from the East Coast Ports that one wonders why it has been so long coming. But where are those freight trains going after Ely? If running via Nuneaton and the West Coast Main Line to the North West and Scotland, they will simply run into the same congestion one the route via Stafford that Phase 2a of HS2 was meant to relieve by taking non-stop InterCity trains onto their own line.

But the position of the DNP on running HS2 to Euston instead of tipping all passengers out in Zone 2 makes quantum mechanics look simple! In the Prime Minister’s speech to his conference, Euston seemed safe. But subsequent reports suggested that the tunnels from Old Oak and the station itself would only be built if private funding could be found for 10,000 houses with a station on the side. Then Tweets sorry Xs from the Treasury, normally the villain of such pieces, were unequivocal that Euston would be built. As it should be, because to be blunt, without it the £44 billion or so now being invested in Phase 1 of HS2 has no significant value; with Euston, it has.

But what isn’t in the DNP? Nearly everything that matters if you want a step-change in rail capacity in the North. What’s the biggest problem today? Stations, and Manchester Piccadilly and Leeds in particular, both of which eke out capacity by putting two or even three trains into the same platform. This is operationally fragile as well as confusing for passengers, and if you lengthen trains to provide more seats, becomes impossible. By removing the London trains into their own station, HS2 would have freed two platforms at Piccadilly for local services to become at the very least more reliable, , and ultimately more numerous.

Is an obscure and shadowy process in a Manchester hotel room really how to decide to spend £36 billion of investment capital?

I’ve a small favour to ask…
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