I don’t do this very often nowadays, mainly because British politics is in such a dire state that once I’d started I’d never stop! There’s only so much invective I could use before one can come up with before you’re tempted to resort to some good old fashioned Anglo-Saxon verbal shorthand!

However, Easter has given me time to think about what’s happening now that Sunak has bottled out of calling a May election. Truth be told, his utterances give the impression that he’d like to not call one at all. I’m beginning to think the unthinkable, that he may actually try and hang on until the last possible moment, which would mean a general election in January 2025. The more I see of the man the more I feel his absolutely no idea what he’s doing, other than desperately hoping things might pick up with the economy, the weather might stop a few more boats, and that he just might manage to get some people on a plane to Rwanda. I’m also suspecting one of the reasons he’s not keen on calling an election is he’s no idea what to put in an election manifesto. He and the Tories are so out of ideas they’ve nothing positive to sell to people. It’s no wonder Labour are keeping their policies and initiatives close to their chests as chances are the Tories are that bereft of ideas they’d nick them.

Every time I see Sunak on TV or hear him on the radio I cringe (and resist the temptation to throw things). His inane laughter and cheesy perma-grin just grates. No matter how serious the question he’s asked he laughs – as if the whole thing’s a joke. Not that voters are laughing. Judging by the polls it seems most people gave up believing the Tories quite some time ago. Here’s one from pollster Redfield Wilton, who are (themselves) regularly more optimistic about the Tories polling numbers.

From this it’s clear that Labour are holding their vote, but the Tories are hemorrhaging, with support draining away to Reform. This makes for some interesting scenarios – none of them good for the Tories. Mind you, they’re not good for Reform either because their polling numbers aren’t going to translate into seats won. Reform aren’t polling quite as well as UKIP did in their heyday. And how many seats did UKIP actually win before they crashed and burned? One (for a year).

What Reform are doing is help destroy the Tory party by dragging it further to the right. They’re not alone in this. The Tories (having lost the plot) are also influenced by another echo-chamber – GB ‘News’, the TV channel that’s really little more than a money-laundering operation that allows its millionaire owner to syphon off money in ridiculous salaries to Tory MPs on his books. The Tories, caught up in this hothouse, are falling for the idea they only way they’re going to win is by tacking ever further to the right to fight ‘woke wars’ as a smokescreen to avoid talking about what a shitshow they’ve made of the economy. As history has shown time and time again, the winning ground is neither left nor right, it’s in the centre. Still, if the Tories want to continue down this road, that’s fine by me. I can see where it’s leading even if they can’t. Some projections put the Tories on as little as 98 seats after the election, with many prominent Tories losing their seats. Notice I say prominent, not talented? After the shenanigans of the Johnson years, when the party was defenestrated by him with many of the intellectuals and ‘One nation’ old guard being thrown out, they were left with talentless horrors in their place – especially some of the ‘red wall’ intake (Gullis, Cates and Anderson) to add to the likes of Braverman, Patel and Jenrick. I wouldn’t trust some of these people to run a whelk stall, never mind a country.

I’ve a strong suspicion that the Tory party will split after their election hammering. No-one believes they can win (even many of their own MPs) the only question is just how bad a drubbing they’ll get. The ‘lucky’ ones who hold onto their seats will fight over the soul of the party (that’ll be difficult, it hasn’t got a soul: Ed) and the likelihood is the swivel-eyed right-wingers will win and drag it ever rightwards, making it untenable for any moderates who may survive. To add to the fun. If the remnant of the Tory party does split there’s every chance that the SNP would become the official opposition through sheer weight of numbers! This recent Survation polls for the Times/Sunday Times put the cat amongst the pigeons by outlining a possible seat scenario. But remember, these polls can’t take into account tactical voting, which has the potential to make the numbers even worse for the Tories.

How is Sunak going to pull this back? No-one believes he can. All he can do is hang on and pray. The longer he does, the more dosh he and his friends make as they wreck and asset-strip the country. What will be interesting to see is the result of the Mayoral and local elections on May 2nd when 107 local authorities across England go to the polls with just over 2000 seats up for grabs. If this turns into another Tory rout, will the Tories turn on Sunak?

Whatever happens and whenever he calls it, the next general election is going to be a popcorn event. I’ll certainly be ensuring I have a well-stocked fridge and the next day off – and I won’t be alone! The Tories are a dead man walking. The only question remaining is just how much more damage they’re going to do and how many more £bns they’re going to trouser/waste before they have their cold, dead hands prised away from the door of No 10…

All of which means Labour are going to have a mountain to climb once they’re in power. The Tories seem determined to leave scorched earth behind them. They don’t give a shit (literally) about the state of the country – all they care about is clinging on to power and a ticket for the gravy train. We may rejoice at them getting kicked out and adults being back in charge, but that’s when the hard work begins…

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