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Paul Bigland

Category Archives: Economic illiteracy

Rishi Sunak, HS2 and the great transport betrayal.

05 Thursday Oct 2023

Posted by Paul Bigland in Economic illiteracy, Hs2, Politics, Rishi Sunak

≈ 7 Comments

Tags

Hs2, Politics, Rishi Sunak

We’re less than 24 hours from Sunak’s appalling speech to the Tory party conference and things are already falling apart for him. But that’s the problem when you tell lies, they’re often so easy to expose when honest folk start to do some investigating.

Remember the Sunak’s claim that, right up to the last moment ‘no decision’ had been made on HS2? He lied. Not only was that obvious when the ‘Network North’ document and fantasy shopping list was slipped out (which had clearly been cobbled together days before) but he also made a video for social media. ITV had a look at it – especially the background, and revealed it was made at least a week before conference. You can see their report here. This morning Transport Minister Mark Harper (another conference liar) has been touring the TV studios, essentially saying ‘so what’? Yeah, who cares that we have yet another Tory Prime Minister who lies so glibly?

Now the wheels are coming off some of the ridiculous claims of what projects the imaginary £36bn of ‘savings’ from scrapping Hs2 phase 2 will fund. Some of the projects are utterly batshit. The whole list seems to have been cobbled together by someone Googling old transport schemes or people’s aspirations without any consultation with people who know about transport. Hence the addition of two absolute howlers.

Apparently, Network North will build an extension of Manchester Metrolink to Manchester airport. There’s only one problem. That was completed in 2014. Another completed project included in the wish-list was highlighted by Nottingham MP Lilian Greenwood.

Another list of projects has mysteriously disappeared, as local BBC reporter Dan Holland has found.

The fact that most of these schemes are little more than vaporware is given away by a footnote on page 24, which says “As usual, individual projects referenced in this document will be subject to the approval of business cases“.

But, as many of them are basket cases, not business cases, they’ll never happen. Some would never get through Network Rail’s GRIP process (Governance for Railway Investment Projects), like the idea to electrify the Hope valley line between Manchester and Sheffield. Whose daft idea was it to prioritise that? We’ll never know as no-one’s putting their name to this list of fantasies. Certainly, no-one in the rail industry was consulted, or Northern Mayors. Back in 2015 the Northern Electrification Task Force (set up by the Transport Minister reported on the priorities for electrification in the North. Number 1 on the list of 12 routes was the Calder Valley (Leeds to Manchester and Preston via Bradford and Brighouse). I blogged about it at the time. You can find the full list here. Hope Valley came in tier 2, so why’s it been mentioned in this report ahead of all the others? How many marginal Tory constituencies are on the route I wonder, or on the route of some of the other invented schemes?

Here’s the list of tier 1 routes. Guess how many have been electrified since 2015? Not a single one!

  • Calder Valley (Leeds to Manchester and Preston via Bradford and Brighouse)
  • Liverpool to Manchester via Warrington Central
  • Southport/Kirkby to Salford Crescent
  • Chester to Stockport
  • Northallerton to Middlesbrough
  • Leeds to York via Harrogate
  • Selby to Hull
  • Sheffield (Meadowhall) to Leeds via Barnsley / Castleford & connections
  • Bolton to Clitheroe
  • Sheffield to Doncaster/Wakefield Westgate (Dearne Valley)
  • Hazel Grove to Buxton
  • Warrington to Chester

How many are on the fantasy list? Just one (Sheffield to Leeds) with no funding agreed.

The truth is – ‘Network North’ is a con, which is why the ‘North’ now includes the South-East and Devon and Cornwall! Just look at the map! It’s the whole of England (and a bit of Scotland)! Oh, and why is Manchester now where Preston is?

Money has been diverted from the North to imaginary schemes right across England. Worse, money that was building a new green railway now will (supposedly) built motorways and dual-carriageways, sometime in the future, maybe – ish. And fill in potholes. So much for ‘net zero’ – and so much for ambition.

Can you start seeing the size of the con yet?

We’re going from spades in the ground actually building something that’s been 15 years in planning to a series of schemes (some resurrected, others just dreamed-up) where the vast majority of them will never happen – but they will look good on election pamphlets in marginal constituencies in 2024.

One of the great ironies of all these is one of Sunak’s main justifications for scrapping HS2 phase 2 which is the fact it’s been repeatedly delayed. Yes, and whose bloody fault is that? His Governments! If the Tories hadn’t continually dithered and delayed, changed their minds and kept interfering in the plans, Phase 1 and 2a of HS2 would have opened in 2026 and 2027.

Now we see the Tories doing their damndest to sabotage the future through a scorched earth policy of selling off land earmarked for HS2 as quickly as possible to make it as difficult (and expensive) as possible for Labour to re-instate what’s been scrapped. It’s political cynicism and economic destructiveness at its worst.

There’s another problem too. Credibility. Who in the financial markets of business sectors will trust the word of this bunch of liars again? Why would anyone take the risk of investing in the UK when a government acts this way? Over the past few years the Tories have proved they simply can’t be trusted to keep their word, be it international agreements they admit they’d willingly renege on (brexit) to HS2.

A final problem. This is government by diktat. No-one was consulted about this. This is Sunak usurping power and ignoring the democratic process. Ignoring the will of Parliament, ignoring regional elected political leaders and ignoring the institutions of state such as bodies tasked to run the transport needs of the country. It’s profoundly undemocratic. We don’t even know who drew up this daft list of projects. All we know is no-one who matters was consulted – apart from the Tory Mayor of Birmingham, Andy Street, who was stopped from resigning (if the threat was ever real) by being fobbed of with the promise of a rail scheme he’s been fobbed off with in the past and which still hasn’t been delivered.

The whole of the UK not just the North should be appalled at what’s occurred. This is no way to plan anything – much less the economic wellbeing of a country. But that stopped mattering to the Tories years ago. Now all that matters is trying to cling to power.

It’s been said that what the Tory party conference was really about was a battle for the soul of the Conservative party. What that conference proved was that they don’t have one.

I’ve a small favour to ask…
If you enjoy reading this or any of the other blogs I’ve written, please click on an advert or two. You don’t have to buy anything you don’t want to of course – although if you did find something that tickled your fancy that would be fab! – but the revenue from them helps me to cover some of the cost of maintaining this site (which isn’t cheap and comes out of my own pocket). Remember, 99% of the pictures used in my blogs can be purchased as prints from my other website –  https://paulbigland.zenfolio.com/

Or – you can now buy me a coffee! https://ko-fi.com/paulbigland68312

Financial spin & contradictions from the anti Hs2 mob.

25 Wednesday Nov 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Anti Hs2 mob, Economic illiteracy, Hs2, Hs2aa, Northern Powerhouse, Politics, Rail Investment, StopHs2, Uncategorized

≈ 4 Comments

Tags

Hs2, Hs2aa, StopHs2

Today’s not been a good day for the anti hs2 campaign despite their high  expectations. For some reason they’d convinced themselves that there was trouble on the horizon for Hs2 and that the Autumn spending review might even see Hs2 cancelled as the Government ran out of money for investment.

For days they’d been circulating nonsense comparisons such as ‘defense spending or Hs2’ or  even ‘Police Officers or Hs2’. In the end the Chancellor made complete fools of them! Not only did he find new money for the armed forces and didn’t cut the police budget – he also confirmed extra money for transport investment including Trans-Pennine electrification and confirmed the Hs2 budget at £55.7bn in 2015 prices.

funding envelope

The poor anti Hs2 mob didn’t know how to respond. StopHs2’s Penny Gaines and Joe Rukin had been sitting by their keyboards, waiting to spin what they could, but found the cupboard was bare. They managed a few desultory tweets but Osborne had clearly wrong-footed them.

Once the news broke that the Hs2 budget had been adjusted they tried the usual daft spin to pretend that the budget for Hs2 is the same as the cost of Hs2. They were helped by one or two confused Journo’s who managed the same feat, so I must give credit to the BBC’s Paul Scoins (@paulscoins) who corrected a tweet when I pointed this out to him.

What wrong -footed the antis even more was the revelation that the updated budget also included the budget estimate for the Hs2 trains, meaning the increase was far smaller than they’d be trying to spin! What they’d failed to understand was the 2015 cost is simply the 2011 cost adjusted for inflation. Of course, if you’re going to adjust the Hs2 budget for inflation you also have to adjust the benefits of Hs2 by the same amount. Watch some of the antis really struggle with that little fact…

Meanwhile, in one of those wonderful ironies, whilst StopHs2 and a few other antis were trying to pretend that this is a real cost increase in Hs2, Hilary Wharf, a member of the other remaining anti Hs2 Group – Hs2aa – was with a group from Potter Row who were presenting their petition to the Hybrid Bill Committee. Wharf and Co are arguing for a fully bored tunnel under the Chilterns. Part of their argument was that the actual costs of tunnels can come in lower than initial budgets- a position in diametric opposition to their fellow travellers at StopHs2!

Worse was to come as details of Sir Peter Hendy’s report into Network Rail was released. This exposed the anti Hs2 mobs scaremongering on Hs2 sucking money from rail investment was complete nonsense. You can read the details on RAIL magazines website.

Crazy anti hs2 campaigner of the week – No 7

03 Friday Jul 2015

Posted by Paul Bigland in Anti Hs2 mob, Economic illiteracy, Hs2, Peter Jones

≈ 3 Comments

Tags

Anti Hs2 mob, economic illiteracy, Hs2, Peter Jones

Despite strong competition, this weeks award goes to Camden resident Peter Jones (who Tweets as Hs2DeadDuck) for this superb bit of financial illiteracy & economic nimbyism.

dead duck

Quite how overcrowding & a lack of rail capacity can be solved by less public subsidy is a mystery. As for the idea that, rather then providing the means for increasing numbers of people to travel to & from work we should simply price them off the railways – it’s the sort of bonkers nonsense that the Taxpayers Alliance would be proud of! Come to think of it, the anti Hs2 campaign does increasingly resemble the TPA in that it’s anti public transport – having switched from just opposing Hs2 to being against Hs3 & any other modern rail investment.

Jones neatly ignores the fact that the reason most people travel at peak times is that they have to in order to get to work on time! They have no option. If they can’t get on a train then either they have to find another way to get to work, or find another job. Clearly, retired Camden Nimbys like Jones consider themselves first & foremost & damn the rest of the UK, its economy and its environment. It’s the classic ‘I’m alright Jack’ attitude.

Now, assuming the vast majority of folks wouldn’t be looking for lower paid jobs elsewhere, how will they get to work? By coach or car, obviously. Both of which are far more dangerous than rail travel – and far more polluting. There’s also the small matter of where they park in London.

So, in one fell swoop, Jones is proposing to get a few more people killed in the inevitable road accidents that would follow, further damage the environment with the pollution these vehicles will cause, cause gridlock on London’s roads – and see us have to build vast multi-storey car parks to accommodate the vehicles. No doubt many of them will have to be built in Camden as it’s outside the congestion charge zone!

There’s also the small matter of freight too. Without the paths for freight that Hs2 frees up on the WCML we’ll be seeing more HGVs on our motorways – and London’s roads. Of course, the problem won’t just be confined to London. Hs2 frees up commuter capacity at other major city stations like Birmingham, Leeds, Sheffield & Manchester.

It’s absolutely bonkers but it very neatly illustrates the illogical mindset & ‘I’m alright Jack’ attitude that permeates the anti Hs2 campaign. These people try and hide their Nimbyism with a green figleaf, pretending they’re ‘environmentalists’ when it’s clear from what they claim they’re anything but. There’s only one thing they care about. Themselves. 

UPDATE:

Jones is also a very good example of the abusive (& downright defamatory) nature & tactics of many of the anti Hs2 campaigners – as this tweet from last night shows.

dead duck 4

I’ve a small favour to ask…
If you enjoy reading this or any of the other blogs I’ve written, please click on an advert or two. You don’t have to buy anything you don’t want to of course – although if you did find something that tickled your fancy that would be fab! – but the revenue from them helps me to cover some of the cost of maintaining this site (which isn’t cheap and comes out of my own pocket). Remember, 99% of the pictures used in my blogs can be purchased as prints from my other website –  https://paulbigland.zenfolio.com/

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